Where the 2008 and 2010 Elections Overlap

It’s Thursday, April 2, 2009. Here’s what we’re looking at:

After his defeat in court on Tuesday, former Senator Norm Coleman (R-MN) appears to be finished, despite his motion for appeal. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) has taken up the issue of seating Democrat Al Franken once again.

In New York’s 20th Congressional District, Democrat Scott Murphy leads Republican Jim Tedisco by only 25 votes. With the race to be decided by absentee ballots, Michael Barone of the Thomas Jefferson Street blog analyzes what we can expect.

Meanwhile, the 2010 elections have just begun. Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA) - who is currently the most vulnerable incumbent according to FiveThirtyEight.com - has already released this ad criticizing his likely primary opponent, former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA).



And with the troubles in the financial industry, the Chairman of the Senate Banking Committee - Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) - is at risk of losing his seat. A new Quinnipiac poll shows him 16 points behind former Rep. Rob Simmons (R-CT).

Nail-Biter in New York’s 20th

If you stayed up all night to watch the returns for the special election to replace now-Senator Kristin Gillibrand, you might want to turn off the TV, get some sleep, and come back to read the following summary of where we are.

MSNBC.com posted the latest regarding NY-20 less than an hour ago.

From NBC's Mark Murray
In the essentially tied special congressional election in New York, two things will now happen:

1) Counties will begin recanvassing the vote on Friday, although some counties will begin that as early as today.

2) Counties will need to begin counting absentee and military overseas ballots. Absentee ballots -- as many as 10,000 were requested -- have to be postmarked by Election Day and received by April 7. Military overseas ballots must be postmarked by Election Day and received by April 13. Some counties will wait to count these ballots until the April 7 and April 13 dates, while others will begin counting them as they come in.

Long story short, we probably won't know the winner until at least April 13.

Another thing: One vote count shows Democrat Scott Murphy leading Jim Tedisco by 59 votes and the other one has him leading by 65 votes. The discrepancy is due to the hand count in one precinct giving Tedisco six more votes than the machine count. This will obviously be resolved during the recanvass.

It looks like we may have another Minnesota on our hands (remember the Franken-Coleman debacle that still has not ended?)

Either way, stay tuned to WAYLA as we keep you up-to-date on this race in the weeks (or months) to come.

Wisconsin Heads to the Polls Next Week

Today WAYLA reports on local politics from Wisconsin.

The Badger State will vote for two important, non-partisan, state offices on Tuesday, April 7th - the State Supreme Court and State Superintendent.

State Supreme Court
The typical issues of crime and excessive lawsuits have come up recently in the race for state Supreme Court. While these issues have done well to elect conservative judges to the high court recently, it may not be as relevant this time around.

As we mentioned in a post in early February, the state’s business lobby - Wisconsin Manufacturers and Commerce - has decided to stay out of the race. So far they have certainly kept their word.

Unlike in years past - where conservative Supreme Court candidates won almost entirely because of WMC support - conservative judge Randy Koschnick faces an uphill battle against incumbent Chief Justice Shirley Abrahamson. Koschnick trails Abrahamson by considerable margins in campaign money and no third-party group has come to assist him.

Nonetheless, Koschnick remains optimistic. He says that because more than 4 in 10 likely voters are undecided he has a real chance knocking off the incumbent. But local political scientists disagree.

"In Wisconsin Supreme Court races, there is a large incumbency effect," said UW-Madison professor Katherine Cramer Walsh. "People don't follow the doings of the state Supreme Court."

Charles Franklin, a UW-Madison professor and co-founder of the Internet site www.pollster.com, was also hard-pressed to explain Koschnick's optimism.

"Challengers in nonpartisan spring elections face a huge problem gaining enough visibility and name recognition to mount an effective challenge," Franklin said. "To do so, they need large amounts of money, or the backing of powerful interests who advertise independently."

In an independent poll taken late last month, Abrahamson led Koschnick 41% to 13%. And since then Abrahamson has ramped up the campaign with ad-buys, where as Koschnick has suffered the consequences of poor fundraising and been unable to get on TV.

Even if Koschnick were to build name-recognition now it would likely be too late. Most of the time, the voters that wait until the final few days before the election to make their choice end up splitting their support about 50-50. Mathematically, Koschnick is almost entirely unable to win.

