Achieving Marriage Equality, One Campaign at a Time

Summary: A New York State Senate race characterizes the national debate over gay marriage.

For years now, the debate over gay marriage has been a defining issue of the modern civil rights push. For years liberals and moderates pushed back against a GOP agenda that sought to ban the unorthodox arrangement in the U.S. Constitution, as well as in several state constitutions.

Today, liberals are fighting back, and over 40% of Americans believe in total marriage equality. A majority of Americans now believe that, at the very least, gays and lesbians should have the right to form a civil union.

Yet to date, only one referendum banning gay marriage has failed to pass. It happened in Arizona in 2006, where a similar ballot measure was passed in 2008.

After seeing what happened in these states - though especially California and Maine - in recent years, gay rights activists have realized the importance of political campaigns.

Yet referendum campaigns should not be the only area of focus. Recently, full marriage equality was achieved in Vermont and New Hampshire when their State Legislatures passed bills allowing gay marriages.

In New York, however, the dream fell short.

Although the New York State Assembly passed two gay marriage bills with bipartisan approval, the legislation fell 7 votes short in the State Senate. Democrats controlled the chamber, but many of them voted with the anti-marriage Republicans in the upper house.

Now some of those Democrats are feeling the heat.

From the New York Times:

“…gay rights groups, which have become major financial players in state politics, wanted to know which senators they should back in the future and which ones to target for defeat.

Alan Van Capelle, executive director of the Empire State Pride Agenda, New York’s largest gay rights group, hinted that senators who voted against the bill on Wednesday could face repercussions. And Christine C. Quinn, the New York City Council Speaker echoed that sentiment, saying, ‘Anybody who thinks that by casting a no vote they’re putting this issue to bed, they’re making a massive miscalculation.’”

Enter State Senate District 10, a sprawling district in south Queens. Here the residents of the Jamaica, Springfield Gardens, and Brookville neighborhoods are represented by State Senator Shirley Huntley - one of the eight Democrats who opposed the marriage equality bill.

To be sure, Queens is not the place a politician should oppose gay marriage. The borough elected two openly gay City Council members last year and it’s a hot bed of gay rights advocacy in New York. Needless to say, gay rights activists are calling for Huntley’s defeat.

And she may have a formidable opponent. Lynn Nunes, a local politician, has been exploring a challenge to Huntley following her vote on gay marriage. Although he is not gay himself, Nunes is a strong supporter of marriage equality.

Additionally, Nunes is a strong candidate. Last year he was just barely edged out of a City Council race - by literally 4 votes - against a popular two-term incumbent. The race gave him the opportunity to build political contacts and a base of support for future campaigns - such as State Senate.

What Nunes needs now is support from the gay rights community.

The late U.S. House Speaker Tip O’Neil will be remembered for many things, but for campaign people like us he will be remembered most for some of the most important words in our profession…

“All politics is local.”

In order to achieve marriage equality across America, pro-marriage advocates need to build momentum on a state-by-state basis. In New York, gay marriage is only a few votes shy of reality in the State Senate. Gay rights activists need to focus on the handful of State Senate races that will change the state’s laws.

What better place to start the march towards full equality than on the streets of south Queens?

Predictions for Tomorrow’s Elections

Tomorrow is Election Day for residents in New Jersey, Virginia, Maine, New York City, and New York’s 23rd Congressional District. Last week we analyzed the gubernatorial race in Virginia and found Republican Bob McDonnell to be the likely winner.

Today we take a look at the big races in the other four elections.


New Jersey

Big Race: Governor

Candidates: Jon Corzine (D), Chris Christie (R), Chris Daggett (I)

Analysis: While Corzine has not been a popular incumbent throughout the race, he has been gaining in the polls over the past month or two. Nate Silver suggests the race is largely up in the air at this point, with Christie being a 4:3 favorite. The race has been very negative, and no matter who the undecided voters choose, they’re going to have to select a politician that they’ve heard a lot of bad things about. Largely, this race could come down to which campaign has the best organization for tomorrow - and in New Jersey, it’s typically the Democrat.

