Who Lead Healthier Lives - Democrats or Republicans?

A recent letter to the editor of the International Journal of Epidemiology argued that Republicans lead healthier lives than Democrats.

The authors of the referred study - a doctoral student and a professor of health studies, both at Harvard University - suggested that:

"The observation that [R]epublicans enjoy better health status may reflect the core [R]epublican value of individual responsibility, which could translate into increased adherence to health-promoting behaviours."

Overall, the study controlled the factors of age, sex, race, marital status, religious service attendance, highest educational degree, and total family income (all of which have their own implications towards an individual’s health) and found Republicans were 25% less likely than Democrats to be in poor health.

In making these observations, they analyzed General Social Survey data from 1972-2006. The number one factor they found in contributing to this difference in health and political ideology was smoking. Democrats, they found, were 15% more likely to be smokers.


The study also found that Republicans might enjoy greater well-being because of a greater sense of spirituality "which may lead to health promoting social conditions such as enhanced social ties and networks."

Andrew at FiveThirtyEight.com took issue with these findings. In a post last night he wrote:

"I think a lot more could, and should, be done here, for example using the full four-point scale for self-reported health and having a better understanding of the transition from raw comparisons to the regression model."

He also mentioned a cause-and-effect issue at hand - as people get sick and need access to health care they may find themselves aligning more with the Democrats - although he was not totally convinced of that notion himself.

So are Republicans really healthier than Democrats?

As we mentioned in our post from Tuesday, there is an interesting new database published by America’s Health Insurance Plans (AHIP) - a lobby group for the Health Insurance industry - that looks into healthiness of Americans by state and congressional districts.

So we compiled some of the data from these "Resource for Well-Being" reports and compared them to the 2008 Election Results on a state-by-state basis.

We looked at four areas along the lines of the Harvard study - Healthy Behavior, Physical Health, Emotional Health, and the overall Well-Being Index (a function of the previous three areas, as well as Life Evaluation, Work Quality, and Basic Access to health care). Here is what we found:


The general trend here seems to be that the residents of blue states tend to adhere to healthier lifestyles. The more Democratic they vote, the better they tend take care of themselves. The top 5 states in this category were 1) New Mexico; 2) Vermont; 3) Montana; 4) Hawaii; and 5) California.


Again, the general trend here appears to be better physical health for states that vote more heavily Democratic. However, the top 5 states in this category were 1) Montana; 2) Wyoming; 3) Hawaii; 4) Colorado; and 5) North Dakota - only one of which is seen as a regular “blue state”. More telling is the bottom 5 states: 46) Oklahoma; 47) Arkansas; 48) Mississippi; 49) Kentucky; and 50) West Virginia - all of which are consistently red.


In terms of emotional health, we didn’t even bother trying to put a line on the graph - it’s too scattered. It seems there is almost no correlation between emotional health and political ideology. The top 5 states in this category were 1) Hawaii; 2) Alaska; 3) Wyoming; 4) Minnesota; and 5) Montana.

What is more interesting is that, of the top 10 states here, six of them were northern Prairie / Mountain states. Hawaii - which was by far the most Democratic-supportive state in 2008 (at 72%) - was also by far the most emotionally healthy state (though probably because people tend to be happy when they live in a tropical paradise).


Finally, we found that the general trend (in terms of the Well-Being function) was that states that were more Democratic-supportive tended to have higher well-being among their residents. However, there were yet again several peculiarities. The top 5 states in this category were 1) Utah; 2) Hawaii; 3) Wyoming; 4) Colorado; and 5) Minnesota.

It is important to mention that, unlike the Harvard study, we analyzed our data on a state-by-state basis rather than at the micro level. This might have important implications. For example, in California the suburban, GOP-voting Orange County resident might be getting more exercise than the inner-city, Democratic-voting, single parent of Los Angeles.

We also did not perform a control on factors such as age, race, gender, etc. There is no question that this accounts for a lot of differences between our figures and those of the Harvard study. It would not be farfetched to say that this is a shortfall in our analyses.

For example, men are more likely to vote Republican than women, and men have a shorter life expectancy than women. African-Americans are generally more susceptible to diseases such as cancer and diabetes, they are by far the most Democratic-supportive race in the United States, and the black population is not as widespread among the states as Whites or Latinos.

However, we doubt that the Harvard study made realistic conclusions. First of all, they used a lot of outdated data. For example, it is prudent to assume that smoking has decreased significantly among Democrats since 1972, and that Republicans may very well be smoking more than Democrats these days.