State Superintendent
It has become a heated race between the current deputy State Superintendent, Tony Evers, and the self-proclaimed outsider, Rose Fernandez.

Fernandez recently attacked Evers for an email exchange between him and a school administrator in Green Bay regarding a fundraising event. Jeff Dickert, the school administrator, did not realize it is illegal to use a state email account to discuss political fundraising. Fernandez called it a “win-at-all-cost mentality” that sets a poor example for Wisconsin schoolchildren.

Evers then countered with a press release from State Rep. Don Pridemore's office which called Evers “a bad choice to lead Wisconsin's Department of Public Instruction.” Evers' campaign manager Peter Knudsen said he did not have any evidence that Fernandez was involved, but “that's what we'd like to know.”

But the biggest issue in the race appears to be the involvement of WEAC - the state’s teachers union - which supports Evers. WEAC’s PAC has spent a total $574,000 on the race so far. Fernandez - who is running as the candidate of change to emulate the success of the Obama message, despite being the conservative candidate in the race - has attacked the union as a principle source of failure in the Wisconsin education system.

So who is more likely to win?

It’s a tough question - there is evidence for victory on both sides.

Evers has the support of WEAC which not only helps him financially, but WEAC is organized and can get teachers to the polls. There are already reports of calls to members telling them to vote early for Evers, and the calls can be expected to increase come GOTV weekend. There is no counter-WEAC group organized enough to give the same meaningful support to Fernandez.

Fernandez does, however, have plenty of support. She trailed Evers in the primary by only 4 points, and actually beat him in Milwaukee. Additionally, there are rumors that internal WEAC polling shows Fernandez ahead going into the general election.

For both races, we’ll know for sure a week from tonight.

Missed the Sunday Morning Talk Shows? We Got You Covered…

President Barack Obama on Face the Nation.


Watch CBS Videos Online

Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and Senator John McCain (R-AZ) on Meet the Press.

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

Obama All Over the Friday News

It’s Friday, March 27, 2009. Here’s what we’re looking at:

President Barack Obama will appear on the CBS Sunday morning talk show, “Face the Nation”. His Treasury Secretary, Tim Geithner, and former opponent, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), will appear on the NBC equivalent, “Meet the Press”.

The President has taken an interest in the New York Congressional race to replace now-Senator Kristin Gillibrand. The DNC has released the following ad.



Obama’s virtual town hall meeting opened up a lot of questions on the same topic - marijuana. Politico has the story.

And most importantly, the President will redirect troops to Afghanistan. The strategy is said to require more than 4,000 additional troops in the volatile country.

California Budget Left to Voters

Today WAYLA reports on local politics from California.

The people of the Golden State will go to the polls for a special election in May to decide a number of important ballot measures.

With projected budget shortfalls - which California is not unfamiliar with already - the State Legislature and Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger have reached a deal to make cuts and raise taxes to correct the budget problems in the midst of a slow economy. Five important pieces of the budget corrections will have to be approved by the voters.

According to a new poll, none of these proposals have a very positive outlook.

Proposition 1A
This measure would cap state spending while extending billions in temporary tax hikes for two years. It has drawn considerable attention from conservative talk radio and even the unions are considering a campaign against the proposition. If the election were today it would fail to pass by a 46%-39% margin.

Proposition 1B
This measure would make up for education cuts in 2009 by increasing funding for education in the future. The powerful teachers’ union supports the proposition - a major reason why it is included in the proposals. Voters are split with 44% supporting and 41% opposed.

Proposition 1C
By far the least popular measure, it would let the state borrow $5 billion against future lottery revenues - the most important part of the budget solution. If it were on the ballot today it would be defeated by a 50%-37% margin.

Propositions 1D and 1E
These are twin measures to loosen restrictions on money that Californians have dedicated solely to children's health and mental health programs under previous initiatives. While they fall short of the necessary 50% threshold at this point, they are both slimly more backed than opposed.

With such lukewarm support to some measures, and outright opposition to others, state leaders are eager to campaign for the proposals.

The dynamics of the special election are volatile, and public opinion could swing dramatically once campaign advertising begins. The poll found more than 10% of likely voters are undecided on most of the ballot measures. Also, voter turnout is likely to be low, and it is unclear what mix of Californians will wind up casting ballots in the oddly timed election.

