Summary: A consultant for Joe Sestak opens up about the story behind a great attack ad.
At HSG Campaigns, we like to say that campaigning is both an art and a science.
On one hand, there is a very simple, data-driven process which - if applied correctly - can optimize the number of votes a candidate receives in an election. On the other hand, there is an integral creative process that requires a lot of hard work and sheer political skill.
In the recent Democratic Primary in Pennsylvania between Sen. Arlen Specter and Rep. Joe Sestak, one political ad reflected both components of successful campaigning.
Recently, Fox 29 News in Philadelphia interviewed Sestak consultant J.J. Balaban of the Campaign Group - a friend of HSG Campaigns - about the ad.
As you can see, Balaban applied both processes very well.
It’s an Art…
Fitting that much great footage into 30 seconds is no easy task. The Campaign Group carefully edited in what they felt was the best possible scenes that would be embarrassing to Specter’s new Democratic affiliation.
They successfully created a narrative of Specter that made him both a Republican and a politician who would do anything to get re-elected.
Deciding to end it with an image of Sarah Palin rather than George W. Bush was a particularly good idea. Palin is much more relevant to the political scene today and Bush’s image had already been used throughout the spot.
It’s a Science…
Often times the success of a campaign will come down to how well voters were targeted. In a Democratic Primary, the bloc to target is pretty simple: Democrats. To this extent, the Campaign Group knew they needed to undermine Specter as an acceptable candidate for a Democratic nomination - and as we pointed out with the narrative they constructed - they successfully did just that.
Of course, the science side of it was more complex than that. They no doubt relied on a lot of data to tell them what media markets to play the ad in and how often to play it there. Unfortunately (and for good reason) a consultant isn’t going to be as open about those data as he or she would be about the creative process.
Congratulations to the Campaign Group and the Sestak Campaign!
Showing posts with label Arlen Specter. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Arlen Specter. Show all posts
Wednesday, June 2, 2010
Wednesday, May 19, 2010
Were Yesterday’s Voters Anti-Incumbents or Anti-Centrists?
Summary: Why all the “anti-establishment” rhetoric is only half of the story.
Last night, the May 18th Democratic primaries in Pennsylvania and Arkansas were characterized as anti-incumbency elections while the GOP primary in Kentucky was noted - at the very least - for being an anti-establishment contest.
In Pennsylvania, five-term Senator Arlen Specter was defeated in a Democratic primary against Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA). In Arkansas, Senator Blanche Lincoln was forced into a run-off against Lt. Governor Bill Halter in their Democratic primary. Meanwhile in Kentucky, the Tea Party candidate Rand Paul crushed Washington-backed candidate Trey Grayson in a Republican primary.
Politico had this to say:
There certainly was an anti-incumbency and anti-establishment mood among voters yesterday - there’s no denying that.
Last month we pointed to a Gallup poll that found voters more upset with incumbents than ever. For the first time in 20 years, less than a majority of Americans (49%) said that their member of Congress deserved re-election while an incredible 40% said they did not.
But this is only half of the story.
If you look at all the incumbents who lost in primaries in recent elections, there is one thing that makes them all similar - they were centrists.
In 2006, Senator Joe Lieberman was upset by the viscerally liberal Ned Lamont in a Democratic primary because of the incumbent’s support for the Iraq War. Lieberman was forced to become an independent in order to keep his Senate seat.
Similarly, Governor Charlie Crist (R-FL) has been forced out of the GOP in the Florida Senate race. Although he had not yet faced the more conservative Marco Rubio in a primary, Crist dropped out from his party and is now running as an independent.
Specter made a similar move last year to avoid a risky Republican primary with the more conservative Pat Toomey. He hoped that by becoming a Democrat he could hang on to his seat. In the end he was forced out of office in a Democratic primary by a more liberal opponent.
Even in Arkansas - a state that is by no means liberal - Blanche Lincoln is still fighting off a challenge from a more liberal primary contender. The Paul-Grayson matchup in Kentucky also characterizes a loss for the middle-of-the-road.
So why is this the trend?
An important rule for political success is “keep your base happy” - once they’re less than thrilled with your performance they’ll either stay home in a general election or vote you out in a primary. The base is the source of support that is constantly motivated politically.
Moderate voters don’t pay all that much attention to politics and they don’t vote as regularly - and they certainly don’t vote as often in primaries. They don’t tend to knock on doors or make phone calls. They’re not dependable for political success.
In recent years these facts have become all the more important - when raising small amounts of money online from your base is easier than getting a few large contributions from richer non-political donors, appealing more to the base is critical.
Ultimately this is very characteristic of why the American political landscape is as polarized as it is at the moment.
So as much as it’s true that Washington is unpopular and the incumbency effect seems like a less positive trait than usual, keep this in mind: incumbents and establishment candidates will do fine this year.
So long as they steer clear of the middle.
Last night, the May 18th Democratic primaries in Pennsylvania and Arkansas were characterized as anti-incumbency elections while the GOP primary in Kentucky was noted - at the very least - for being an anti-establishment contest.
In Pennsylvania, five-term Senator Arlen Specter was defeated in a Democratic primary against Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA). In Arkansas, Senator Blanche Lincoln was forced into a run-off against Lt. Governor Bill Halter in their Democratic primary. Meanwhile in Kentucky, the Tea Party candidate Rand Paul crushed Washington-backed candidate Trey Grayson in a Republican primary.
Politico had this to say:
The anti-establishment, anti-incumbent fevers on display Tuesday are not new…[but] what’s now clear, in a way that wasn’t before, is that these results reflect a genuine national phenomenon, not simply isolated spasms in response to single issues or local circumstances.
This is a stark and potentially durable change in politics. The old structures that protected incumbent power are weakening. New structures, from partisan news outlets to online social networks, are giving anti-establishment politicians access to two essential elements of effective campaigns: publicity and financial support.
In effect, the anti-institutional forces that coalesced in recent years now look like an institutional force of their own.
There certainly was an anti-incumbency and anti-establishment mood among voters yesterday - there’s no denying that.
Last month we pointed to a Gallup poll that found voters more upset with incumbents than ever. For the first time in 20 years, less than a majority of Americans (49%) said that their member of Congress deserved re-election while an incredible 40% said they did not.
But this is only half of the story.