Predictions: I would put my money on Corzine, but it is certainly possible that Christie will pull an upset victory. Either way, expect Daggett to do fairly well - perhaps even better than the polls up to this point suggest he will do.


Maine

Big Race: Question 1

Options: A “Yes” vote is to overturn the legalization of gay marriage in Maine, a “No” vote supports gay marriage.

Analysis: This question was thrown on the voters at the last minute, and for a referendum concerning an issue as progressive as gay marriage, it should theoretically be a bad sign for “No on 1” supporters. That being said, “No on 1” has raised significantly more money - including from in-state contributors - and past analysis suggests the electorate will vote this question down. Silver predicts there is an 80% chance that the “No” vote will win. However, a recent Public Policy Polling survey found that Maine voters supported Question 1 at a 51% - 47% margin.

Predictions: If any state can vote this down, it’s a New England state - however, the polls don’t look good. I think it will come down to the youth vote. Young voters were far more opposed to the referendum than older voters, and older voters typically make it to the polls more often. Yet gay marriage is one issue that young voters are extremely passionate about, and they might rally a “No” vote better than conservatives can rally a “Yes” vote tomorrow. We’ll have to wait and see.


New York City

Big Race: Mayor

Candidates: Michael Bloomberg (R,I), Bill Thompson (D)

Analysis: Unfortunately, this race has been a lot less exciting than we hoped. While NYC is an incredibly Democratic city, voters tend to approve of Bloomberg’s pragmatic style of governance. Silver sees Thompson as a 35:1 underdog, with only the Bronx as a winnable borough for him. However, voters in NYC are still upset over Bloomberg’s moves last year to extend term limits and still others are frustrated with his lack of attention towards low income residents. Additionally, Bloomberg’s campaign has been using robo-calls so frequently it’s getting on everyone’s nerves. Nonetheless, voters will probably look past these issues, and Bloomberg’s wealth has made him a very difficult candidate to beat in logistical terms.

Predictions: While I suspect Bloomberg will win, I have some feeling it will be closer than most pundits are saying it will.


NY-23

Big Race: Representative to Congress

Candidates: Bill Owens (D), Doug Hoffman (C)

Analysis: Until this weekend, I would have expected the conservative vote to split about evenly between Republican Dierdre Scozzafava and Hoffman - running on the Conservative Party ticket - allowing Owens to squeak by with a slim victory. On Saturday, however, Scozzafava dropped out - leaving a mass of conservatives to support Hoffman. Of course, she did endorse Owens upon exiting the race, and the district as a whole is far more moderate than Hoffman. Nonetheless, the conservative base is fired up and likely to bring in way more support for Hoffman on Election Day than Scozzafava can do for Owens. In fact, DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen appears to be conceding on that point already.

Predictions: Hoffman will win, and probably by a substantial margin.

Top Stories 10/19/09

Politico reports on the White House's efforts to divide and neutralize the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

The Huffington Post reports that Sarah Palin has created a LinkedIn page and lists "job inquiries" among her interests.

Nate Silver runs a model to find that Maine will more likely vote down a gay marriage ban than pass one.

E.J. Dionne of the Washington Post writes on the growing concern about young voters staying home in 2010.

And here are the best late night political jokes from the weekend:

The Top 3 Blogs for Gay Rights Advocacy

Summary: As the gay rights movement builds momentum, we ask "how are LGBT activists using New Media to advance their cause?"

As many of you are probably well aware, a swarm of LGBT rights advocates marched through Washington DC on Sunday in protest of the military’s “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” policy, and in support of gay marriage.

When asked about the White House’s views towards the demonstrations, NBC Washington correspondent John Harwood said they view it as “the internet left fringe…[and that] those bloggers need to take off the pajamas and realize governing a closely divided country is complicated.”

Watch it here:



In fact, the blogosphere has been a widely used tool by the LGBT-supportive community - and they appear to be using that tool effectively. So we thought we would point out what we believe are the “Top 3 Blogs for Gay Rights Advocacy” - which we chose based on three determinants: 1) Building Sympathy for the Cause, 2) Supplying Ample Information on the Progress of Gay Rights, and 3) Organizing Support for LGBT Advocacy.