…Schwarzenegger and Democrats who lead the Legislature have joined forces to raise money for mail and television ads promoting the ballot measures. The Republican governor, state Assembly Speaker Karen Bass (D-Los Angeles) and Senate leader Darrell Steinberg (D-Sacramento) also have pushed the measures in joint meetings with opinion writers at major newspapers in the state.

On Wednesday, Schwarzenegger said failure to pass the measures would be "disastrous" for California.

But many of these politicians are feeling the pressure of a lack of public approval. The California GOP has decided to cut campaign funds from the six Republicans that voted for the budget compromise and three of those Republicans are facing recall threats from angry conservative activists.

And Schwarzenegger and the State Legislature are facing their own unhappiness from constituents.

…the poll raises new doubts about Schwarzenegger's effectiveness as a messenger in the campaign. His popularity matches the record low he set in December 2005, with 33% of likely voters approving of his job performance and 57% disapproving. For the first time, even a majority of Republicans questioned by the Public Policy Institute pollsters give Schwarzenegger negative job ratings.

The Legislature, too, is at a record low, with an 11% job approval rating and 80% disapproval.

If the measures fail to pass the State Legislature and governor will have to rethink their approach to fiscal discipline during the recession.

Tony Quinn, a nonpartisan election analyst who specializes in California politics, said voters seem to be so turned off by Sacramento's dysfunction that they have not focused on the gravity of the budget measures on the May ballot.

If voters reject them, he said, lawmakers will "finally have to do some things that the public notices."

"What about early release of low-risk prisoners? That might not be very popular, but they may be forced to," he said. "What about reducing Highway Patrol hours? Or not having as many cops on the beat?"

For these reasons, state leaders will want to get the budget figured out sooner than later - specifically with these proposals. Their campaigns for these measures must succeed for their own sakes. Otherwise they might face even greater political pressure.

Bloomberg Continues to Top the Polls

Today WAYLA reports on local politics from New York City.

A new Quinnipiac poll finds that New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg continues to be viewed favorably by his constituents. Some results in the polls are rather striking.

For example, 55% of residents said they would describe Bloomberg as "cold and businesslike" while only 30% said he was "warm and friendly". Yet 62% still approve of the job he’s doing.

Bloomberg, it seems, would agree that he doesn’t need to be "warm and friendly" to be a good mayor.

"These are very serious times," he said. "I don't find anything warm and fuzzy about the potential of people losing their jobs or losing their homes.

"I don't find anything warm and fuzzy about city government having to reduce expenses and find alternative revenue sources. That's the job, and that's what I'm going to do."

Despite a four-point drop in his approval rating - due to budget cuts and tax hikes that came with the poor economy - pollsters say Bloomberg doesn’t need to sweat. According to Maurice Carroll, who directed the poll, "his job approval has gone from astronomical to merely stratospheric…He's within the atmosphere [now]."

And to make matters worse for his 2009 competitors, his name recognition is difficult to beat. Rep. Anthony Weiner (D-NY) - who said he may drop his candidacy due to the economic work that needs to be done in Washington - has only 44% name recognition.

City Comptroller Bill Thompson is looking to the black community to be a major factor of his overall support. But the poll found only 44% of African Americans could identify the official.

And Bloomberg continues to beat them in hypothetical head-to-head races. If Thompson was to win the Democratic Primary and face Bloomberg today, the incumbent would win 49%-35%. If Weiner was to face Bloomberg today, Bloomberg would win 46%-36%.

Of course, Bloomberg will not be facing anyone until November, which gives all candidates time to wage the tough campaign.

"Bloomberg is so far ahead - he won't be that far in November - but what difference does it make?" Carroll said.

He predicted voters will peel off as the budget cuts start to affect communities and as the campaign heats up and he cautioned that Bloomberg's image as "cold and businesslike" could hurt him.

"People like to like the people they vote for," he said.

But polls from 2004 also showed New York City residents to view Bloomberg as cold and in 2005 he was re-elected by a landslide. And with him this far ahead already, will his challengers really be able to climb back?

Only time will tell.

Is the Stimulus More Popular Than Republicans Anticipated?

Today WAYLA reports on local politics from South Carolina.

In recent weeks Governor Mark Sanford (R-SC) has been earning national attention for his opposition to the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act.