If you look at all the incumbents who lost in primaries in recent elections, there is one thing that makes them all similar - they were centrists.
In 2006, Senator Joe Lieberman was upset by the viscerally liberal Ned Lamont in a Democratic primary because of the incumbent’s support for the Iraq War. Lieberman was forced to become an independent in order to keep his Senate seat.
Similarly, Governor Charlie Crist (R-FL) has been forced out of the GOP in the Florida Senate race. Although he had not yet faced the more conservative Marco Rubio in a primary, Crist dropped out from his party and is now running as an independent.
Specter made a similar move last year to avoid a risky Republican primary with the more conservative Pat Toomey. He hoped that by becoming a Democrat he could hang on to his seat. In the end he was forced out of office in a Democratic primary by a more liberal opponent.
Even in Arkansas - a state that is by no means liberal - Blanche Lincoln is still fighting off a challenge from a more liberal primary contender. The Paul-Grayson matchup in Kentucky also characterizes a loss for the middle-of-the-road.
So why is this the trend?
An important rule for political success is “keep your base happy” - once they’re less than thrilled with your performance they’ll either stay home in a general election or vote you out in a primary. The base is the source of support that is constantly motivated politically.
Moderate voters don’t pay all that much attention to politics and they don’t vote as regularly - and they certainly don’t vote as often in primaries. They don’t tend to knock on doors or make phone calls. They’re not dependable for political success.
In recent years these facts have become all the more important - when raising small amounts of money online from your base is easier than getting a few large contributions from richer non-political donors, appealing more to the base is critical.
Ultimately this is very characteristic of why the American political landscape is as polarized as it is at the moment.
So as much as it’s true that Washington is unpopular and the incumbency effect seems like a less positive trait than usual, keep this in mind: incumbents and establishment candidates will do fine this year.
So long as they steer clear of the middle.
Thursday, July 16, 2009
Campaigns Heat Up On and Off Capitol Hill
It’s Thursday, July 16, 2009. Here’s what we’re looking at:
Another interest groups runs a positive ad for an entrenched member of Congress. This time Health Care for America is asking constituents to thank Senators Chris Dodd and Harry Reid.
Meanwhile, interest group fights interest group (in fact, company fights company) in a tough public affairs campaign on the Hill. FedEx is attacking UPS for trying to get a federal bailout.
In fact, UPS isn’t trying to get a bailout at all – they’re supporting a bill that would (among other things) pave the way for the International Brotherhood of Teamsters to organize with FedEx like they already do with UPS. As we said on Wednesday last week, there’s no “truth in advertising” law in politics.
Nonetheless, several conservative interest groups – including Americans for Tax Reform, Frontiers for Freedom, and Citizen Outreach – are asking FedEx to stop because the campaign is undermining their own anti-bailout efforts.
You may have seen in recent weeks that SarahPAC – Sarah Palin’s political action committee – is ramping up their fundraising efforts. Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com looks through their recent FEC reports and finds something interesting – the amount of money their raising isn’t significant, but the percent of small donations is much higher than most campaigns.
In Pennsylvania, at-risk incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) is taking a swing at his new primary opponent, Rep. Joe Sestak. From the Specter campaign:
As we mentioned before, Specter is likely to face a tough primary – and that’s despite the fact that he went so far as to switch parties in order to avoid one!
Finally, Democrats picked up a seat in California this week, as Democrat Judy Chu won a special election against Republican Beatty Chu in Los Angeles to replace Obama’s Secretary of Labor, Hilda Solis, in the House of Representatives.
Evidently, voters didn’t feel there were too many Chus to choose from.
Another interest groups runs a positive ad for an entrenched member of Congress. This time Health Care for America is asking constituents to thank Senators Chris Dodd and Harry Reid.
Meanwhile, interest group fights interest group (in fact, company fights company) in a tough public affairs campaign on the Hill. FedEx is attacking UPS for trying to get a federal bailout.
In fact, UPS isn’t trying to get a bailout at all – they’re supporting a bill that would (among other things) pave the way for the International Brotherhood of Teamsters to organize with FedEx like they already do with UPS. As we said on Wednesday last week, there’s no “truth in advertising” law in politics.
Nonetheless, several conservative interest groups – including Americans for Tax Reform, Frontiers for Freedom, and Citizen Outreach – are asking FedEx to stop because the campaign is undermining their own anti-bailout efforts.
You may have seen in recent weeks that SarahPAC – Sarah Palin’s political action committee – is ramping up their fundraising efforts. Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com looks through their recent FEC reports and finds something interesting – the amount of money their raising isn’t significant, but the percent of small donations is much higher than most campaigns.
In Pennsylvania, at-risk incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) is taking a swing at his new primary opponent, Rep. Joe Sestak. From the Specter campaign:
Joe Sestak – AWOL
Dear Friend,
Q. In the 19-member Pennsylvania Congressional Delegation, who’s missed the most votes this year?
A. Congressman Joe Sestak. Sestak has missed 78 votes in Congress so far this year, or nearly 15%, while campaigning for his theoretical Senate run.
Q. Who has the 13th worst attendance record this year in the entire Congress?
A. Joe Sestak. That’s right. Only twelve other Members of Congress have missed more votes than Sestak in 2009, including two members who are in rehab, one recovering from back surgery and several under government investigation.
Q. Is it true that 97% of all members of Congress have a better attendance record than Congressman Sestak.
A. Yes. Sestak ranks that low -- 97% of all members of Congress have a better attendance record than Congressman Sestak.
Q. What’s Senator Specter’s attendance?
A. Specter has been present for 98.7% of all votes in the Senate this year.
As we mentioned before, Specter is likely to face a tough primary – and that’s despite the fact that he went so far as to switch parties in order to avoid one!
Finally, Democrats picked up a seat in California this week, as Democrat Judy Chu won a special election against Republican Beatty Chu in Los Angeles to replace Obama’s Secretary of Labor, Hilda Solis, in the House of Representatives.
Evidently, voters didn’t feel there were too many Chus to choose from.
Friday, June 26, 2009
Michael Jackson: "I Never Get Into Politics"
That’s what the late King of Pop told Ebony magazine back in 1992 - he just wasn’t political. Of course, by the end of his life, it wasn’t quite by choice. In 2004, for example, the Congressional Black Caucus wouldn’t even meet with him when he asked.