Asterisk

Written by a self-described gay Christian, he explains his blog as such:

"All my life, I’d placed an Asterisk next to my name. Nobody else saw my Asterisk, but I did. It was a constant reminder that both of the most important parts of me were mutually exclusive. That my difference made me a bad person…

…Nowadays, I don’t worry about my Asterisk. As far as I’m concerned it’s gone…

…And that’s what this blog is about; exposing the Asterisk, and with that exposure, removing it."

We chose this blog because of how it effectively and appropriately builds sympathy for the LGBT community - the blog is filled with heart-wrenching stories about discrimination against LGBT individuals. For example, his most popular post at the moment is about a lesbian who was denied her right to see her partner as she was dying in a southern hospital.

From the post:

We arrived shortly after 3:30 in the afternoon, around 4pm, a social worker came out and introduced himself as Garnett Frederick and said, “you are in an anti-gay city and state. And without a health care proxy you will not see Lisa nor know of her condition”. He then turned to leave; I stopped him and asked for his fax number because I said “we had legal Durable Powers of Attorney” and would get him the documents. Within a short time of meeting this social worker, I contacted friends in Lacey, WA, our hometown, who went to our house and faxed the legal documents required for me to make medical decisions for Lisa…

…A Hospital Chaplain appeared and asked if I wanted to pray and I looked at her dumbfounded as if I hadn’t already been doing that for over four hours. I immediately asked for a Catholic Priest to perform Lisa’s Last rites. A short time later, a Catholic priest escorted me back to recite the Last Rites and it was my first time in nearly 5hrs of seeing Lisa. After seeing her I knew the children needed to see her immediately and be able to say their goodbyes and begin the grieving process. Yet the priest escorted me back out to the waiting room. Where I was faced with the young faces of our beautiful children to explain “other mommy” was going to heaven.

You can access “Asterisk” at blog.mattalgren.com


Gay Rights Watch

You can consider this the Huffington Post of the gay rights movement. It is complete with opinions, news, commentary, and even the more light-hearted issues of LGBT advocacy. Based out of Portland, it is one of the most well-maintained blogs we’ve seen in a while

From the “About Us” page:

"Since March 2005 we’ve been bringing news regarding the gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender community. At times we’ve been known as being a bit controversial and sometimes it even gets us in hot water namely with anti-gay lobbyists and legislators, but mainly we’re known as a great source of news for the GLBT community."

We chose this website because of the massive extent of information it provides on the progress of gay rights.


To try to give you a taste would be futile, you’ll just have to check it out for yourself.

You can visit Gay Rights Watch at blog.gayrightswatch.com.


The Bilerico Project

Like Gay Rights Watch, The Bilerico Project provides well-rounded news, analysis, and light-hearted coverage of the gay rights movement. The only difference is that this website is more politically active.

From the “About Us” page:

"The Bilerico Project is the web's largest LGBTQ group blog with over 75 lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer, and genderqueer contributors. The Project features LGBTQ activists, politicos, journalists, novelists, advice columnists, and video bloggers who are high-energy, inquisitive, eloquent experts in their professions.

Some are among the top LGBTQ pundits and leaders in the country; others have made their mark in their state or local communities. Each brings a unique perspective and background to their work, offering analysis and opinion on almost every aspect of LGBTQ politics and culture. They spark creative and productive conversations among our growing readership. Our goal is to foster those conversations in order to strengthen us as individuals and as a community.

At Bilerico Project, we don't break the news. We shape the news."

We chose this blog because it does a great job at advancing the gay rights movement via organizing support for LGBT advocacy. For example, they have an Employment Non-Discrimination Act (ENDA) Targeted Legislator of the Day, who they put pressure on to support the yet-to-be-passed bill.

And one recent post looked like a fundraising email:

Once again, a generous donor and Bilerico reader has offered to match donations to our ActBlue Maine Page up to $1000 to help protect marriage equality for all families! The deadline is in six hours!

We need your help, though! Our donor will only match if at least 12 people contribute. After all the excitement of the National Equality March, let's come out in strong support of Maine and help us meet our goal!

Donate to No On 1/Maine marriage equality via Bilerico's ActBlue page and your donation will be doubled! You have to act fast though - state law cuts off contributions for this reporting period at 11:59pm tonight! Donate now to get twice the benefit!!

