Campaign Updates (7/8/09)

Minnesota

The Franken-Coleman race is finally over and Sen. Al Franken (D-MN) was sworn in yesterday. Below is the oath he took.




Illinois

News today is that Attorney General Lisa Madigan (D-IL) will not be running for Senate against Richard Burris (or for governor against Pat Quinn) who has bad Blagojevich ties that could hurt him in 2010.

Chris Cillizza at the Washington Post makes some predictions as to who will seek the seat now:

"With Madigan out of the Senate race, expect businessman Chris Kennedy to quickly announce his candidacy, joining state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias in the Democratic primary. Madigan's no-go decision also makes it far more likely that Rep. Mark Kirk, by far Republicans strongest candidate, will make the race."

Madigan’s decision is expected to be made public later today.


Florida

Conservative Republican Senate candidate Marco Rubio has simply not raised a lot of money lately. Last quarter he raised about a tenth of what moderate primary opponent Charlie Crist expects to raise.

Meanwhile, Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL) raised a good $1.2 million for his Senate bid. As he told supporters “No other non-incumbent Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate today is raising the funds necessary to grow the movement that we are building together.” Of course, he still fell far short of Crist, who believes he raised about $3 million for the quarter.


New Jersey

The predictably ugly gubernatorial race is heating up. Seriously-at-risk incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine (D-NJ) released this ad against GOP opponent Chris Christie recently.



This comes after two fairly effective ads from the Republican Governors Association launched against Corzine last month.






New Hampshire

Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R-NH) is resigning to pursue a run for Senate to replace the retiring Judd Gregg (and, yes, Democrats are now comparing her to Palin for it).

This will be a closely watched race, no doubt, because of the prospects Democrats have of eliminating the GOP from New England, at least in Congressional races.

State Rep. Jim Splaine (D-Portsmouth) lays out a good analysis of Ayotte’s chances of winning - both the pros and cons for her candidacy.


Virginia

Big news from the Commonwealth today (and bad news for Democrats) - Republican Bob McDonnell has expanded his lead over Democrat Creigh Deeds to 49% - 43%. It appears that the post-primary hype for Deeds has slowed down.

Among independents, McDonnell leads 54% - 33%, a serious disadvantage for the Deeds campaign. Luckily the vast majority of Democrats have thrown their support for Deeds now in the general election - but the harsh and ugly three-way gubernatorial Democratic primary may have been a turn-off to independents.

Additionally, Republicans lead Democrats in all three statewide races this year.


Interest Groups Playing Nice?

It’s not everyday you see an interest group making an issue ad that’s supportive of a politician - typically they end with something along the lines of “call _____ and tell him/her to stop being such a jerk.”

But Americans United for Change is airing an unusually friendly ad for House members that supported the recent climate bill, asking voters to thank them for their decision.

The New and Emboldened GOP

In its second time through the US House of Representatives, the economic stimulus bill - once again - passed without a single Republican vote.

Just a day before the GOP tried to embarrass President Obama in terms of bipartisanship on the stimulus package, Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH) - Obama’s pick for Secretary of Commerce - withdrew his nomination on the grounds of policy differences on the stimulus bill and conducting the 2010 Census.

In these new political stunts the Republican Party appears to be an emboldened force again on Capitol Hill. As Charles Mahtesian at Politico writes:

“the New Hampshire senator's surprise decision to remove himself from consideration as President Barack Obama’s commerce secretary Thursday has provided the GOP with a new rallying cry, and a new hero against a foe who just a few weeks ago seemed almost unassailable.

In a way, it’s all a testament to just how far the Republican Party have fallen; what passes for victory now is an embarrassing flip-flop by an admired GOP senator and the passage of a massive economic recovery bill that most Republicans on the Hill oppose bitterly.”

Does an emboldened GOP mean danger for Democrats?

Despite this unity against the new President, the Congressional Republicans are taking some serious risks pertaining to how they will be viewed by the public. Not only will the withdrawal make Gregg and the GOP look undesirable in New Hampshire in 2010, but the opposition to the stimulus plan banks on the hope that the plan fails.

As a recent Gallup poll shows, nearly 60% of Americans currently support the stimulus plan. Even 28% of Republicans support the stimulus, which is only striking because exactly 0% of House Republicans do. More importantly, 56% of independents support the stimulus - enough that Republicans should be concerned about appearing too far to the right.

So the GOP is not showing this stubbornness out of popular opinion - they are specifically going “all-in” at the poker table, waiting for the final card to be flipped. And because the ideas of contracyclical economics are pretty solid, the odds are stacked against them.