As USA Today reported at the time:
No wonder his friend, the Rev. Al Sharpton, said yesterday that many who were lionizing him in death wouldn’t even go near him for the past seven years.
But in his glory days Michael was a more visible figure, greeted by and playing for presidents. He received awards and honors from Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush. He played the Clinton Inauguration alongside Bob Dylan, Elton John, and Stevie Nicks.
But despite a DNC fundraising concert he played in 2002 (where he helped raise $2.5 million for voter registration efforts) Jackson never did get very partisan. Of the two icons that passed away yesterday, it was Farrah Fawcett who actually contributed to a political campaign.
Of course, that didn’t stop the 24-hour “all politics all the time” news networks from covering Michael’s death as the only story last night.
What else are we looking at?
As it turns out, the Mark Sanford press conference on Wednesday had one noticeable mishap. The conservative Fox News identified him as a Democrat in their coverage. We wish we could say it was a normal error, but given their track record in journalism, it’s hard to be sure.
The conservative interest group, Club for Growth, is running a new campaign against Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA). Although they need approval from the FEC first, they’re trying to get their members to demand refunds for their Specter contributions. Specter’s GOP opponent, former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA) is a former president of the Club for Growth.
It’s well known that Washington DC can get way too hot during the summer, and the White House Press room can be the most heated place in the city. So White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs cooled off yesterday by allowing members of the press corps dunk him for charity.
It was all part of the White House luau yesterday, where President Obama had members of Congress over for quite the picnic.
Finally, don’t forget to take part in our survey: Who Are You Looking At in 2012! Tell us who you think will be the Republican nominee to take on Obama. Email your thoughts to Dave@HogensenStrategies.com. It’s fast, easy, and fun - but your predictions are due Monday.
As USA Today reported at the time:
"They had turned down his request to attend its meeting Wednesday, saying they were too busy dealing with legislative issues affecting black Americans."
No wonder his friend, the Rev. Al Sharpton, said yesterday that many who were lionizing him in death wouldn’t even go near him for the past seven years.
But in his glory days Michael was a more visible figure, greeted by and playing for presidents. He received awards and honors from Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush. He played the Clinton Inauguration alongside Bob Dylan, Elton John, and Stevie Nicks.
But despite a DNC fundraising concert he played in 2002 (where he helped raise $2.5 million for voter registration efforts) Jackson never did get very partisan. Of the two icons that passed away yesterday, it was Farrah Fawcett who actually contributed to a political campaign.
Of course, that didn’t stop the 24-hour “all politics all the time” news networks from covering Michael’s death as the only story last night.
What else are we looking at?
As it turns out, the Mark Sanford press conference on Wednesday had one noticeable mishap. The conservative Fox News identified him as a Democrat in their coverage. We wish we could say it was a normal error, but given their track record in journalism, it’s hard to be sure.The conservative interest group, Club for Growth, is running a new campaign against Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA). Although they need approval from the FEC first, they’re trying to get their members to demand refunds for their Specter contributions. Specter’s GOP opponent, former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA) is a former president of the Club for Growth.
It’s well known that Washington DC can get way too hot during the summer, and the White House Press room can be the most heated place in the city. So White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs cooled off yesterday by allowing members of the press corps dunk him for charity.
It was all part of the White House luau yesterday, where President Obama had members of Congress over for quite the picnic.
Finally, don’t forget to take part in our survey: Who Are You Looking At in 2012! Tell us who you think will be the Republican nominee to take on Obama. Email your thoughts to Dave@HogensenStrategies.com. It’s fast, easy, and fun - but your predictions are due Monday.
Friday, June 19, 2009
Democrats and Republicans Getting Mixed News
It’s Friday, June 19, 2009. Here’s what we’re looking at:
Things are looking good for Democrats in Pennsylvania. A new Rasmussen poll finds that both incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) and his possible primary challenger, Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) lead former Rep. Pat Toomey (D-PA) in hypothetical 2010 Senate race match-ups. Specter leads by a 50% - 39% margin, while the less-known Sestak is ahead of Toomey 41% - 35%.
Meanwhile, in Virginia, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds finds himself behind GOP nominee Bob McDonnell by just a point (45% - 44%). This is an improvement for Deeds since just two months ago when McDonnell led 38% - 31%. Now, with 11% of Virginia voters undecided, it’s going to be a very close race.
But Republicans are also gaining some ground. In New Jersey, for example, the Republican Governors Association is putting their money into two new ads attacking the relatively unpopular incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine (D-NJ). We’ll be sure to bring you those ads as soon as they’re released.
Luckily for Corzine, he has much more money than opponent Chris Christie, and can saturate the expensive New York City and Philadelphia media markets. Overall, that will make for a very costly and very negative race. According to Patrick Murray of the Monmouth University Polling Institute “New Jersey has a history of nasty races [and] this could potentially go down as the nastiest.”
And the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) reported today an intake of $4.5 million for the month of May. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) - conversely - raised a meager $3.45 million. Of course, about $1 million raised by the NRSC was a simple transfer of resources from the Republican National Committee fund. Nevertheless, the DSCC is still $4.17 million in debt, while the NRSC is now debt-free.
Finally, you’ve probably heard about Sen. Barbra Boxer’s (D-CA) frustration with General Michael Walsh calling her “ma’am” instead of “Senator” - which the GOP is now jumping all over - but believe us, that is nothing compared to this:
One last thing: if you’re in the Milwaukee area on Sunday, join us at noon at South Shore Park for HSG’s second annual summer party! HSG is the parent company for WAYLA and we’d love to see you there.
Things are looking good for Democrats in Pennsylvania. A new Rasmussen poll finds that both incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) and his possible primary challenger, Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) lead former Rep. Pat Toomey (D-PA) in hypothetical 2010 Senate race match-ups. Specter leads by a 50% - 39% margin, while the less-known Sestak is ahead of Toomey 41% - 35%.
Meanwhile, in Virginia, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds finds himself behind GOP nominee Bob McDonnell by just a point (45% - 44%). This is an improvement for Deeds since just two months ago when McDonnell led 38% - 31%. Now, with 11% of Virginia voters undecided, it’s going to be a very close race.
But Republicans are also gaining some ground. In New Jersey, for example, the Republican Governors Association is putting their money into two new ads attacking the relatively unpopular incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine (D-NJ). We’ll be sure to bring you those ads as soon as they’re released.