If 1/4 of our RSS subscribers alone gave $5, we'd be able to give Maine an extra $6000 at the last moment when they need it most. If you can't do much, can you give $5?

To access The Bilerico Project, visit www.bilerico.com.


Other good pro-gay rights blogs include Queers United, The Mad Professah Lectures, and From the Left.

To try to undermine the impact these blogs have on public opinion - and even the future of public policy - would be unwise. Just as the online network of Tea Party activists and other conservatives seems to have shifted public opinion on economic concerns lately, the online network of gay or pro-gay bloggers appears to be affecting the social debate.

Support for gay rights - including gay marriage - is at an all time high. If these bloggers can upkeep its relevancy and continue building sympathy for the cause, providing extensive coverage of gay rights progress, and organize activism, the goals of the gay rights movement are sure to be met in time.

A Rekindling of the Gay Marriage Debate?

Summary: Will gay marriage make a comeback? What the right said and what it means for the continuing debate.

The Washington Independent picked up a story from the Values Voters Summit yesterday which may reignite the debate over same-sex marriage nationwide.

Sen. Tom Colburn’s (R-OK) chief-of-staff, Michael Schwartz, made some incredibly conservative comments about homosexuality and pornography in an address about “new masculinity” on Sunday.

From the article:

“Pornography is a blight,” Schwartz told an audience in a crowded room of the Omni Shoreham hotel. “It is a disaster. It is one of those silent diseases in our society that we haven’t been able to overcome very well. Now, I may be getting politically incorrect here. And it’s been a few years, but not that many, since I was closely associated with pre-adolescent boys, boys around 10 years of age. But it is my observation that boys of that age have less tolerance for homosexuality than just about any other class of people. They speak badly about homosexuality. And that’s because they don’t want to be that way. They don’t want to fall into it.”

Schwartz told the crowd about Jim Johnson, a friend of his who turned an old hotel into a hospice for gay men dying of AIDS. “One of the things he said to me,” said Schwartz, “that I think is an astonishingly insightful remark… he said ‘All pornography is homosexual pornography, because all pornography turns your sexual drive inwards.”

There were murmurs and gasps from the crowd. “Now, think about that,” said Schwartz. “And if you tell an 11-year-old boy about that, do you think he’s going to want to get a copy of Playboy? I’m pretty sure he’ll lose interest. That’s the last thing he wants! You know, that’s a good comment, it’s a good point, and it’s a good thing to teach young people.”

And of course, the remarks have begun to go viral with this YouTube clip of the speech:



While nothing was said about gay marriage in particular, it’s sure to be a speech that will rile up the pro-gay left more than the religious right. Nate Silver’s post last night about the passion of gay marriage opposition explains that it’s now the liberals who feel more comfortable about sticking up for their beliefs on this topic.

It makes sense too. Back in April, we commented on what Miss California said about gay marriage during the Miss America pageant:

"By the middle of the next decade, we might very well talk about legalizing gay marriage nationally - and it may even be possible…support for gay rights is increasing at a faster pace than support for race-and/or-gender-based civil rights did…

…The GOP may be slow to recognize this growing support. Recently, the Miss USA pageant found itself in the middle of the gay marriage issue…

…Gay marriage is no longer an issue that conservatives should feel comfortable discussing on their terms - even religious terms. Far too many Americans have a deep support for LGBT rights these days, including marriage. Miss California's answer was too polarizing - not the question."

The gay marriage debate has cooled down recently since it flared up earlier this year when Iowa, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine all legalized gay marriage. Will these comments make it a heated issue yet again? Time will tell.

Top Stories: 9/21/09

The Family Research Council hosted its annual Values Voters Summit over the weekend. Politico reports that a straw poll taken there finds that Mike Huckabee is the front-runner for President in 2012 among the religious right.

Also from that straw poll, FiveThirtyEight.com explains how passionate opposition to gay marriage is waning among Evangelicals.

Is that why former President George W. Bush refused to talk about it in the end? The Huffington Post reports on more Bush Administration dirt from the new book by Bush speechwriter Matt Latimer.

