It’s Friday, March 13, 2009. Here’s what we’re looking at:
Two new polls released by Gallup lately give interesting signs about the American electorate.
The first is Congressional approval ratings. This month, Americans gave Congress a four-year high mark. 39% of Americans approve of the job Congress is doing.
Republicans were quick to point out that is was Democrats that were particularly supportive of the 111th Congress. One GOP aide told Politico
"It seems to show a widening of a partisan divide, not the post-partisan Nirvana we were promised. The increase is all from Democrats,” the aide said. “Gallup has another poll out today that shows eight out of 10 Democrats trust government more than they trust the private sector. So it’s little wonder that Democrats like this Congress — they’re making government bigger each and every day."
It is partially true. Democratic approval of Congress has surged from 17% in the beginning of the year to 57% in March. Independents, however, are also giving Congress higher marks - up from 17% in January to 34% in March.
Even Republican approval hasn’t dropped too much - down just 1% from the beginning of the year.
Pleased with these numbers, the DNC launched a new "Party of No" clock on their website. It features a picture of John Boehner, Eric Cantor, and Mitch McConnell wearing “no” buttons. The goal is to pressure the Republicans into offering an alternative to President Obama’s proposed budget, or to get in line and support it.
The second Gallup poll released Wednesday found that Americans are becoming more skeptical towards the severity of global warming. 41% of Americans now believe that the seriousness of climate change is exaggerated by the news media.
Republicans and older Americans are among the most skeptical.
There is also a significant drop in the number of people who believe the effects of global warming have already began.
The “Bottom Line” according to Gallup:
Americans generally believe global warming is real. That sets the U.S. public apart from the global-warming skeptics who assembled this week in New York City to try to debunk the science behind climate change. At the same time, with only 34% of Americans saying they worry "a great deal" about the problem, most Americans do not view the issue in the same dire terms as the many prominent leaders advancing global warming as an issue.
Importantly, Gallup's annual March update on the environment shows a drop in public concern about global warming across several different measures, suggesting that the global warming message may have lost some footing with Americans over the past year.
This may have interesting implications to Government action on green technology and climate change legislation over the next year.
A recent letter to the editor of the International Journal of Epidemiology argued that Republicans lead healthier lives than Democrats.
The authors of the referred study - a doctoral student and a professor of health studies, both at Harvard University - suggested that:
"The observation that [R]epublicans enjoy better health status may reflect the core [R]epublican value of individual responsibility, which could translate into increased adherence to health-promoting behaviours."
Overall, the study controlled the factors of age, sex, race, marital status, religious service attendance, highest educational degree, and total family income (all of which have their own implications towards an individual’s health) and found Republicans were 25% less likely than Democrats to be in poor health.
In making these observations, they analyzed General Social Survey data from 1972-2006. The number one factor they found in contributing to this difference in health and political ideology was smoking. Democrats, they found, were 15% more likely to be smokers.
The study also found that Republicans might enjoy greater well-being because of a greater sense of spirituality "which may lead to health promoting social conditions such as enhanced social ties and networks."
Andrew at FiveThirtyEight.com took issue with these findings. In a post last night he wrote:
"I think a lot more could, and should, be done here, for example using the full four-point scale for self-reported health and having a better understanding of the transition from raw comparisons to the regression model."
He also mentioned a cause-and-effect issue at hand - as people get sick and need access to health care they may find themselves aligning more with the Democrats - although he was not totally convinced of that notion himself.
So are Republicans really healthier than Democrats?
As we mentioned in our post from Tuesday, there is an interesting new database published by America’s Health Insurance Plans (AHIP) - a lobby group for the Health Insurance industry - that looks into healthiness of Americans by state and congressional districts.
So we compiled some of the data from these "Resource for Well-Being" reports and compared them to the 2008 Election Results on a state-by-state basis.