Luckily for Corzine, he has much more money than opponent Chris Christie, and can saturate the expensive New York City and Philadelphia media markets. Overall, that will make for a very costly and very negative race. According to Patrick Murray of the Monmouth University Polling Institute “New Jersey has a history of nasty races [and] this could potentially go down as the nastiest.”
And the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) reported today an intake of $4.5 million for the month of May. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) - conversely - raised a meager $3.45 million. Of course, about $1 million raised by the NRSC was a simple transfer of resources from the Republican National Committee fund. Nevertheless, the DSCC is still $4.17 million in debt, while the NRSC is now debt-free.
Finally, you’ve probably heard about Sen. Barbra Boxer’s (D-CA) frustration with General Michael Walsh calling her “ma’am” instead of “Senator” - which the GOP is now jumping all over - but believe us, that is nothing compared to this:
Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy
One last thing: if you’re in the Milwaukee area on Sunday, join us at noon at South Shore Park for HSG’s second annual summer party! HSG is the parent company for WAYLA and we’d love to see you there.
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
Campaign Updates (6/16/09)
WAYLA has decided to start bringing you periodic updates of campaigns and elections. Today we’ll look at some Senate race developments here in the U.S. as well as the presidential election in Iran.
Pennsylvania
Republican Senate candidate Pat Toomey has had an impressive few weeks with money, as it turns out, according to his campaign announcements on Monday. Not only has he brought on state GOP fundraisers Amy Petraglia and Carey Dunn to his campaign, but also his opponent’s former Finance Director, Louisa Boyd. She left Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) after he switched parties back in April.
Additionally, Toomey has now raised $1 million. While it’s still less than Specter (who has $6.7 million cash-on-hand) it’s still an impressive milestone. It’s also important to mention that Specter may have to take on Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) - who currently has $3.3 million cash-on-hand in his federal account) in a primary. Primaries cost money too, and this one might bring down Specter’s (or Sestak’s) budget while Toomey can continue to raise money.
Florida
Conservative Senator Jim DeMint (R-SC) today announced his endorsement of Marc Rubio for the 2010 Florida Senate race. DeMint chose not to endorse the NRSC’s pick - Gov. Charlie Crist - because the popular governor is too moderate.
Yet despite the backing of conservative activists and DeMint, Rubio is still trailing Crist in money and the polls. A recent Quinnipiac poll, for example, finds Crist ahead with primary voters about 54% - 23%.
On the other side of the spectrum, Rep. Ron Klein (D-FL) made it official that he will not pursue the Senate seat, and joined fellow south-Florida Rep. Debbie Wasserman Shultz (D-FL) in endorsing Miami’s Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL). Meanwhile, Rep. Corrine Brown (D-FL) is talking about running for that seat herself.
Arkansas
Another Republican has joined the race to take Sen. Blanche Lincoln's (D-AR) seat. Tom Cox, a conservative activist who ran his state’s Tea Party protests, announced his candidacy on Monday. He will join state Senator Kim Hendren and businessman Curtis Coleman in a primary.
One thing that could hurt his candidacy: last year federal authorities raided his boating business and arrested 15 illegal immigrants. He told the Associated Press he had "every reason to believe [the workers] were legal and they were wonderful employees." Explaining that to GOP Primary voters in Arkansas might be difficult.
Iran
Continuing to follow the Iranian presidential election closely, we did a post yesterday in which we found no conclusive evidence that the election was either rigged or clean. Although it felt like a tough point to make with how the Iranian opposition supporters are reacting (and now how some GOP politicians are reacting) the bloggers at FiveThirtyEight.com apparently agree with us - for the most part.
On Saturday, Nate Silver argued that the statistical analysis trying to prove a rigged election is not very compelling. Then on Sunday he posted the results of the election by province and used his own analysis to argue again that the results are ambiguous to charges of rigging. Finally, on Monday he suggested that voter intimidation may have been a bigger factor in Ahmadinejad’s victory than fraudulent ballot counting. Of course, in that Monday post he was largely refuting the very poll we referred to in our own post.
Meanwhile, Renard Sexton argued that while the analysis of election-rigging is inconclusive, he points out some fishy numbers coming out of Tehran. Not only is Ahmadinejad’s vote percentage outside of a statistical trend, but he defeated reformist Medhi Karroubi (note: NOT the main challenger, Mir Hossein Mousavi) by some unlikely margins. Today, Sexton commented on the announced recount by the Guardian Council and the proposed re-vote, and what course of action would be best depending on what dirty election tricks actually took place.
For all these stories and more, stay tuned.
Pennsylvania
Republican Senate candidate Pat Toomey has had an impressive few weeks with money, as it turns out, according to his campaign announcements on Monday. Not only has he brought on state GOP fundraisers Amy Petraglia and Carey Dunn to his campaign, but also his opponent’s former Finance Director, Louisa Boyd. She left Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) after he switched parties back in April.
Additionally, Toomey has now raised $1 million. While it’s still less than Specter (who has $6.7 million cash-on-hand) it’s still an impressive milestone. It’s also important to mention that Specter may have to take on Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) - who currently has $3.3 million cash-on-hand in his federal account) in a primary. Primaries cost money too, and this one might bring down Specter’s (or Sestak’s) budget while Toomey can continue to raise money.
Florida
Conservative Senator Jim DeMint (R-SC) today announced his endorsement of Marc Rubio for the 2010 Florida Senate race. DeMint chose not to endorse the NRSC’s pick - Gov. Charlie Crist - because the popular governor is too moderate.
Yet despite the backing of conservative activists and DeMint, Rubio is still trailing Crist in money and the polls. A recent Quinnipiac poll, for example, finds Crist ahead with primary voters about 54% - 23%.
On the other side of the spectrum, Rep. Ron Klein (D-FL) made it official that he will not pursue the Senate seat, and joined fellow south-Florida Rep. Debbie Wasserman Shultz (D-FL) in endorsing Miami’s Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL). Meanwhile, Rep. Corrine Brown (D-FL) is talking about running for that seat herself.
Arkansas
Another Republican has joined the race to take Sen. Blanche Lincoln's (D-AR) seat. Tom Cox, a conservative activist who ran his state’s Tea Party protests, announced his candidacy on Monday. He will join state Senator Kim Hendren and businessman Curtis Coleman in a primary.