He has twice requested that this cornerstone legislation of President Obama’s economic plan be used to pay down South Carolina’s debt rather than job creation and public works. The White House told him he must spend the money as the law stipulates.

And while Sanford is becoming better known among Americans, he has not been doing so well among his constituents.

From The State:

Many speculate Sanford is planning to run for president in 2012 and is opposing the stimulus plan to win praise from Republican hardliners.

That infuriates some South Carolinians who think they are left to deal with the impact of Sanford’s decisions while he draws praise nationally.

"He’s stirred up strong feelings amongst his constituents, and failed to adequately address those feelings, which is one of the biggest mistakes in crisis communications," said Jonathan Bernstein, who owns a California-based crisis communications firm. "So people will, no doubt, reach their own conclusions as to the governor’s motives."

With a 10.4% unemployment rate in South Carolina - the second highest in the nation - many South Carolinians are desperate for job creation. Unsurprisingly, Sanford’s approach to the recession has made him slip in the polls.

A new poll commissioned by South Carolina Senate Democratic Caucus finds that residents disagree with Sanford’s stance on the stimulus by a 53%-37% margin. Even worse for Sanford, President Obama is seen considerably more favorable than the governor.


Although a poll taken on behalf of a partisan institution is not completely reliable, individual stories of discontent from residents should draw concern.

Out-of-work electrician Everette Walker needed no prompting to express his feelings about Gov. Mark Sanford’s leadership.

"The man is selfish," said Walker, 62. "Here’s a man with a $3.5 million home who doesn’t care if the rest of South Carolina can afford a loaf of bread. It sets me on fire."

…Donna Maddox of Lexington considers herself a Republican but is concerned about Sanford’s rejection of stimulus money that could extend benefits for the unemployed and create jobs.

"My light bill is due next week, and I have no way to pay it. My house payment is due the first of April, and I can’t pay," said Maddox, whose husband was laid off in January from his longtime job.

A homemaker with medical problems, Maddox spent Wednesday afternoon at Harvest Hope Food Bank, filling out paperwork and getting a grocery cart full of groceries.
Maddox thinks paying down debt is a good idea. But, she adds, "We’re not promised tomorrow."

"Whoever thought I’d be here today, getting food? We need help now."

This is yet another case of local Republican politicians using the stimulus bill as a basis for opposing the Democrats and advancing their careers. But it is a major gamble to bet against the stimulus succeeding.

If the stimulus works nationally, but South Carolina is left behind due to Gov. Stanford’s ambitions, he should know he will be doomed politically - whether he is running for President or not.

Olympic Games Must Overcome Local Politics

Today WAYLA reports on local politics from Chicago.

According to GamesBids.com, Chicago has moved into last place in likeliness to host the 2016 Olympic Games. The speculated frontrunners are Tokyo and Rio de Janeiro with Madrid and Chicago a little further behind.

But despite the weary outlook for Mayor Daley’s hopes to host the world’s most important sporting events, the public enthusiasm for the games does not have a very positive outlook either.

Several political groups in the city are taking a strong stand against the Olympics, going so far as to plan protests for an International Olympic Committee visit to the candidate city. The money to be spent on the games, some argue, could be better used for public needs. Others cite the potential harm the games would do to the local environment and architectural integrity.


From today’s Chicago Tribune:

"If [Daley] wants to air his dirty laundry to the world, that is entirely up to him," Denise Dixon, a member of a group pressing for contracts and housing for poor people and minorities, said at a City Hall news conference last week. "He doesn't want to see demonstrations in the street when they get here. He better come up with something."

…Asked about possible protests, Daley said…"First of all, we don't even have it. ... This is not a sure thing. Maybe people think it is, but you do not have it"

…Daley has said no city money would be used for the Games, despite a $500 million guarantee from the city against any operating deficit and a pledge that property-tax money would be used to help build the $1 billion athletes' village on the site of Michael Reese Hospital.

Daley also argued that support for the Olympics is strong in Chicago, with 77% of residents saying they backed the bid in an October survey.

But according to a poll conducted by the Tribune last month, while 64% of residents approved of Daley’s push for the Olympics, 75% were against the use of taxpayer funds to cover any private financial shortfalls, and 54% believed that private funding would not be able to fully cover the costs.

Ultimately, with these public perceptions, it should not be a surprise if support for the Olympics in Chicago continues to fall.