We looked at four areas along the lines of the Harvard study - Healthy Behavior, Physical Health, Emotional Health, and the overall Well-Being Index (a function of the previous three areas, as well as Life Evaluation, Work Quality, and Basic Access to health care). Here is what we found:
The general trend here seems to be that the residents of blue states tend to adhere to healthier lifestyles. The more Democratic they vote, the better they tend take care of themselves. The top 5 states in this category were 1) New Mexico; 2) Vermont; 3) Montana; 4) Hawaii; and 5) California.
Again, the general trend here appears to be better physical health for states that vote more heavily Democratic. However, the top 5 states in this category were 1) Montana; 2) Wyoming; 3) Hawaii; 4) Colorado; and 5) North Dakota - only one of which is seen as a regular “blue state”. More telling is the bottom 5 states: 46) Oklahoma; 47) Arkansas; 48) Mississippi; 49) Kentucky; and 50) West Virginia - all of which are consistently red.
In terms of emotional health, we didn’t even bother trying to put a line on the graph - it’s too scattered. It seems there is almost no correlation between emotional health and political ideology. The top 5 states in this category were 1) Hawaii; 2) Alaska; 3) Wyoming; 4) Minnesota; and 5) Montana.
What is more interesting is that, of the top 10 states here, six of them were northern Prairie / Mountain states. Hawaii - which was by far the most Democratic-supportive state in 2008 (at 72%) - was also by far the most emotionally healthy state (though probably because people tend to be happy when they live in a tropical paradise).
Finally, we found that the general trend (in terms of the Well-Being function) was that states that were more Democratic-supportive tended to have higher well-being among their residents. However, there were yet again several peculiarities. The top 5 states in this category were 1) Utah; 2) Hawaii; 3) Wyoming; 4) Colorado; and 5) Minnesota.
It is important to mention that, unlike the Harvard study, we analyzed our data on a state-by-state basis rather than at the micro level. This might have important implications. For example, in California the suburban, GOP-voting Orange County resident might be getting more exercise than the inner-city, Democratic-voting, single parent of Los Angeles.
We also did not perform a control on factors such as age, race, gender, etc. There is no question that this accounts for a lot of differences between our figures and those of the Harvard study. It would not be farfetched to say that this is a shortfall in our analyses.
For example, men are more likely to vote Republican than women, and men have a shorter life expectancy than women. African-Americans are generally more susceptible to diseases such as cancer and diabetes, they are by far the most Democratic-supportive race in the United States, and the black population is not as widespread among the states as Whites or Latinos.
However, we doubt that the Harvard study made realistic conclusions. First of all, they used a lot of outdated data. For example, it is prudent to assume that smoking has decreased significantly among Democrats since 1972, and that Republicans may very well be smoking more than Democrats these days.
While we generally find that Democrats lead healthier lives in our own simulations, the most realistic conclusion to make is that political ideology has little-to-no bearing on the well-being of an individual. A more obvious trend is healthiness by region - those living in the Western states tend to be particularly healthy while those living in the Rust Belt and Appalachia are among the unhealthiest of Americans.
That being said, finding correlations between party-affiliation and things like healthiness are very interesting, and we hope to see more studies and discussions like this in the future.
Today WAYLA reports on local politics from Virginia.
On February 28th the Virginia General Assembly adjourned for the year - not to meet again until January 2010. Until then they will be fighting for their seats as state elections come in November.
As we’ve mentioned before, the House of Delegates is among the last pieces of Government still controlled by the Virginia GOP - and keeping that institution red may be difficult in 2009.
On Monday, Republican Delegate Clarke Hogan announced he would retire from the House, citing the responsibilities of owning and operating a business during tough economic times. But his decision to not seek a fifth term may be due to a sign of the times - a commonwealth quickly turning Democratic, and the possibility of having to serve in the minority.
Hogan will soon be speaking to Republicans considering a run to replace him, but from the look of things, Democrats are already eyeing the seat.
David M. Guill, a member of the Charlotte County Board of Supervisors, has filed his certificate of candidate qualification with the State Board of Elections. And House Minority Leader Del. Ward L. Armstrong, (D-Henry), said that other people expressed interest in the seat upon Hogan's unexpected announcement Sunday.
"We look to field a strong candidate and that's clearly a seat that we're interested in," Armstrong said. "That's what I would call pretty much a swing district [now]."