One thing that could hurt his candidacy: last year federal authorities raided his boating business and arrested 15 illegal immigrants. He told the Associated Press he had "every reason to believe [the workers] were legal and they were wonderful employees." Explaining that to GOP Primary voters in Arkansas might be difficult.
Iran
Continuing to follow the Iranian presidential election closely, we did a post yesterday in which we found no conclusive evidence that the election was either rigged or clean. Although it felt like a tough point to make with how the Iranian opposition supporters are reacting (and now how some GOP politicians are reacting) the bloggers at FiveThirtyEight.com apparently agree with us - for the most part.
On Saturday, Nate Silver argued that the statistical analysis trying to prove a rigged election is not very compelling. Then on Sunday he posted the results of the election by province and used his own analysis to argue again that the results are ambiguous to charges of rigging. Finally, on Monday he suggested that voter intimidation may have been a bigger factor in Ahmadinejad’s victory than fraudulent ballot counting. Of course, in that Monday post he was largely refuting the very poll we referred to in our own post.
Meanwhile, Renard Sexton argued that while the analysis of election-rigging is inconclusive, he points out some fishy numbers coming out of Tehran. Not only is Ahmadinejad’s vote percentage outside of a statistical trend, but he defeated reformist Medhi Karroubi (note: NOT the main challenger, Mir Hossein Mousavi) by some unlikely margins. Today, Sexton commented on the announced recount by the Guardian Council and the proposed re-vote, and what course of action would be best depending on what dirty election tricks actually took place.
For all these stories and more, stay tuned.
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Will Specter Survive While Opposing EFCA?
The Number One piece of progressive legislation that Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) has refused to support since switching parties is the Employee Free Choice Act. The bill - which would make it easier for workers to organize for collective bargaining - has been mentioned several times by Specter since he became a Democrat.
Before the party-switch, he told Republican constituents "the 41st Republican, whose name is Arlen Specter, is vital to stopping…passage of card check".
In his campaign statement following the switch, he told voters
Of course, during the 110th Congress, Specter supported EFCA as a co-sponsor and said he was "delighted" to let it get past the cloture vote. Since then he changed his stance - probably to satisfy Republican donors for his upcoming battle with former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA) - and kept his position consistent through the party-switch so as not to appear to be a flip-flopper. But this campaign pragmatism has put him in a bit of a predicament.
As we mentioned before, the most significant reason that Specter changed parties was to avoid a Republican Primary with Toomey. But without supporting EFCA, Specter will be at a serious disadvantage in a possible Democratic Primary.
State Rep. Bill Kortz (D-Dravosburg) and Joseph Torsella (a former aide to Gov. Ed Rendell) are already running against Specter in the Primary, and many expect Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) to jump in as well.
The unions may be inclined to support any of these challengers so long as Specter opposes EFCA - a major problem for him in a Democratic Primary. As some of the most efficient progressive organizing associations, labor unions are particularly important for Democrats to win the support of going into an election.
And in Pennsylvania they’re especially important. With more than 800,000 union members statewide - and the home to the very politically active United Steelworkers - the Keystone State will be a tough place for any Democrat that opposes such a key labor law while going into a Primary.
So far the unions have made the importance of this bill clear. Last month, more than 300 union members marched in Pittsburg in an effort to reverse Specter’s position.
Yet Specter claims his newfound concerns with EFCA are not entirely about an anti-labor principle. Earlier this month he said “I’m opposed to giving up the secret ballot or mandatory arbitration as they are set forth in the bill, but I do believe that labor law reform is past overdue”. So a compromise to the Card Check Clause may be enough to bring him on board.
Sen. Diane Feinstein has such a compromise.
From the National Journal:
It may not be what the unions had in mind, but many union organizers say the proposal sounds alright.
Specter, meanwhile, has suggested the Arbitration Clause could be amended to make "last best offer" arbitration (or Baseball Arbitration) into law. And Bill Samuel of the AFL-CIO says "we're open to that."
As far as passing the legislation goes, Specter may not be the only one to change positions with the compromise. It could satisfy the concerns of other moderate senators such as Mark Pryor (D-AR), Jim Webb (D-VA), Ben Nelson (D-NE), Mark Udall (D-CO), Susan Collins (R-ME) and Olympia Snowe (R-ME).
Ultimately, the unions may be disappointed with the concessions, but pleased that such reform would actually pass.
Specter will have his own reasons to support such a compromise bill. His future may depend on it.
Before the party-switch, he told Republican constituents "the 41st Republican, whose name is Arlen Specter, is vital to stopping…passage of card check".
In his campaign statement following the switch, he told voters
"My change in party affiliation does not mean that I will be a party-line voter any more for the Democrats that I have been for the Republicans. Unlike Senator Jeffords’ switch which changed party control, I will not be an automatic 60th vote for cloture. For example, my position on Employees Free Choice (Card Check) will not change."
Of course, during the 110th Congress, Specter supported EFCA as a co-sponsor and said he was "delighted" to let it get past the cloture vote. Since then he changed his stance - probably to satisfy Republican donors for his upcoming battle with former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA) - and kept his position consistent through the party-switch so as not to appear to be a flip-flopper. But this campaign pragmatism has put him in a bit of a predicament.As we mentioned before, the most significant reason that Specter changed parties was to avoid a Republican Primary with Toomey. But without supporting EFCA, Specter will be at a serious disadvantage in a possible Democratic Primary.
State Rep. Bill Kortz (D-Dravosburg) and Joseph Torsella (a former aide to Gov. Ed Rendell) are already running against Specter in the Primary, and many expect Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) to jump in as well.
The unions may be inclined to support any of these challengers so long as Specter opposes EFCA - a major problem for him in a Democratic Primary. As some of the most efficient progressive organizing associations, labor unions are particularly important for Democrats to win the support of going into an election.And in Pennsylvania they’re especially important. With more than 800,000 union members statewide - and the home to the very politically active United Steelworkers - the Keystone State will be a tough place for any Democrat that opposes such a key labor law while going into a Primary.
So far the unions have made the importance of this bill clear. Last month, more than 300 union members marched in Pittsburg in an effort to reverse Specter’s position.