While we generally find that Democrats lead healthier lives in our own simulations, the most realistic conclusion to make is that political ideology has little-to-no bearing on the well-being of an individual. A more obvious trend is healthiness by region - those living in the Western states tend to be particularly healthy while those living in the Rust Belt and Appalachia are among the unhealthiest of Americans.

That being said, finding correlations between party-affiliation and things like healthiness are very interesting, and we hope to see more studies and discussions like this in the future.

Little Hope in Sight for Virginia Republicans

Today WAYLA reports on local politics from Virginia.

On February 28th the Virginia General Assembly adjourned for the year - not to meet again until January 2010. Until then they will be fighting for their seats as state elections come in November.

As we’ve mentioned before, the House of Delegates is among the last pieces of Government still controlled by the Virginia GOP - and keeping that institution red may be difficult in 2009.

On Monday, Republican Delegate Clarke Hogan announced he would retire from the House, citing the responsibilities of owning and operating a business during tough economic times. But his decision to not seek a fifth term may be due to a sign of the times - a commonwealth quickly turning Democratic, and the possibility of having to serve in the minority.

Hogan will soon be speaking to Republicans considering a run to replace him, but from the look of things, Democrats are already eyeing the seat.

David M. Guill, a member of the Charlotte County Board of Supervisors, has filed his certificate of candidate qualification with the State Board of Elections. And House Minority Leader Del. Ward L. Armstrong, (D-Henry), said that other people expressed interest in the seat upon Hogan's unexpected announcement Sunday.

"We look to field a strong candidate and that's clearly a seat that we're interested in," Armstrong said. "That's what I would call pretty much a swing district [now]."

And Hogan is not the first, but the fourth Republican delegate to recently announce retirement.

If that’s not enough somber news for the Virginia GOP, then this surely should be - Delegate Jeff Frederick, chairman of the state party, is facing the prospect of a coup. Following a string of embarrassing stunts that put the party’s credibility at risk (or rather in disarray) a vote for his removal has been scheduled for April 4th.

Six GOP state Senators signed on to the coup yesterday, citing a blog post Frederick made on Twitter that released confidential GOP plans to turn a Democratic state Senator into a Republican.

But despite these GOP implosions, the question of whether or not Virginia is yet a “blue state” is up in the air. Two contributors to the Perpetual Post took two different stances on the question back in January.

The extent to which ideology has shifted in this traditionally-red-state is unclear. However, the Commonwealth’s GOP certainly appears to have some internal problems which are putting the party’s chances at retaining the House of Delegates at serious risk. In order to complete Virginia’s blue revolution, Democrats can only hope these problems persist.

The Struggling GOP and the Healthiest Americans

It’s Tuesday, March 10, 2009. Here’s what we’re looking at:

Who is the true leader of the Republican Party? According to a new poll, more than two thirds of Americans say the GOP has no real leader.



Republicans are finding it difficult to attack Obama - especially the three dozen or so who represent districts that he won.

Finally, what Congressional Districts have the best well-being? Which ones are the happiest? Which ones have the most poverty? Which ones are the most educated? You can find out here.


Above is one example - the Congressional Districts by Work Quality.

Local Politicians to be Held to Higher Standards

Today WAYLA reports on local politics from Louisiana.

In a humorous bit of news last week, the Jefferson Parish Council unanimously approved a measure to have elected officials in the local government face drug tests.

The measure is meant to hold politicians - including the Parish President - to the same standards as parish employees, who also undergo drug testing.

According to the Times-Picayune, the American Civil Liberties Union has already compared the new policy to an “illegal search warrant,” despite the lack of opposition.


Councilman Chris Roberts - who pitched the idea - claims to have no target in mind among the eight elected officials in parish government.

It is also unclear what penalties an elected official might incur if they fail a test.

Why make such legislation at all?

It does not appear that there is any sort of widespread drug problem among Louisiana’s elected officials. Even if there were, studies show that Americans are generally becoming more accepting of illicit drug use - especially marijuana.


But socially-conservative politicians in states like Louisiana may be trying to make a point about civil liberties. The idea that your privacy is only important when you have something to hide is the idea that won last week in Jefferson Parish.

And Roberts said he had heard from state lawmakers that there could be legislation in Baton Rouge soon to make his policy change a state law.

Approval Ratings - Does Obama Have Anything to Worry About?

A new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll released Tuesday shows Obama doing well with public opinion.