And Hogan is not the first, but the fourth Republican delegate to recently announce retirement.
If that’s not enough somber news for the Virginia GOP, then this surely should be - Delegate Jeff Frederick, chairman of the state party, is facing the prospect of a coup. Following a string of embarrassing stunts that put the party’s credibility at risk (or rather in disarray) a vote for his removal has been scheduled for April 4th.
Six GOP state Senators signed on to the coup yesterday, citing a blog post Frederick made on Twitter that released confidential GOP plans to turn a Democratic state Senator into a Republican.
But despite these GOP implosions, the question of whether or not Virginia is yet a “blue state” is up in the air. Two contributors to the Perpetual Post took two different stances on the question back in January.
The extent to which ideology has shifted in this traditionally-red-state is unclear. However, the Commonwealth’s GOP certainly appears to have some internal problems which are putting the party’s chances at retaining the House of Delegates at serious risk. In order to complete Virginia’s blue revolution, Democrats can only hope these problems persist.
It’s Tuesday, March 10, 2009. Here’s what we’re looking at:
Who is the true leader of the Republican Party? According to a new poll, more than two thirds of Americans say the GOP has no real leader.
Republicans are finding it difficult to attack Obama - especially the three dozen or so who represent districts that he won.
Finally, what Congressional Districts have the best well-being? Which ones are the happiest? Which ones have the most poverty? Which ones are the most educated? You can find out here.
Above is one example - the Congressional Districts by Work Quality.
Today WAYLA reports on local politics from Louisiana.
In a humorous bit of news last week, the Jefferson Parish Council unanimously approved a measure to have elected officials in the local government face drug tests.
The measure is meant to hold politicians - including the Parish President - to the same standards as parish employees, who also undergo drug testing.
According to the Times-Picayune, the American Civil Liberties Union has already compared the new policy to an “illegal search warrant,” despite the lack of opposition.
Councilman Chris Roberts - who pitched the idea - claims to have no target in mind among the eight elected officials in parish government.
It is also unclear what penalties an elected official might incur if they fail a test.
Why make such legislation at all?
It does not appear that there is any sort of widespread drug problem among Louisiana’s elected officials. Even if there were, studies show that Americans are generally becoming more accepting of illicit drug use - especially marijuana.
But socially-conservative politicians in states like Louisiana may be trying to make a point about civil liberties. The idea that your privacy is only important when you have something to hide is the idea that won last week in Jefferson Parish.
And Roberts said he had heard from state lawmakers that there could be legislation in Baton Rouge soon to make his policy change a state law.
A new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll released Tuesday shows Obama doing well with public opinion.
In the survey, 68 percent have a favorable opinion of the president, including 47 percent whose opinion is "very positive" — both all-time highs for Obama in the poll. Moreover, 67 percent say they feel more hopeful about his leadership and 60 percent approve of his job in the White House.
Yet the percentage of Americans who are confident that Obama has the right goals and policies for the country — 54 percent — is slightly smaller, suggesting that the president is more popular than his policies are.
On the other side of the spectrum, Republicans are taking a lot of heat for being too partisan.
Just 26 percent view the Republican Party positively, which is an all-time low for the party. That's compared with 49 percent who have a favorable view of the Democratic Party.
On the economy, not only do voters believe Democrats are better suited for fixing it than Republicans (48%-20%), but they are giving Obama a long leash. Only after 18 more months of recession (by September 2010) will the majority of voters blame Obama for the weak economy - about the same number that expect it to be over by then.
If the economists are right, this is good news for Obama. Nate Silvers from FiveThirtyEight.com charts the different expectations between economists and voters.
But perhaps most significant figure in the poll was this:
…these attitudes about Obama have helped fuel a big jump in the percentage of Americans who believe the U.S. is headed in the right direction, according to the poll. In January’s NBC/Journal poll, 26 percent said the country was on the right track; now 41 percent think that.
Will this Democratic honeymoon last?
Although American generally viewed the GOP negatively, the Republican message seems to be rubbing off.