Yet Specter claims his newfound concerns with EFCA are not entirely about an anti-labor principle. Earlier this month he said “I’m opposed to giving up the secret ballot or mandatory arbitration as they are set forth in the bill, but I do believe that labor law reform is past overdue”. So a compromise to the Card Check Clause may be enough to bring him on board.
Sen. Diane Feinstein has such a compromise.
From the National Journal:
[Diane Feinstein's] proposal would replace the card-check provision, which would allow workers to unionize if a majority signed authorization cards and strip a company's ability to demand a secret ballot election. "It's a secret ballot that would be mailed in ... just like an absentee ballot. The individual could take it home and mail it in," Feinstein said. If a majority mailed the ballots to the National Labor Relations Board, the NLRB would recognize the union.
It may not be what the unions had in mind, but many union organizers say the proposal sounds alright.
Specter, meanwhile, has suggested the Arbitration Clause could be amended to make "last best offer" arbitration (or Baseball Arbitration) into law. And Bill Samuel of the AFL-CIO says "we're open to that."
As far as passing the legislation goes, Specter may not be the only one to change positions with the compromise. It could satisfy the concerns of other moderate senators such as Mark Pryor (D-AR), Jim Webb (D-VA), Ben Nelson (D-NE), Mark Udall (D-CO), Susan Collins (R-ME) and Olympia Snowe (R-ME).
Ultimately, the unions may be disappointed with the concessions, but pleased that such reform would actually pass.
Specter will have his own reasons to support such a compromise bill. His future may depend on it.
Tuesday, May 5, 2009
Getting Inside the Heads of the GOP
Since the November elections we have been looking at the discord and confusion within the Republican Party. With the 2010 elections coming to the forefronts of our minds, the GOP doesn’t seem to have made much ground.
So what are they thinking?
Following his departure from the GOP last week, Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) made his points about the direction of his old party.
Immediately following him was an interesting conversation between host David Gregory, MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough, and former RNC Chair Ed Gillespie. It was a good chance to hear the thoughts from within the Republican Party.
And an online follow-up.
Obviously there is a lot of confusion, but despite a scrambling opposition, Democrats should be worried about one particular message the GOP has discovered - "checks and balances".
It seems that some new push-poll data conducted by Republican firm Public Opinion Strategies has found it to be an effective argument for GOP campaigns. “Our latest national survey provides strong evidence that voters are concerned that they have given too much power to one political party and that Republicans can provide a check and balance,” said pollster Glen Bolger.
They may not have it all figured out, but the GOP is coming closer to a cohesive message for the 2010 elections. Democrats should make a note of it.
So what are they thinking?
Following his departure from the GOP last week, Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) made his points about the direction of his old party.
Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy
Immediately following him was an interesting conversation between host David Gregory, MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough, and former RNC Chair Ed Gillespie. It was a good chance to hear the thoughts from within the Republican Party.
Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy
And an online follow-up.
Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy
Obviously there is a lot of confusion, but despite a scrambling opposition, Democrats should be worried about one particular message the GOP has discovered - "checks and balances".
It seems that some new push-poll data conducted by Republican firm Public Opinion Strategies has found it to be an effective argument for GOP campaigns. “Our latest national survey provides strong evidence that voters are concerned that they have given too much power to one political party and that Republicans can provide a check and balance,” said pollster Glen Bolger.
They may not have it all figured out, but the GOP is coming closer to a cohesive message for the 2010 elections. Democrats should make a note of it.
Friday, May 1, 2009
Souter, Specter, and College Football
It’s Friday, May 01, 2009. Here's what we're looking at:
Justice David Souter of the U.S. Supreme Court will retire, according to numerous government officials (including President Obama). Who will the new president pick to replace Souter? Probably another minority or female legal expert. The New York Times provides a slew of possibilities as to who it might be.
No matter who Obama picks to replace Souter, he or she will still have to be confirmed by the Senate. The process will start in the Senate Judiciary Committee - where, because of Sen. Arlen Specter’s recent party switch, confirming a liberal Justice may be more difficult now.
Specter’s decision has been supported by most Democrats in Washington DC, but the Democratic activists in Pennsylvania are not so sure. One group is demanding that the moderate Senator go through a primary.
Finally, the BCS System vs. Playoffs issue is heating up in Congress. One of the most passionate House members on this issue is Rep. Joe Barton (R-TX) who says that the BCS System is “like communism, you can't fix it."
Justice David Souter of the U.S. Supreme Court will retire, according to numerous government officials (including President Obama). Who will the new president pick to replace Souter? Probably another minority or female legal expert. The New York Times provides a slew of possibilities as to who it might be.
No matter who Obama picks to replace Souter, he or she will still have to be confirmed by the Senate. The process will start in the Senate Judiciary Committee - where, because of Sen. Arlen Specter’s recent party switch, confirming a liberal Justice may be more difficult now.
Specter’s decision has been supported by most Democrats in Washington DC, but the Democratic activists in Pennsylvania are not so sure. One group is demanding that the moderate Senator go through a primary.
Finally, the BCS System vs. Playoffs issue is heating up in Congress. One of the most passionate House members on this issue is Rep. Joe Barton (R-TX) who says that the BCS System is “like communism, you can't fix it."
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Why Did Specter Become a Democrat?
The biggest news story today in the political scene is the party-switch by Senator Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania. As one of the last moderate Republicans in the Senate, Specter was facing a tough primary from former GOP Congressman Pat Toomey.
From his statement today:
But it goes on…
(The emphasis is our own)
Was Specter afraid of losing his primary? Prominent Republican leaders seem to think so.
From a statement by Chairman of the NRSC, Sen. John Cornyn:
And RNC Chairman Michael Steele seemed to agree:
Was this really why Specter changed parties?
Until today, Specter had consistently said it was important for him to remain a Republican. In March, he was quoted by The Hill as saying "I think each of the 41 Republican senators, in a sense — and I don’t want to overstate this — is a national asset because if one was gone, you’d only have 40, the Democrats would have 60, and they would control all of the mechanisms of government."
He was also quoted in Pennsylvania Avenue as saying "And because if we lose my seat they have 60 Democrats, they will pass card check, you will have the Obama tax increases, they will carry out his big spending plans. So the 41st Republican, whose name is Arlen Specter is vital to stopping tax increases, passage of card check, and the Obama big spending plans."