In the survey, 68 percent have a favorable opinion of the president, including 47 percent whose opinion is "very positive" — both all-time highs for Obama in the poll. Moreover, 67 percent say they feel more hopeful about his leadership and 60 percent approve of his job in the White House.

Yet the percentage of Americans who are confident that Obama has the right goals and policies for the country — 54 percent — is slightly smaller, suggesting that the president is more popular than his policies are.

On the other side of the spectrum, Republicans are taking a lot of heat for being too partisan.

Just 26 percent view the Republican Party positively, which is an all-time low for the party. That's compared with 49 percent who have a favorable view of the Democratic Party.

On the economy, not only do voters believe Democrats are better suited for fixing it than Republicans (48%-20%), but they are giving Obama a long leash. Only after 18 more months of recession (by September 2010) will the majority of voters blame Obama for the weak economy - about the same number that expect it to be over by then.

If the economists are right, this is good news for Obama. Nate Silvers from FiveThirtyEight.com charts the different expectations between economists and voters.



But perhaps most significant figure in the poll was this:

…these attitudes about Obama have helped fuel a big jump in the percentage of Americans who believe the U.S. is headed in the right direction, according to the poll. In January’s NBC/Journal poll, 26 percent said the country was on the right track; now 41 percent think that.

Will this Democratic honeymoon last?

Although American generally viewed the GOP negatively, the Republican message seems to be rubbing off.

The top three concerns about Obama's stimulus were that it contains too much pork-barrel spending, that its tax cuts are too small and that the spending is focused in the wrong areas.

What's more, 61 percent say they're more concerned that the federal government will spend too much money and will increase the size of the deficit, than they are concerned that the government will spend too little money in trying to get out of the recession.

In fact, while Obama’s approval rating has been consistently hovering between 60-70%, his disapproval rating has been growing steadily.

From Gallup Daily:



And the figures from the Real Clear Politics poll averages seem to confirm this trend.



As long as the old Reaganite arguments work, the GOP will continue to use them - even if it means appearing partisan in the short term. After all, once public opinion shifts on economic policies (to “doesn’t stimulus mean big government?”) the political environment could be dangerous for Democrats.

Spring Elections - UPDATE

Here are the winners from yesterday’s local elections in Los Angeles and Chicago.

Los Angeles

Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa avoided a run-off in his re-election last night, as did City Councilwoman Wendy Greuel in her race for City Controller.


In the City Attorney race, Councilman and former prosecutor Jack Weiss appears to be headed for a run-off against Carmen "Nuch" Trutanich. In the race to replace Weiss, former Assemblyman Paul Koretz and David T. Vahedi will face each other in a run-off as well.

The run-off election date is May 19th.

Chicago

In the IL-5 race to replace White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel in the U.S. House of Representatives came to a close. Cook County Commissioner Mike Quigley took the Democratic nomination with 22% of the vote in a field of 12 candidates.


He will face Rosanna Pulido of the Republican Party (which had 6 primary candidates) and Matt Reichel of the Green Party (which had 5 primary candidates) on April 7th. However, the district tends to vote Democratic 2-1, and Quigley is obviously the favorite.


Tomorrow: we’ll discuss the new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll that gives President Obama some hopeful numbers - as well as some numbers that should draw concern.

Is Opposing the Stimulus Locally Just a Political Strategy?

Today WAYLA reports on local politics from Milwaukee.

On Saturday, Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker wrote an editorial for the Wall Street Journal explaining his opposition to the stimulus bill.

"Recently, a firestorm ignited in Wisconsin when I, as Milwaukee County executive, refused to submit a wish list to Gov. Jim Doyle for items in the federal "stimulus" package.

Gov. Doyle -- like other politicians -- had lined up at the federal trough begging for billions in "free money" to cover budget deficits and to fuel new spending. He and others simply couldn't understand and were outraged that I didn't join them, and that I didn't relent even after the president signed the stimulus bill into law."

In his State of the County Address last month, Walker said that the stimulus money should be used for suspending Wisconsin’s 5% sales tax for the rest of the year - which he claimed would save the typical Wisconsin family $3,000 for 2009 (although state and federal figures demonstrate it would be closer to $600).


A firestorm did ignite. Local businesses hoping for stimulus assistance cited the economic advantages of the bill, including spending on much needed waterway projects. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel said “While those proposals could have some effect on consumer spending, the better use of stimulus money is on projects that put people to work.” And letters to the editor of the newspaper rushed in, accusing Walker of bad ideas, and being a "one-trick pony" (his one trick being tax-cuts).