The top three concerns about Obama's stimulus were that it contains too much pork-barrel spending, that its tax cuts are too small and that the spending is focused in the wrong areas.
What's more, 61 percent say they're more concerned that the federal government will spend too much money and will increase the size of the deficit, than they are concerned that the government will spend too little money in trying to get out of the recession.
In fact, while Obama’s approval rating has been consistently hovering between 60-70%, his disapproval rating has been growing steadily.
And the figures from the Real Clear Politics poll averages seem to confirm this trend.
As long as the old Reaganite arguments work, the GOP will continue to use them - even if it means appearing partisan in the short term. After all, once public opinion shifts on economic policies (to “doesn’t stimulus mean big government?”) the political environment could be dangerous for Democrats.
Here are the winners from yesterday’s local elections in Los Angeles and Chicago.
Los Angeles
Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa avoided a run-off in his re-election last night, as did City Councilwoman Wendy Greuel in her race for City Controller.
In the City Attorney race, Councilman and former prosecutor Jack Weiss appears to be headed for a run-off against Carmen "Nuch" Trutanich. In the race to replace Weiss, former Assemblyman Paul Koretz and David T. Vahedi will face each other in a run-off as well.
The run-off election date is May 19th.
Chicago
In the IL-5 race to replace White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel in the U.S. House of Representatives came to a close. Cook County Commissioner Mike Quigley took the Democratic nomination with 22% of the vote in a field of 12 candidates.
He will face Rosanna Pulido of the Republican Party (which had 6 primary candidates) and Matt Reichel of the Green Party (which had 5 primary candidates) on April 7th. However, the district tends to vote Democratic 2-1, and Quigley is obviously the favorite.
Tomorrow: we’ll discuss the new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll that gives President Obama some hopeful numbers - as well as some numbers that should draw concern.
Today WAYLA reports on local politics from Milwaukee.
On Saturday, Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker wrote an editorial for the Wall Street Journal explaining his opposition to the stimulus bill.
"Recently, a firestorm ignited in Wisconsin when I, as Milwaukee County executive, refused to submit a wish list to Gov. Jim Doyle for items in the federal "stimulus" package.
Gov. Doyle -- like other politicians -- had lined up at the federal trough begging for billions in "free money" to cover budget deficits and to fuel new spending. He and others simply couldn't understand and were outraged that I didn't join them, and that I didn't relent even after the president signed the stimulus bill into law."
In his State of the County Address last month, Walker said that the stimulus money should be used for suspending Wisconsin’s 5% sales tax for the rest of the year - which he claimed would save the typical Wisconsin family $3,000 for 2009 (although state and federal figures demonstrate it would be closer to $600).
A firestorm did ignite. Local businesses hoping for stimulus assistance cited the economic advantages of the bill, including spending on much needed waterway projects. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinelsaid “While those proposals could have some effect on consumer spending, the better use of stimulus money is on projects that put people to work.” And letters to the editor of the newspaper rushed in, accusing Walker of bad ideas, and being a "one-trick pony" (his one trick being tax-cuts).
So Walker wrote his Wall Street Journal piece in part as a rebuttal to such arguments. On the issue of public works projects, for example, he writes, "While the stimulus package might create a few construction jobs, the federal money will run out and those workers will lose their jobs."
You might be thinking that Walker either failed Economics 101 or never took the course (and you may very well be right) but there is another glaring factor. As Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett pointed out "I think he's getting ready to run for governor, that's what it was."
In fact, Walker raised over $272,000 in the final months of 2008 (more than twice what he raised in the 6 months prior) bringing his cash-on-hand to over $360,000. Recently he made a trip to Washington DC for a fundraiser with Wisconsin’s Republican Congressional Delegation. His next County Executive race would not be until 2012.
In addition, he has been increasing his attacks on Wisconsin’s Democratic governor, Jim Doyle. In his editorial he wrote:
"Wisconsin is afflicted with fiscal woes. In every budget he has signed, Gov. Doyle postponed difficult decisions using accounting gimmicks and excessive bonding to pay for ongoing operational costs. The most egregious example is the damage done to the transportation fund over the past six years, which uses state gas taxes and vehicle registration fees to fund road projects. The governor has raided the segregated fund for a total of $1.2 billion to cover ongoing operational costs for government programs. He's partially replaced the raided funds with $865.5 million in bonds."