So today’s decision certainly seems peculiar.
A Rasmussen poll from Friday showed Toomey to be leading with a majority of voters.
From Rasmussen’s website:
Specter had already released an ad against Toomey in anticipation for their primary battle, and the two had been telling voters for a while that the other was unelectable.
Recently we commented on how the GOP was purging their more moderate members. A story from Politico on Sunday seems to confirm this phenomenon.
Specter is a moderate Senator who probably was more in line with the Democrats than the Republicans. But it would probably be naïve to say this move was not because of the Toomey challenge.
As a party, the GOP is moving further to the right. This means that some centrist Republicans are leaving the party. In fact, as few as 21% of Americans still consider themselves Republicans according to recent polls. Nate Silver describes this as a Republican Death Spiral.
Specter was on shaky ground with Republicans in Pennsylvania, but he will be a voice for moderate (former) Republicans, Democrats, and independents now that he has switched parties. Now he has a better chance of returning to Washington in 2011.
From his statement today:
Since my election in 1980, as part of the Reagan Big Tent, the Republican Party has moved far to the right. Last year, more than 200,000 Republicans in Pennsylvania changed their registration to become Democrats. I now find my political philosophy more in line with Democrats than Republicans.
But it goes on…
When I supported the stimulus package, I knew that it would not be popular with the Republican Party. But, I saw the stimulus as necessary to lessen the risk of a far more serious recession than we are now experiencing.
Since then, I have traveled the State, talked to Republican leaders and office-holders and my supporters and I have carefully examined public opinion. It has become clear to me that the stimulus vote caused a schism which makes our differences irreconcilable. On this state of the record, I am unwilling to have my twenty-nine year Senate record judged by the Pennsylvania Republican primary electorate. I have not represented the Republican Party. I have represented the people of Pennsylvania.
(The emphasis is our own)
Was Specter afraid of losing his primary? Prominent Republican leaders seem to think so.
From a statement by Chairman of the NRSC, Sen. John Cornyn:
"Senator Specter’s decision today represents the height of political self-preservation. While this presents a short-term disappointment, voters next year will have a clear choice to cast their ballots for a potentially unbridled Democrat super-majority versus the system of checks-and-balances that Americans deserve."
And RNC Chairman Michael Steele seemed to agree:
Let’s be honest-Senator Specter didn’t leave the GOP based on principles of any kind. He left to further his personal political interests because he knew that he was going to lose a Republican primary due to his left-wing voting record.
Republicans look forward to beating Sen. Specter in 2010, assuming the Democrats don’t do it first.
Was this really why Specter changed parties?
Until today, Specter had consistently said it was important for him to remain a Republican. In March, he was quoted by The Hill as saying "I think each of the 41 Republican senators, in a sense — and I don’t want to overstate this — is a national asset because if one was gone, you’d only have 40, the Democrats would have 60, and they would control all of the mechanisms of government."
He was also quoted in Pennsylvania Avenue as saying "And because if we lose my seat they have 60 Democrats, they will pass card check, you will have the Obama tax increases, they will carry out his big spending plans. So the 41st Republican, whose name is Arlen Specter is vital to stopping tax increases, passage of card check, and the Obama big spending plans."
So today’s decision certainly seems peculiar.
A Rasmussen poll from Friday showed Toomey to be leading with a majority of voters.
From Rasmussen’s website:
Incumbent Senator Arlen Specter trails former Congressman Pat Toomey by 21 points in an early look at Pennsylvania’s 2010 Republican Primary. Fifty-one percent (51%) of Republican voters statewide say they’d vote for Toomey while just 30% would support Specter.
Specter is viewed favorably by 42% of Pennsylvania Republicans and unfavorably by 55%, according to a new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state. Those are stunningly poor numbers for a long-term incumbent senator. Specter was first elected to the Senate in 1980.
Toomey, who served in the House from 1999 to 2005, earns positive reviews from 66% and negative comments from just 19%.
Specter had already released an ad against Toomey in anticipation for their primary battle, and the two had been telling voters for a while that the other was unelectable.
Recently we commented on how the GOP was purging their more moderate members. A story from Politico on Sunday seems to confirm this phenomenon.
Specter is a moderate Senator who probably was more in line with the Democrats than the Republicans. But it would probably be naïve to say this move was not because of the Toomey challenge.
As a party, the GOP is moving further to the right. This means that some centrist Republicans are leaving the party. In fact, as few as 21% of Americans still consider themselves Republicans according to recent polls. Nate Silver describes this as a Republican Death Spiral.
Specter was on shaky ground with Republicans in Pennsylvania, but he will be a voice for moderate (former) Republicans, Democrats, and independents now that he has switched parties. Now he has a better chance of returning to Washington in 2011.
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
Purging the Republican Party
Tomorrow John McCain will officially have an opponent for 2010 - but it won’t be a Democrat.
Chris Simcox, founder of the Minuteman Civil Defense Corps, will be taking on the former GOP Presidential candidate in the Republican Primary. Politico’s Ben Smith includes a sample of tomorrow’s press release:
But McCain is not the only prominent Republican to have such opposition from within the party. Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA) has to worry about a Primary rematch with the more conservative Pat Toomey, Gov. Rick Perry (R-TX) has a Primary battle with Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison for his re-election, and former House Minority Whip Roy Blunt is not considered a shoe-in for the Missouri GOP’s Senate nomination.
Blunt had a disappointing first-quarter, raising about $542,000. As a result, former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman is expected to jump in to the race soon. She might be the last person Blunt wants to face.
From Politico:
The GOP has had to re-examine itself in recent years since the Democrats retook Congress in 2006. To many Republican activists, the GOP lost the confidence of the people for increasing the size of government, increasing the national debt, and increasing the influence of lobbyists. Before they return to power, these conservative, populist activists will want to purge their party of the politicians who embodied that Washington-insider culture.
Could it backfire on them?
Democrats seem to think the split in the GOP could be beneficial come 2010. In Pennsylvania, both Specter and Toomey are warning Republicans that their opponent would lose a General Election.
Specter says Toomey “is a surefire loser in November,” while Toomey insists that "Voters are just fed up with Sen. Specter”.
But Pennsylvania Democratic Party Chairman T.J. Rooney thinks that the GOP battle will be what helps the Democrats. "Now is a perfect time for people like myself to shut up and sit back and watch the show," he says.