So Walker wrote his Wall Street Journal piece in part as a rebuttal to such arguments. On the issue of public works projects, for example, he writes, "While the stimulus package might create a few construction jobs, the federal money will run out and those workers will lose their jobs."

You might be thinking that Walker either failed Economics 101 or never took the course (and you may very well be right) but there is another glaring factor. As Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett pointed out "I think he's getting ready to run for governor, that's what it was."

In fact, Walker raised over $272,000 in the final months of 2008 (more than twice what he raised in the 6 months prior) bringing his cash-on-hand to over $360,000. Recently he made a trip to Washington DC for a fundraiser with Wisconsin’s Republican Congressional Delegation. His next County Executive race would not be until 2012.

In addition, he has been increasing his attacks on Wisconsin’s Democratic governor, Jim Doyle. In his editorial he wrote:

"Wisconsin is afflicted with fiscal woes. In every budget he has signed, Gov. Doyle postponed difficult decisions using accounting gimmicks and excessive bonding to pay for ongoing operational costs. The most egregious example is the damage done to the transportation fund over the past six years, which uses state gas taxes and vehicle registration fees to fund road projects. The governor has raided the segregated fund for a total of $1.2 billion to cover ongoing operational costs for government programs. He's partially replaced the raided funds with $865.5 million in bonds."

And yet Wisconsinites generally support the stimulus plan that he is so vehemently against.

So what are the political motives for Walker to oppose the stimulus?

In 2006 Walker sent out letters to supporters indicating his wishes to run for governor. But after the Wisconsin GOP indicated they did not want a primary - and that Congressman Mark Green was their best shot - Walker ended a short-lived candidacy.

For 2010 he may have to compete with such Republican names as former Congressman Mark Neumann, businessman Mark Todd, and former State GOP Chair Rick Graber, who has recently returned from an ambassadorship to the Czech Republic. Whether facing them in a primary or an inner-party battle, Walker will want to portray himself as the most fiscally conservative. He will not want to repeat what happened last time.

Despite what his own constituents may think about the stimulus, Walker has to oppose it. After all, he hopes Milwaukee County is just a stepping stone for him.

Elections Tomorrow in Los Angeles

Today WAYLA reports on local politics from Los Angeles.

Voters in the City of Angles will go to the polls tomorrow for local elections. Three races in particular - City Attorney, City Controller, and the District 5 Council Seat - are hotly contested.

City Attorney

Councilman Jack Weiss is facing three opponents in the race for City Attorney. According to a recent article in the Los Angeles Times, while Weiss was a good prosecutor (when he practiced) he does not have a lot of friends.

Complaints about Weiss' accessibility, his close alliance with Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and his openness to development began rolling in during the first round of questions. [At a recent forum Weiss missed] one opponent, Deputy Dist. Atty. David Berger, took out a photograph of Weiss and jokingly invited the audience to throw darts.

…Councilman Greig Smith said Weiss would be the first to admit that he's been "difficult to work with at times -- that's an understatement." Said Councilwoman Jan Perry: "I don't deal with him. It's easier not to."

Some council members privately grouse about Weiss' dismissive manner, his frequent absences from the council floor and his tendency to disappear when council members are honoring residents who have recently died.

And while many of these colleagues are willing to praise him for his skills as a prosecutor, he has had difficulty winning community support. One opponent, Holmby Hills, has an array of important endorsements from the Police Chief, labor unions, gun-control advocates and women’s organizations.

Sometimes experience isn’t everything.

City Controller

The race for City Controller has become particularly ugly in recent days after Councilwoman and candidate Wendy Greuel released this ad:



Her opponent responded with a press conference the next day:



Patsaouras has also been getting hit by the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, who has been at odds with him since he was appointed to the board of the Department of Water and Power 3 years ago. A recent union mailer criticized his supervision of a Metropolitan Transit Authority headquarter constructions. "Nick's development even included a bust to memorialize him," the mailer said.

It now seems that both candidates are running the risk of appearing too negative.

City Council - District 5

Meanwhile, the race to replace Weiss on the City Council is wide open. Most candidates are trying to distance themselves from Weiss. Neighborhood council member David Vahedi has earned some support from a coalition of groups that attempted a recall campaign against Weiss in 2007. Vahedi ran against Weiss in 2005.

Yet Vahedi has his work cut out for him. The candidate with the most name recognition, former State Assemblyman Paul Koretz, is running a tough campaign on a very anti-Weiss platform. He has also picked up the support from the County’s Labor Federation and has a detailed pro-homeowner plan to protect local residents hit hard by the housing market crash.