And yet Wisconsinites generally support the stimulus plan that he is so vehemently against.
So what are the political motives for Walker to oppose the stimulus?
In 2006 Walker sent out letters to supporters indicating his wishes to run for governor. But after the Wisconsin GOP indicated they did not want a primary - and that Congressman Mark Green was their best shot - Walker ended a short-lived candidacy.
For 2010 he may have to compete with such Republican names as former Congressman Mark Neumann, businessman Mark Todd, and former State GOP Chair Rick Graber, who has recently returned from an ambassadorship to the Czech Republic. Whether facing them in a primary or an inner-party battle, Walker will want to portray himself as the most fiscally conservative. He will not want to repeat what happened last time.
Despite what his own constituents may think about the stimulus, Walker has to oppose it. After all, he hopes Milwaukee County is just a stepping stone for him.
Today WAYLA reports on local politics from Los Angeles.
Voters in the City of Angles will go to the polls tomorrow for local elections. Three races in particular - City Attorney, City Controller, and the District 5 Council Seat - are hotly contested.
City Attorney
Councilman Jack Weiss is facing three opponents in the race for City Attorney. According to a recent article in the Los Angeles Times, while Weiss was a good prosecutor (when he practiced) he does not have a lot of friends.
Complaints about Weiss' accessibility, his close alliance with Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and his openness to development began rolling in during the first round of questions. [At a recent forum Weiss missed] one opponent, Deputy Dist. Atty. David Berger, took out a photograph of Weiss and jokingly invited the audience to throw darts.
…Councilman Greig Smith said Weiss would be the first to admit that he's been "difficult to work with at times -- that's an understatement." Said Councilwoman Jan Perry: "I don't deal with him. It's easier not to."
Some council members privately grouse about Weiss' dismissive manner, his frequent absences from the council floor and his tendency to disappear when council members are honoring residents who have recently died.
And while many of these colleagues are willing to praise him for his skills as a prosecutor, he has had difficulty winning community support. One opponent, Holmby Hills, has an array of important endorsements from the Police Chief, labor unions, gun-control advocates and women’s organizations.
Sometimes experience isn’t everything.
City Controller
The race for City Controller has become particularly ugly in recent days after Councilwoman and candidate Wendy Greuel released this ad:
Her opponent responded with a press conference the next day:
Patsaouras has also been getting hit by the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, who has been at odds with him since he was appointed to the board of the Department of Water and Power 3 years ago. A recent union mailer criticized his supervision of a Metropolitan Transit Authority headquarter constructions. "Nick's development even included a bust to memorialize him," the mailer said.
It now seems that both candidates are running the risk of appearing too negative.
City Council - District 5
Meanwhile, the race to replace Weiss on the City Council is wide open. Most candidates are trying to distance themselves from Weiss. Neighborhood council member David Vahedi has earned some support from a coalition of groups that attempted a recall campaign against Weiss in 2007. Vahedi ran against Weiss in 2005.
Yet Vahedi has his work cut out for him. The candidate with the most name recognition, former State Assemblyman Paul Koretz, is running a tough campaign on a very anti-Weiss platform. He has also picked up the support from the County’s Labor Federation and has a detailed pro-homeowner plan to protect local residents hit hard by the housing market crash.
And then there is the former Chamber of Commerce chief, Robyn Ritter Simon, who has touted the fact that she is the only mother in the race. Playing on that theme she has “made public safety a central theme of her campaign, saying that it remains the district's top priority, despite debates about traffic and development.”
Whether the Westside district will go with a homeowner message, be drawn to a message of motherhood, decide on who will be least like their incumbent, or go with one of the three other candidates will only be realized after Tuesday.
Other Races
Most other races in the city are much more predictable. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa is expected to win without difficulty, as do most sitting members on the city council. That does not mean they aren’t spending money. One Councilman, Eric Garcetti opted to run this ad before Tuesday’s primary.