And while the IOC is used to protests on their visits, public support is a major factor for a bid. In order to get the games, Daley and Chicago 2016 need to better boost public approval.

No Posts for a Few Days...

We just wanted to let you know that there won't be any more posts for the rest of the week.

We will, however, continue to update the headlines.

We'll see you again on Monday!

There’s No One as Irish as Bárack O’Bama

During the 2008 Presidential primary season, a lot of discoveries were made regarding the heritage and ancestry of then-Senator Barack Obama. One of the discoveries was that the man who would become the first African-American president would also be an Irish-American president.

In 1850, Falmouth Kearney (Obama’s great-great-great grandfather) left the small Irish village of Moneygall in County Offaly and came to the United States. This makes President Obama 3.1% Irish.

And according to a story in Politico last week, the Irish community is eager for the new President to embrace this heritage.

The relationship is a stretch, but the Irish — both in the U.S. and abroad — have since become fixated with turning Obama into O’Bama.

"He’s as much Irish as he is Kenyan," said Irish American Democrats President Stella O’Leary. "He’s been very wrapped up in his African-American heritage. But we will welcome him with open arms."

Obviously that’s not completely true - as he is 50% Kenyan - but such facts have little resonance with his Irish brethren.

In Moneygall, there’s been a move to build an Obama exhibit near Kearney Gardens, ancestral land that officials say belonged to the Kearney family. And an Irish band known as the Corrigan Brothers has grabbed the international limelight with an infectious hit called "There’s No One as Irish as Barack Obama."

With St. Patrick’s Day fast approaching in Washington, Irish-American politicians, lobbyists and even local Irish pub owners are urging Obama to publicly embrace his Irish lineage.

"God bless Falmouth Kearney, he married into good stock. It’s been a wonderfully pleasant surprise," said American Ireland Fund President Kieran McLoughlin. "And now the main platform to showcase that [connection] occurs in about a week."

In fact, there has been several variations of the song “There’s No One as Irish as Barack Obama” to go along with the progress of his rise to the Presidency. We posted one - a traditional folk version filmed in an Irish pub - the day before the 2008 General Election.



The latest version is more Rock n’ Roll and includes an animated music video that can be found here.

With the arrival of St. Patrick’s Day, the American press has also been talking up Obama’s Irish roots.

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

In fact, Obama’s cousin Henry Haley was featured in an advertisement by the Irish American Democrats last year, hoping to build support for Obama in the Irish-American community before the election.

Haley even attended the group’s inaugural ball in Washington, bringing with him a letter from the people of Moneygall inviting the newly-sworn-in President to visit the village. Unfortunately he never caught a glimpse of his cousin. As he told Politico "It’s surreal to think that I share the same ancestry as the most powerful man in the world…[but] I think he’s had more important things on his mind than to contact a very distant relative in Ireland."

Yet that’s not to say that our first black President hasn’t considered the importance of his Irish heritage. Like the struggles of African-Americans, he has spoken of the struggles endured by Irish-American immigrants, and he has told the story of St. Patrick as a story of hope.

These were the words he used at a St. Patrick’s Day dinner in Scranton, PA last year:



Happy St. Patrick’s Day!

More of What Change Looks Like

It’s Monday, March 16, 2009. Here’s what we’re looking at:

The Obama Administration will no longer refer to detainees as “enemy combatants” - a tactic used by the Bush Administration to hold prisoners for long periods of time without trial.

This news comes at the same time as a newly-leaked Red Cross report which found the CIA was using torture.

You’ll be getting emails from the Obama folks again! According to a Democratic official, Obama will ask people who volunteered for his presidential campaign to go door-to-door to gather signatures from neighbors to support his budget.

Finally, Dr. Christina Romer - head of the President’s Council of Economic Advisors - and House Minority Whip Eric Cantor (R-VA) discuss the changing economic outlook of the United States on Meet the Press.

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

New Gallup Polls - Congress and Climate Change

It’s Friday, March 13, 2009. Here’s what we’re looking at:

Two new polls released by Gallup lately give interesting signs about the American electorate.

The first is Congressional approval ratings. This month, Americans gave Congress a four-year high mark. 39% of Americans approve of the job Congress is doing.