Meanwhile, the AP reported updates on Rep. Joe Wilson's (R-SC) re-election prospects over the weekend.

And President Obama appeared on all 3 network Sunday morning talk shows. Here are some of the highlights:

In Politics, Money Makes All the Difference

It has been remarkable following gay rights issues in Washington over the past 48 hours. The White House has announced that President Obama will be signing an executive order sometime today to extend federal employee benefits to same-sex couples. Yet it all started because of a gay-oriented fundraiser that several gay activists and bloggers became upset about.

It wasn’t long before several prominent gay rights advocates - including a leader from the Human Rights Campaign - pulled out of an Organizing for America fundraiser featuring Vice President Biden because the administration had thus far made no move to repeal the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA) or the military’s “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” policy.


Much of it stems from a Justice Department brief filed in California recently that not only defended DOMA, but drew parallels between the gay marriage case before the court and several possible precedent cases involving incestuous marriages.

From a Politico update yesterday:

"I will not attend a fundraiser for the National Democratic Party in Washington next week when the current administration is responsible for these kind of actions," [activist David] Mixner wrote of a motion to dismiss a challenge to the Defense of Marriage Act that drew a parallel between same-sex marriage to incestuous marriage. "How will they ever take us seriously if we keep forking out money while they harm us? For now on, my money is going to battles within the community such as the fight in Maine or the March on Washington! I am so tired of being told by Democratic operatives to 'suck it up' because so many other profound issues are at stake."

It was a good idea - not only is the LGBT community a critical base of support for Democrats, but they are a generally wealthy one.

Suddenly the Obama folks were caught off guard. DNC Treasurer Andrew Tobias, scrambling to come up with a quick response, could only say “If this debacle of a brief represented the president's views, I'd boycott too,” and then sent an email that not only said “So...counterintuitive as it may feel at this moment...come to DC for our dinner June 25, and hear what the Vice President of the United States has to say as he joins Governor Kaine and Governor Dean and Barney Frank and others in celebrating Gay Pride” but also reassured the recipients that there would be protesters outside the event!

Finally - out of nowhere - the White House made it clear last night that Obama would introduce basic benefits of domestic partnerships to LGBT federal employees.

Of course, the benefits cannot include some health and pension benefits due to DOMA restrictions - which the White House says Obama wants Congress to overturn - and so the decision received mixed reactions.

Now, this is not to say that the decision to create domestic partnerships for federal employees was based solely on dollars and cents. It is certainly the President’s wish to extend gay rights, and we can expect a move on issues such as “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell,” the Employee Non-Discrimination Act, and repealing DOMA in the future.

But the fact that the economy, health care, and other issues have been priorities (that could be derailed if the administration was to upset the GOP with gay rights issues) has stalled the President from making this move so far.

It looks like this serious uproar from gay rights advocates (and more importantly, donors) just got the ball rolling.

How the Millennials Are Shifting the American Opinion

It is well known that Americans under 30 are far more supportive of gay marriage, protecting the environment, and other liberal concerns than older Americans. But a new ABC News - Washington Post poll finds that such support has bigger implications than ever before.

The best example: For the first time in the history of this poll (and probably in most respected surveys) a plurality of Americans support gay marriage.


With Americans under 30 supporting it by a 2-to-1 margin, 49% of all respondents said they supported gay marriage, while only 46% said they were opposed. 48% of respondents between the ages of 30 and 64 supported expanding marriage, and just 28% of respondents older than 65 agreed.

But it’s not just the marriage issue in which the Millennials are making a difference.

Americans under 30 were one of the most supportive demographics of stricter regulations on greenhouse emissions. 80% of these young adults supported such tougher environmental policies, compared to 64% of seniors. As a result, 75% of all respondents supported regulating emissions.

Meanwhile, support for the decriminalization of marijuana is at an all time high. This is something that has been known for months, but now there is evidence that the shift towards legalizing pot is due (in part) to the Millennial generation.


According to the pollsters:

"Support for legalizing small amounts of marijuana for personal use is nearly twice as high among young adults (57 percent of those under 30) as seniors (30 percent), with middle-aged Americans split about evenly."