But according to the LA Timesyesterday, the uphill battle that the challengers face aren’t discouraging them. Because they do not have the money that the incumbents do (some have less than 1% of the funds their opponents have) they are using the internet to spread their word.
As recently as two months ago, David R. Hernandez said, he didn't even know what Facebook was. Today, he uses the popular Internet social-networking site to help spread the word about his steeply uphill campaign for Los Angeles mayor in Tuesday's municipal primary.
"I now have about 500 'friends' [on Facebook], and I am able to get them all news about my campaign in less than two minutes," said Hernandez, who also has run for Congress (twice), county supervisor and community college district trustee -- falling short each time.
Another mayoral candidate, David "Zuma Dogg" Saltsburg, has pointed to his use of the internet in his own campaign - updating his blog, www.ladailyblog.com, with his own earned media from TV, radio, and newspaper.
But this use of internet will not be enough. Los Angeles is a sprawling city where few residents will search out candidates on the internet.
"Internet technology has created campaign opportunities for underfunded candidates that didn't exist before," said Steven Afriat, a veteran Los Angeles political consultant who is not involved in any of Tuesday's municipal contests. But technology cannot make up for a weak message or an unqualified candidate, Afriat added. Otherwise, he said, "the Internet just becomes the lipstick on the pig."
And, of course, the campaign for Measure B will come to a close tomorrow as well.
It’s Friday, February 27, 2009. Here’s what we’re looking at:
A week ago today we showed you the conservative push-back to the stimulus package. Today we bring you the liberal push-back to that push-back.
President Obama’s address to Congress Tuesday night made public approval soar. The speech, which focused largely on the stimulus bill and upcoming domestic spending, received very positive reactions.
A CNN/Opinion Research poll found 68% of viewers reacted to the speech "very positively," 24% reacted "somewhat positively," and 8% negatively. Meanwhile, Gov. Bobby Jindal’s (R-LA) rebuttal was a catastrophe - his potential 2012 run for President took an immediate 13-point dive on the Intrade Prediction Market.
Meanwhile, AFSCME and Americans United for Change released this ad, blasting the GOP for opposing the stimulus package.
The liberal editorial board at the New York Times - earlier this week - blasted GOP governors that turned down stimulus money. In their summary they wrote:
Governors like Mr. Jindal should be worrying about how to end this recession while helping constituents feed and house their families — not about finding ways to revive tired election-year arguments about big spending versus small government.
On the other field of government money - the budget - Democrats are generally united behind President Obama’s plan. Rep. Jim Cooper (D-TN) for example, is a Blue Dog who tells the Times “the American people have been denied the truth for many years, they are willing to take their medicine if it leads to a strong country.”
The three races in New York City wrapped up yesterday with two clear victors and a likely victor in the third.
District 21 was taken by Julissa Ferreras, the chief-of-staff for former Council Member Hiram Monserrate. District 32 was won by up-and-coming NYC Republican Eric Ulrich who, at 29 years of age, will be the youngest person to sit on the City Council.
In District 49, Kenneth Mitchell has a 241 vote lead over the competition, though Deborah Rose has yet to concede.
In case you missed last night’s Presidential Address to Congress, we have included it here.
Today WAYLA reports on local politics from New York City.
Today there are three City Council districts up for grabs due to vacancies following the General Election back in November. They are District 21 (North Queens), District 32 (South Queens), and District 49 (North Shore of Staten Island). Each are hotly contested races. District 21
After the sitting council member, Hiram Monserrate, won his State Senate race in November, the field opened up for four Democrats coming from very different backgrounds and holding some very different ideas.
Among the candidates are George Dixon, a district leader of the Democratic Party and former community board member; Jose Giraldo, a businessman and community leader who immigrated to the U.S. when he was 19; Julissa Ferreras, the chief-of-staff to Monserrate; and Francisco Moya, a business director, public affairs director, and former aid in the State Legislature.