Republicans were quick to point out that is was Democrats that were particularly supportive of the 111th Congress. One GOP aide told Politico

"It seems to show a widening of a partisan divide, not the post-partisan Nirvana we were promised. The increase is all from Democrats,” the aide said. “Gallup has another poll out today that shows eight out of 10 Democrats trust government more than they trust the private sector. So it’s little wonder that Democrats like this Congress — they’re making government bigger each and every day."

It is partially true. Democratic approval of Congress has surged from 17% in the beginning of the year to 57% in March. Independents, however, are also giving Congress higher marks - up from 17% in January to 34% in March.


Even Republican approval hasn’t dropped too much - down just 1% from the beginning of the year.

Pleased with these numbers, the DNC launched a new "Party of No" clock on their website. It features a picture of John Boehner, Eric Cantor, and Mitch McConnell wearing “no” buttons. The goal is to pressure the Republicans into offering an alternative to President Obama’s proposed budget, or to get in line and support it.

The second Gallup poll released Wednesday found that Americans are becoming more skeptical towards the severity of global warming. 41% of Americans now believe that the seriousness of climate change is exaggerated by the news media.



Republicans and older Americans are among the most skeptical.





There is also a significant drop in the number of people who believe the effects of global warming have already began.



The “Bottom Line” according to Gallup:

Americans generally believe global warming is real. That sets the U.S. public apart from the global-warming skeptics who assembled this week in New York City to try to debunk the science behind climate change. At the same time, with only 34% of Americans saying they worry "a great deal" about the problem, most Americans do not view the issue in the same dire terms as the many prominent leaders advancing global warming as an issue.

Importantly, Gallup's annual March update on the environment shows a drop in public concern about global warming across several different measures, suggesting that the global warming message may have lost some footing with Americans over the past year.

This may have interesting implications to Government action on green technology and climate change legislation over the next year.

Who Lead Healthier Lives - Democrats or Republicans?

A recent letter to the editor of the International Journal of Epidemiology argued that Republicans lead healthier lives than Democrats.

The authors of the referred study - a doctoral student and a professor of health studies, both at Harvard University - suggested that:

"The observation that [R]epublicans enjoy better health status may reflect the core [R]epublican value of individual responsibility, which could translate into increased adherence to health-promoting behaviours."

Overall, the study controlled the factors of age, sex, race, marital status, religious service attendance, highest educational degree, and total family income (all of which have their own implications towards an individual’s health) and found Republicans were 25% less likely than Democrats to be in poor health.

In making these observations, they analyzed General Social Survey data from 1972-2006. The number one factor they found in contributing to this difference in health and political ideology was smoking. Democrats, they found, were 15% more likely to be smokers.


The study also found that Republicans might enjoy greater well-being because of a greater sense of spirituality "which may lead to health promoting social conditions such as enhanced social ties and networks."

Andrew at FiveThirtyEight.com took issue with these findings. In a post last night he wrote:

"I think a lot more could, and should, be done here, for example using the full four-point scale for self-reported health and having a better understanding of the transition from raw comparisons to the regression model."

He also mentioned a cause-and-effect issue at hand - as people get sick and need access to health care they may find themselves aligning more with the Democrats - although he was not totally convinced of that notion himself.

So are Republicans really healthier than Democrats?

As we mentioned in our post from Tuesday, there is an interesting new database published by America’s Health Insurance Plans (AHIP) - a lobby group for the Health Insurance industry - that looks into healthiness of Americans by state and congressional districts.

So we compiled some of the data from these "Resource for Well-Being" reports and compared them to the 2008 Election Results on a state-by-state basis.

We looked at four areas along the lines of the Harvard study - Healthy Behavior, Physical Health, Emotional Health, and the overall Well-Being Index (a function of the previous three areas, as well as Life Evaluation, Work Quality, and Basic Access to health care). Here is what we found:


The general trend here seems to be that the residents of blue states tend to adhere to healthier lifestyles. The more Democratic they vote, the better they tend take care of themselves. The top 5 states in this category were 1) New Mexico; 2) Vermont; 3) Montana; 4) Hawaii; and 5) California.


Again, the general trend here appears to be better physical health for states that vote more heavily Democratic. However, the top 5 states in this category were 1) Montana; 2) Wyoming; 3) Hawaii; 4) Colorado; and 5) North Dakota - only one of which is seen as a regular “blue state”. More telling is the bottom 5 states: 46) Oklahoma; 47) Arkansas; 48) Mississippi; 49) Kentucky; and 50) West Virginia - all of which are consistently red.