Finally, opinions on illegal immigration are rapidly changing, due (again in part) to the rise of the Millennials.

"In another difference by age, 85 percent of senior citizens say the U.S. isn’t doing enough to keep illegal immigrants from coming into the country; that eases to a still-substantial 65 percent of under 30s. And support for a path to citizenship for illegals is 31 points higher among under 30s than it is among seniors, 73 percent vs. 42 percent."

But how will it affect elections or policy?

Younger voters are notoriously bad about voting. Each election cycle pundits talk about the youth vote, only to see it improve mildly (if at all). As a result, such views as seen above are not as reflective of the voting population - and that makes an enormous difference.

But last year more than 23 million Americans under 30 cast their ballot in the Presidential contest. What was truly remarkable wasn’t that there was a 4% increase in youth turnout, but that this generation was so overwhelmingly supportive of Barack Obama.

As college student and DNC member Jason Rae told us in early January:

"Had the margin been smaller, like previous elections, many of the states that were decided by only the narrowest of margins would have gone the other way. Take for example places like Indiana or North Carolina. Drop the support of young voters from 66% to say, perhaps, only 60% and you would likely see an entirely different person taking the oath of office on January 20."

Therefore it is critical for campaigns to recognize the importance of young voters and the impact that the Millennial generation can make on the political scene. Convincing them to vote is difficult, but it can make a huge difference when they do.

Gay Marriage Becomes Relevant Again - But Is It More Popular This Time?

During the Bush Administration, Republicans made a point of using gay marriage as a wedge issue, knowing it was unpopular to the majority of Americans and that it could bring conservative voters to the polls to support GOP politicians.

But then the economy collapsed, and gay marriage was not an issue in the 2008 Presidential race.

Now, because it is legal in Iowa and Vermont, gay marriage is an issue again - especially in the state of New York. Recently, Governor David Patterson (D-NY) proposed legislation to legalize gay marriages in the Empire State, and there is a small chance it could pass.

According to some recent polling, a plurality - or even a majority - of New Yorkers support gay marriage.


Even in Upstate New York, the majority of respondents are in favor.

The bill is expected to pass the New York Assembly easily, but may have trouble in the State Senate - Democrats only control 32 of the 62 seats, and at least 3 of them have voiced opposition to the legislation.

And with strong Republican opposition, the bill might not even come to a vote this year.

But as we have mentioned before, the tides are changing on this issue. The political statistics guru, Nate Silver, believes that more than half the states in the union could defeat theoretical gay marriage bans within the next five years.

By the middle of the next decade, we might very well talk about legalizing gay marriage nationally - and it may even be possible. Democratic Strategist Anne Greenberg recently told Salon that support for gay rights is increasing at a faster pace than support for race-and/or-gender-based civil rights did (although the rate of the support’s growth was still rather slow).

The GOP may be slow to recognize this growing support. Recently, the Miss USA pageant found itself in the middle of the gay marriage issue.

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

We never thought we’d say these next words: we have to agree with Perez Hilton.

Gay marriage is no longer an issue that conservatives should feel comfortable discussing on their terms - even religious terms. Far too many Americans have a deep support for LGBT rights these days, including marriage. Miss California's answer was too polarizing - not the question.

Some, like the former GOP Presidential candidate’s daughter, are catching on. Meghan McCain recently wrote in her Daily Beast column: “That more and more people are discussing gay rights speaks positively for the millions of young and progressive Republicans.” She has said in the past that if the GOP does not support gay marriage they will be on the losing side of history.

But who are some of these young and progressive Republicans? The answer might surprise you: evangelical kids.

From Greenberg’s answers to Salon:

"We did an oversample of young white evangelicals, and obviously this is a community who is very hostile to gay marriage. But what was interesting was that the same generational differences that we see in the population overall, we saw in evangelicals. It turns out that the majority of young white evangelicals oppose gay marriage; [but] a majority, 57 percent, [support] some sort of legal recognition."

If Republicans are going to have this sort of confusion within their ranks it seems even more unlikely that they will be able to use the gay marriage issue the way they have in the months and years ahead.

Is the gay marriage issue back? Yes.

Do liberals have to fear? Not anymore.