A big issue in this race is “who is best qualified?” and every candidate - except for Moya - has addressed the issue by claiming the most experience. They also disagree on another big issue in North Queens - overdevelopment.
Though she was seen as the leading candidate and has racked up the most endorsements, Ferreras has recently been criticized for mismanaging funds at Libre, a non-profit which she chaired. Despite Monserrate being the first Latino to hold the seat, three of the four contenders are Latinos this time around and some feel the Party might be trying to hold it as a Latino seat.
District 32
Five candidates are vying to replace Joseph Addabbo, who won a State Senate race in November. They include Geraldine Chapey, a professor at City University of New York, a Democratic district leader, and a non-profit director; Glenn DiResto, a recently retired NYPD lieutenant; Michael Ricatto, a businessman; Lew Simon, an activist, former candidate, and Democratic district leader; and Eric Ulrich, a Catholic Church fundraiser, former teacher and campaign worker, and a Republican district leader.
The personalities and stories behind each of the candidates is more telling of the race than the positions they take.
DiResto, for example, has touted a party line of “families first” and, as a result, was disqualified from the ballot because too close to the Working Families Party (a New York union party) and special elections are technically non-partisan.
Ulrich is only 23 and would be the youngest member to serve on the council. This charismatic young Republican is moderate and gives the New York Republican Party a good deal of optimism.
And then there is Ricatto, the President of his family’s business empire and a newcomer on the political scene. The driver of his campaign van - who had a suspended license as it was - hit and killed a nine-year-old boy last month. In addition to that challenge, he did not even live in the district until very recently - moving in specifically for the race. At a recent debate the crowd even shouted “carpetbagger” at him.
District 49
The number of candidates competing to represent this northern Staten Island seat has dwindled from nine to five in recent weeks. They are vying to replace Michael McMahon who won his Congressional race back in November.
The remaining five candidates are Tony Baker, a veteran, former schoolteacher, and reverend; Kenneth Mitchell, McMahon’s chief-of-staff while on the Council; Donald Pagano, an electrical contractor; Deborah Rose, a community advocate and secretary of Community Board No. 1; and Paul Saryian, a retired NYPD captain.
With the exception of Saryian, an independent, the candidates are all registered Democrats, where the Party has held this seat on the mostly-Republican island for more than 25 years. This district is also home to a great wave of immigrants and - compared to the rest of Staten Island - is quite diverse. Rose and Baker are both trying to become the first African-American to win the seat and Saryian is of Hispanic and Armenian descent.
The big issue in this race has been traffic congestion. Each candidate has addressed this issue in their own way to seem independent of the others. Rose, Mitchell and Saryian have proposed different light rail ideas. Rose and Pagano have also suggested increasing traffic on the Hudson ferry. Each candidate hopes that some of the federal stimulus money can cover these expenses.
What can we gather from these different races?
New York City is so big and diverse that it should be no surprise that these races seem so very distant from one another. In fact, with a population of over 8 million, the Big Apple is about the size of the average state - complete with its own array of issues and political values according to the different communities.
Today WAYLA reports on local politics from South Carolina.
According to a recent article in The Post and Courier - a Charleston, SC newspaper - lobbyists and elected officials from South Carolina owe the State Ethics Commission over $2.5 million.
Quite a few of them, in fact, owe the state hundreds of thousands of dollars.
How did they manage to run up such a large debt?
The answer is quite simple: they failed to accurately or sufficiently fill out campaign finance reports. This was especially easy for local races in which candidates did not think the law would be so strict for their elections.
One example in the article is a former Town Council member from Jonesville.
"Lucius Rice III, a former Jonesville Town Council member, owes more than $212,000 — and counting.
Rice first ran afoul of the commission when he failed to file a campaign disclosure form for the 2004 election and was fined $100. In 2006, the state hit him with a second fine for failing to file a statement describing his economic interests.
Because Rice has yet to address the original violations, his late penalties grow by $200 per day. The state has been garnishing Rice's employment wages for more than two years to the tune of about $10,000.