In terms of emotional health, we didn’t even bother trying to put a line on the graph - it’s too scattered. It seems there is almost no correlation between emotional health and political ideology. The top 5 states in this category were 1) Hawaii; 2) Alaska; 3) Wyoming; 4) Minnesota; and 5) Montana.

What is more interesting is that, of the top 10 states here, six of them were northern Prairie / Mountain states. Hawaii - which was by far the most Democratic-supportive state in 2008 (at 72%) - was also by far the most emotionally healthy state (though probably because people tend to be happy when they live in a tropical paradise).


Finally, we found that the general trend (in terms of the Well-Being function) was that states that were more Democratic-supportive tended to have higher well-being among their residents. However, there were yet again several peculiarities. The top 5 states in this category were 1) Utah; 2) Hawaii; 3) Wyoming; 4) Colorado; and 5) Minnesota.

It is important to mention that, unlike the Harvard study, we analyzed our data on a state-by-state basis rather than at the micro level. This might have important implications. For example, in California the suburban, GOP-voting Orange County resident might be getting more exercise than the inner-city, Democratic-voting, single parent of Los Angeles.

We also did not perform a control on factors such as age, race, gender, etc. There is no question that this accounts for a lot of differences between our figures and those of the Harvard study. It would not be farfetched to say that this is a shortfall in our analyses.

For example, men are more likely to vote Republican than women, and men have a shorter life expectancy than women. African-Americans are generally more susceptible to diseases such as cancer and diabetes, they are by far the most Democratic-supportive race in the United States, and the black population is not as widespread among the states as Whites or Latinos.

However, we doubt that the Harvard study made realistic conclusions. First of all, they used a lot of outdated data. For example, it is prudent to assume that smoking has decreased significantly among Democrats since 1972, and that Republicans may very well be smoking more than Democrats these days.

While we generally find that Democrats lead healthier lives in our own simulations, the most realistic conclusion to make is that political ideology has little-to-no bearing on the well-being of an individual. A more obvious trend is healthiness by region - those living in the Western states tend to be particularly healthy while those living in the Rust Belt and Appalachia are among the unhealthiest of Americans.

That being said, finding correlations between party-affiliation and things like healthiness are very interesting, and we hope to see more studies and discussions like this in the future.

Little Hope in Sight for Virginia Republicans

Today WAYLA reports on local politics from Virginia.

On February 28th the Virginia General Assembly adjourned for the year - not to meet again until January 2010. Until then they will be fighting for their seats as state elections come in November.

As we’ve mentioned before, the House of Delegates is among the last pieces of Government still controlled by the Virginia GOP - and keeping that institution red may be difficult in 2009.

On Monday, Republican Delegate Clarke Hogan announced he would retire from the House, citing the responsibilities of owning and operating a business during tough economic times. But his decision to not seek a fifth term may be due to a sign of the times - a commonwealth quickly turning Democratic, and the possibility of having to serve in the minority.

Hogan will soon be speaking to Republicans considering a run to replace him, but from the look of things, Democrats are already eyeing the seat.

David M. Guill, a member of the Charlotte County Board of Supervisors, has filed his certificate of candidate qualification with the State Board of Elections. And House Minority Leader Del. Ward L. Armstrong, (D-Henry), said that other people expressed interest in the seat upon Hogan's unexpected announcement Sunday.

"We look to field a strong candidate and that's clearly a seat that we're interested in," Armstrong said. "That's what I would call pretty much a swing district [now]."

And Hogan is not the first, but the fourth Republican delegate to recently announce retirement.

If that’s not enough somber news for the Virginia GOP, then this surely should be - Delegate Jeff Frederick, chairman of the state party, is facing the prospect of a coup. Following a string of embarrassing stunts that put the party’s credibility at risk (or rather in disarray) a vote for his removal has been scheduled for April 4th.

Six GOP state Senators signed on to the coup yesterday, citing a blog post Frederick made on Twitter that released confidential GOP plans to turn a Democratic state Senator into a Republican.

But despite these GOP implosions, the question of whether or not Virginia is yet a “blue state” is up in the air. Two contributors to the Perpetual Post took two different stances on the question back in January.