Meanwhile in Texas, far-right Governor Perry is skating on thin ice for his recent comments about the right to secede from the union, and Democrats are hoping to capitalize in a big way.
Also from Politico:
Tom Schieffer may be just that candidate. He’s a former Texas Congressman who is business-friendly and served as an ambassador during the Bush Administration. While he might not be a darling of the Democratic base, he would certainly be acceptable in the eyes of moderate Texans if Perry should win the Primary.
It makes sense for the populists in the GOP to try to purge themselves of elected-officials that represent the beltway, but if they try replace them with figures further to the right they might be in for a big surprise - most Americans just aren’t as conservative as they are.
Chris Simcox, founder of the Minuteman Civil Defense Corps, will be taking on the former GOP Presidential candidate in the Republican Primary. Politico’s Ben Smith includes a sample of tomorrow’s press release:"John McCain has failed miserably in his duty to secure this nation's borders and protect the people of Arizona from the escalating violence and lawlessness," Simcox said. "He has fought real efforts over the years at every turn, opting to hold our nation's border security hostage to his amnesty schemes. Coupled with his votes for reckless bailout spending and big government solutions to our nation's problems, John McCain is out of touch with everyday Arizonans. Enough is enough."
But McCain is not the only prominent Republican to have such opposition from within the party. Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA) has to worry about a Primary rematch with the more conservative Pat Toomey, Gov. Rick Perry (R-TX) has a Primary battle with Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison for his re-election, and former House Minority Whip Roy Blunt is not considered a shoe-in for the Missouri GOP’s Senate nomination.
Blunt had a disappointing first-quarter, raising about $542,000. As a result, former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman is expected to jump in to the race soon. She might be the last person Blunt wants to face.
From Politico:
"I like Roy Blunt, but the Republican Party keeps going back to the same old names, and we’ve lost a lot of races doing that," said Lincoln County GOP Chairwoman Carol Wessel. "You got to have that money to run, and I just think people are just being cautious right now with their money."
"Roy Blunt has been a very big part of the mess we’re in. His new wife is a lobbyist. His children are lobbyists. We need a fresh face up there," said Norm Harty, a longtime Republican activist and donor from southeast Missouri. "He’s going to have blood dripping from him; he’s going to be so beaten up."
…Steelman ran unsuccessfully for the Republican nomination for governor in 2008…[but she] managed to cultivate a populist following that she seems poised to tap into once again. Thus far, she has been running a shadow campaign, marked by two relatively quiet trips to Washington over the past two months and small, private meetings with prospective donors and organizers. More recently, Steelman has ramped up her visibility by speaking at a central Missouri tea party on Tax Day and unveiling a revamped political website.
The GOP has had to re-examine itself in recent years since the Democrats retook Congress in 2006. To many Republican activists, the GOP lost the confidence of the people for increasing the size of government, increasing the national debt, and increasing the influence of lobbyists. Before they return to power, these conservative, populist activists will want to purge their party of the politicians who embodied that Washington-insider culture.
Could it backfire on them?
Democrats seem to think the split in the GOP could be beneficial come 2010. In Pennsylvania, both Specter and Toomey are warning Republicans that their opponent would lose a General Election.
Specter says Toomey “is a surefire loser in November,” while Toomey insists that "Voters are just fed up with Sen. Specter”.
But Pennsylvania Democratic Party Chairman T.J. Rooney thinks that the GOP battle will be what helps the Democrats. "Now is a perfect time for people like myself to shut up and sit back and watch the show," he says.
Meanwhile in Texas, far-right Governor Perry is skating on thin ice for his recent comments about the right to secede from the union, and Democrats are hoping to capitalize in a big way.
Also from Politico:
Perry, who won with less than 40 percent in a four-way general election field in 2006, is not popular with the general voting public in Texas. He is, however, the darling of the far-right wing that dominates the Republican primary electorate. Chances are that he may defeat Hutchison in a mean, ugly, down-and-dirty primary next March. If he does, his victory could rip apart the Republican Party and open the door for a moderate Democratic to achieve a clean win in November.
Tom Schieffer may be just that candidate. He’s a former Texas Congressman who is business-friendly and served as an ambassador during the Bush Administration. While he might not be a darling of the Democratic base, he would certainly be acceptable in the eyes of moderate Texans if Perry should win the Primary.
It makes sense for the populists in the GOP to try to purge themselves of elected-officials that represent the beltway, but if they try replace them with figures further to the right they might be in for a big surprise - most Americans just aren’t as conservative as they are.
Thursday, April 2, 2009
Where the 2008 and 2010 Elections Overlap
It’s Thursday, April 2, 2009. Here’s what we’re looking at:
After his defeat in court on Tuesday, former Senator Norm Coleman (R-MN) appears to be finished, despite his motion for appeal. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) has taken up the issue of seating Democrat Al Franken once again.
In New York’s 20th Congressional District, Democrat Scott Murphy leads Republican Jim Tedisco by only 25 votes. With the race to be decided by absentee ballots, Michael Barone of the Thomas Jefferson Street blog analyzes what we can expect.
Meanwhile, the 2010 elections have just begun. Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA) - who is currently the most vulnerable incumbent according to FiveThirtyEight.com - has already released this ad criticizing his likely primary opponent, former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA).
And with the troubles in the financial industry, the Chairman of the Senate Banking Committee - Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) - is at risk of losing his seat. A new Quinnipiac poll shows him 16 points behind former Rep. Rob Simmons (R-CT).
After his defeat in court on Tuesday, former Senator Norm Coleman (R-MN) appears to be finished, despite his motion for appeal. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) has taken up the issue of seating Democrat Al Franken once again.
In New York’s 20th Congressional District, Democrat Scott Murphy leads Republican Jim Tedisco by only 25 votes. With the race to be decided by absentee ballots, Michael Barone of the Thomas Jefferson Street blog analyzes what we can expect.
Meanwhile, the 2010 elections have just begun. Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA) - who is currently the most vulnerable incumbent according to FiveThirtyEight.com - has already released this ad criticizing his likely primary opponent, former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA).
And with the troubles in the financial industry, the Chairman of the Senate Banking Committee - Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) - is at risk of losing his seat. A new Quinnipiac poll shows him 16 points behind former Rep. Rob Simmons (R-CT).
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