Rice said that after his job moved him to Charlotte, he never heard anything more from the state until it began to garnish his wages for what he thought was child support. 'It's ridiculous,' Rice said when The Post and Courier told him of his massive ethics commission fine. 'I served my community on council, and this is what I get? It's sad that they are doing this to someone out there trying to make a living.'
Rice finds it odd that the state couldn't locate him to notify him of the fines but seemed to have no trouble finding his paycheck to garnish his wages.
… Herbert R. Hayden Jr., executive director of the commission … said there's no excuse for failing to file the information. It's easy to do, particularly now that forms can be filled out online. 'It's no more difficult than filling out your checkbook register.'
At the same time, he said the fine totals in Rice's case and others have gotten out of hand. 'So many of those figures are totally unrealistic as far as ever collecting that money.'"
A few years ago, the State Legislature did pass a bill capping penalties at $5,000 but it was vetoed by Governor Mark Sanford.
A particularly harsh example is Richard Johnson, who served on the Eastover City Council from 2000 to 2006. He owes the state more than $430,000. Yet his only expenditure was a $50 registration fee for being placed on the ballot. As he told The Post and Courier, "I didn't have no campaign fund [sic]. This is a small town." Eastover has a population of 830 and a municipal budget of only $600,000.
Campaign finance law exists for a good reason - to stop the influence of special interests and the super-wealthy from essentially buying a government. But in practice there can be serious consequences for those who wouldn’t otherwise expect it.
Hopefully this knowledge of legal backlash should serve as a warning to prospective candidates and sitting elected officials: no matter what your office is, you must take campaign finance laws seriously.
It’s Friday, February 20, 2009. Here is what we’re looking at:
The National Republican Congressional Committee has launched a campaign against House Democrats (mostly freshmen) for supporting the stimulus package. It includes robo-calls against 11 Democratic Congresspersons and radio ads in 30 other Democratic districts.
The NRCC aren’t the only conservatives pushing back - the American Issues Project has started running the following television ad:
Is the push-back working?
A new CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll shows that President Obama’s approval rating has dropped about 10 points this month. Yet he still stands strong with 67% job approval. While the survey also suggests 60% of Americans support the stimulus, it is plausible that the conservative push-back has had an impact on Democrats.
WAYLA is proud to announce that today is our 100th post! We decided to take a look back at some of the things we’ve been looking at since we launched the blog over four months ago.
At first we brought you (what seemed like) day-to-day analysis on the race between Barack Obama and John McCain. We looked at polls, ads, and campaign tactics to determine the strength and smarts of each side.
Between the beginning of 2009 and the Inauguration on January 20th we asked a panel of political consultants and professionals - as well as an academic and a political observer - to give us their ideas on Why Obama Won Our panelists were: .
Kelly Fero - Democratic Strategist from Austin, TX
Lately we have been bringing you coverage of local politics as the nation holds spring elections. Places include Chicago, Virginia, Los Angeles, Louisiana, New York and others. We also conducted our first contest, "Can You Find Your Congressman?"
As we continue in the future, we want to know what you think we should be looking at! Leave a comment below to let us know!
What on WAYLA have you liked the most so far? "Know Your Third Parties", "Why Obama Won" or "Can You Find Your Congressman?" Tell us on our Facebook Page!
Today WAYLA Reports on local politics from Chicago.
The race to replace Rahm Emanuel in the House of Representatives has headed into the final few weeks before the March 3rd primary. The “leading candidates” for the Democrats are State Rep. John Fritchey, State Rep. Sara Feigenholtz, and Cook County Commissioner Mike Quigley.
However, several candidates that are not among the “leading” contenders have come out with campaign ads for television. Here are a few.
We have already seen Economist Charlie Wheelan under water, now he has another hokey spot to win over your heart.
Feigenholtz touts her legislative experience in her first ad.
And Physician Paul Bryar campaigns by jumping into a workingman’s car.
Can candidates like Wheelan and Bryar pull it off?
Television ads may be able to make up years of press coverage in the way of getting the voters to know you, but it takes a variety of media (and a generally well-rounded campaign) to win.
However, this should send a signal to Fritchey and Quigley that it may be time to do some ads of their own before it’s too late.