The extent to which ideology has shifted in this traditionally-red-state is unclear. However, the Commonwealth’s GOP certainly appears to have some internal problems which are putting the party’s chances at retaining the House of Delegates at serious risk. In order to complete Virginia’s blue revolution, Democrats can only hope these problems persist.

The Struggling GOP and the Healthiest Americans

It’s Tuesday, March 10, 2009. Here’s what we’re looking at:

Who is the true leader of the Republican Party? According to a new poll, more than two thirds of Americans say the GOP has no real leader.



Republicans are finding it difficult to attack Obama - especially the three dozen or so who represent districts that he won.

Finally, what Congressional Districts have the best well-being? Which ones are the happiest? Which ones have the most poverty? Which ones are the most educated? You can find out here.


Above is one example - the Congressional Districts by Work Quality.

Local Politicians to be Held to Higher Standards

Today WAYLA reports on local politics from Louisiana.

In a humorous bit of news last week, the Jefferson Parish Council unanimously approved a measure to have elected officials in the local government face drug tests.

The measure is meant to hold politicians - including the Parish President - to the same standards as parish employees, who also undergo drug testing.

According to the Times-Picayune, the American Civil Liberties Union has already compared the new policy to an “illegal search warrant,” despite the lack of opposition.


Councilman Chris Roberts - who pitched the idea - claims to have no target in mind among the eight elected officials in parish government.

It is also unclear what penalties an elected official might incur if they fail a test.

Why make such legislation at all?

It does not appear that there is any sort of widespread drug problem among Louisiana’s elected officials. Even if there were, studies show that Americans are generally becoming more accepting of illicit drug use - especially marijuana.


But socially-conservative politicians in states like Louisiana may be trying to make a point about civil liberties. The idea that your privacy is only important when you have something to hide is the idea that won last week in Jefferson Parish.

And Roberts said he had heard from state lawmakers that there could be legislation in Baton Rouge soon to make his policy change a state law.

Approval Ratings - Does Obama Have Anything to Worry About?

A new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll released Tuesday shows Obama doing well with public opinion.

In the survey, 68 percent have a favorable opinion of the president, including 47 percent whose opinion is "very positive" — both all-time highs for Obama in the poll. Moreover, 67 percent say they feel more hopeful about his leadership and 60 percent approve of his job in the White House.

Yet the percentage of Americans who are confident that Obama has the right goals and policies for the country — 54 percent — is slightly smaller, suggesting that the president is more popular than his policies are.

On the other side of the spectrum, Republicans are taking a lot of heat for being too partisan.

Just 26 percent view the Republican Party positively, which is an all-time low for the party. That's compared with 49 percent who have a favorable view of the Democratic Party.

On the economy, not only do voters believe Democrats are better suited for fixing it than Republicans (48%-20%), but they are giving Obama a long leash. Only after 18 more months of recession (by September 2010) will the majority of voters blame Obama for the weak economy - about the same number that expect it to be over by then.

If the economists are right, this is good news for Obama. Nate Silvers from FiveThirtyEight.com charts the different expectations between economists and voters.



But perhaps most significant figure in the poll was this:

…these attitudes about Obama have helped fuel a big jump in the percentage of Americans who believe the U.S. is headed in the right direction, according to the poll. In January’s NBC/Journal poll, 26 percent said the country was on the right track; now 41 percent think that.

Will this Democratic honeymoon last?

Although American generally viewed the GOP negatively, the Republican message seems to be rubbing off.

The top three concerns about Obama's stimulus were that it contains too much pork-barrel spending, that its tax cuts are too small and that the spending is focused in the wrong areas.

What's more, 61 percent say they're more concerned that the federal government will spend too much money and will increase the size of the deficit, than they are concerned that the government will spend too little money in trying to get out of the recession.

In fact, while Obama’s approval rating has been consistently hovering between 60-70%, his disapproval rating has been growing steadily.

From Gallup Daily:



And the figures from the Real Clear Politics poll averages seem to confirm this trend.



As long as the old Reaganite arguments work, the GOP will continue to use them - even if it means appearing partisan in the short term. After all, once public opinion shifts on economic policies (to “doesn’t stimulus mean big government?”) the political environment could be dangerous for Democrats.