The Liberal Quadfecta - Gay Rights, Stimulus, Socialists, and Easter Eggs

It’s Friday, April 10, 2009. Here’s what we’re looking at:

With the Iowa decision a week ago today and recent legislation in Vermont and Washington, DC, FiveThirtyEight.com is having an unofficial “Gay Rights Week” according to blogger Andrew Gelman. They have done some very insightful posts on a Congressional fiat in DC, what the polls say about Americans’ attitudes towards gay marriage, and polls about employment discrimination against homosexuals.

We’ve mentioned before that Gov. Mark Sanford (R-SC) is feeling the heat from his constituents due to his rejection of stimulus funds. Now he is on the air in South Carolina defending himself.



Rep. Spencer Bachus (R-ÁL) recently told a group of local officials at a breakfast with them that “Some of the men and women I work with in Congress are socialists”. When asked to clarify, he said that 17 members of Congress were socialists. He did not name names, so it is unclear whether he had been thinking this for some time or if he was just pulling a Bob Dylan (Start watching at 0:47).



Finally, the Obama staff has released the design for this year’s eggs in the White House Easter Egg Roll. Pretty interesting.


Have a Happy Easter Weekend!

What is the Future of Gay Marriage in Iowa?

As you have probably heard by now, the Iowa Supreme Court ruled unanimously Friday that marriage must be open to gay and lesbian individuals. Because gay marriage is now legal in a “heartland” state - and not just liberal coast states - this is an historic ruling that will most certainly uplift liberals and terrify conservatives.


But one need look no further than California to know that a State Supreme Court ruling can quickly be overturned by the people - the infamous Proposition 8 killed California’s short lived legality of gay marriage.

Will the same thing happen in Iowa?

An amendment to the Iowa Constitution will be necessary to overturn the Court’s decision. The process to do so will take at least three years - so gay marriage will still be legal in Iowa until at least 2012. It requires approval of consecutive General Assemblies of the State Legislature (the next of which will not begin until 2010) and a statewide referendum.

Theoretically, neither should be too difficult to achieve. A poll taken by the University of Iowa in November found the majority of Iowans (62%) opposed gay marriage.

Yet almost half of those who opposed gay marriage did approve of civil unions - a popular stance among Iowa’s Democratic politicians.


There are two ways such a referendum would move forward. The first is an amendment that would ban gay marriage but set up a way to ensure civil unions. It would be the moderate position that would gain majority support in the State Legislature and many opposed to both gay marriage and civil unions may support it out of pragmatism. But there will be plenty of conservative voters who will not be able to bring themselves to vote for any recognition of gay unions, and a majority might not be reached.

The other way is an amendment that bans both gay marriage and civil unions - an amendment that principled conservatives could support and that most moderates would prefer to the status quo. This would be an amendment less likely to pass through the State Legislature, but more likely to pass by referendum.

Either way, it is not hard to imagine the battle lines already being drawn for a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage in Iowa, with the war chests and political forces already gathering together for a face-off in the years to come. And with three years before a possible referendum to finally ban gay marriage in this Midwest heartland state, both camps will have plenty of time to wage a strong campaign to shift public opinion far enough to their side.

It is a fight that the nation will look to with the utmost interest - with greater attention paid to it than Proposition 8 in California or similar efforts in Massachusetts, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, or Vermont. As a moderate state that represents rural, traditionalist America, Iowa may very well become the defining example of progress in the history of the Gay Rights Movement.

As they say in Presidential contests, "as Iowa goes, so goes the nation".



UPDATE: A recent post by Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com finds that Iowa could potentially defeat a gay marriage ban by 2012.

Using a model he developed, he finds that each year a proposed ban will lose 2% of it's support. By 2012 one could expect such a ban in Iowa to pass with only 50.4% - basically a toss-up. He also includes a timeline of when we can expect each state to vote down theoretical gay marriage bans.

These findings seem to be consistent with the general notion that younger voters support gay marriage by wider margins. As older voters die and younger people reach the voting age it becomes harder and harder to pass such a referendum. This is, of course, in addition to the broader change in attitude among Americans - many of whom are finding themselves supportive of gay marriage when they use to oppose the idea.