And then there is the former Chamber of Commerce chief, Robyn Ritter Simon, who has touted the fact that she is the only mother in the race. Playing on that theme she has “made public safety a central theme of her campaign, saying that it remains the district's top priority, despite debates about traffic and development.”

Whether the Westside district will go with a homeowner message, be drawn to a message of motherhood, decide on who will be least like their incumbent, or go with one of the three other candidates will only be realized after Tuesday.

Other Races

Most other races in the city are much more predictable. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa is expected to win without difficulty, as do most sitting members on the city council. That does not mean they aren’t spending money. One Councilman, Eric Garcetti opted to run this ad before Tuesday’s primary.



But according to the LA Times yesterday, the uphill battle that the challengers face aren’t discouraging them. Because they do not have the money that the incumbents do (some have less than 1% of the funds their opponents have) they are using the internet to spread their word.

As recently as two months ago, David R. Hernandez said, he didn't even know what Facebook was. Today, he uses the popular Internet social-networking site to help spread the word about his steeply uphill campaign for Los Angeles mayor in Tuesday's municipal primary.

"I now have about 500 'friends' [on Facebook], and I am able to get them all news about my campaign in less than two minutes," said Hernandez, who also has run for Congress (twice), county supervisor and community college district trustee -- falling short each time.

Another mayoral candidate, David "Zuma Dogg" Saltsburg, has pointed to his use of the internet in his own campaign - updating his blog, www.ladailyblog.com, with his own earned media from TV, radio, and newspaper.

But this use of internet will not be enough. Los Angeles is a sprawling city where few residents will search out candidates on the internet.

"Internet technology has created campaign opportunities for underfunded candidates that didn't exist before," said Steven Afriat, a veteran Los Angeles political consultant who is not involved in any of Tuesday's municipal contests. But technology cannot make up for a weak message or an unqualified candidate, Afriat added. Otherwise, he said, "the Internet just becomes the lipstick on the pig."

And, of course, the campaign for Measure B will come to a close tomorrow as well.


Come back to WAYLA on Wednesday to see who wins!

Liberals Push Back on Conservative Push-Back

It’s Friday, February 27, 2009. Here’s what we’re looking at:

A week ago today we showed you the conservative push-back to the stimulus package. Today we bring you the liberal push-back to that push-back.

President Obama’s address to Congress Tuesday night made public approval soar. The speech, which focused largely on the stimulus bill and upcoming domestic spending, received very positive reactions.

A CNN/Opinion Research poll found 68% of viewers reacted to the speech "very positively," 24% reacted "somewhat positively," and 8% negatively. Meanwhile, Gov. Bobby Jindal’s (R-LA) rebuttal was a catastrophe - his potential 2012 run for President took an immediate 13-point dive on the Intrade Prediction Market.

Meanwhile, AFSCME and Americans United for Change released this ad, blasting the GOP for opposing the stimulus package.



The ad will run on cable nationally.

The liberal editorial board at the New York Times - earlier this week - blasted GOP governors that turned down stimulus money. In their summary they wrote:

Governors like Mr. Jindal should be worrying about how to end this recession while helping constituents feed and house their families — not about finding ways to revive tired election-year arguments about big spending versus small government.

On the other field of government money - the budget - Democrats are generally united behind President Obama’s plan. Rep. Jim Cooper (D-TN) for example, is a Blue Dog who tells the Times “the American people have been denied the truth for many years, they are willing to take their medicine if it leads to a strong country.”

Yesterday's News

The three races in New York City wrapped up yesterday with two clear victors and a likely victor in the third.

District 21 was taken by Julissa Ferreras, the chief-of-staff for former Council Member Hiram Monserrate. District 32 was won by up-and-coming NYC Republican Eric Ulrich who, at 29 years of age, will be the youngest person to sit on the City Council.

In District 49, Kenneth Mitchell has a 241 vote lead over the competition, though Deborah Rose has yet to concede.

In case you missed last night’s Presidential Address to Congress, we have included it here.



As well as the GOP response

Special Elections Today in New York City

Today WAYLA reports on local politics from New York City.

Today there are three City Council districts up for grabs due to vacancies following the General Election back in November. They are District 21 (North Queens), District 32 (South Queens), and District 49 (North Shore of Staten Island). Each are hotly contested races.

District 21

After the sitting council member, Hiram Monserrate, won his State Senate race in November, the field opened up for four Democrats coming from very different backgrounds and holding some very different ideas.

Among the candidates are George Dixon, a district leader of the Democratic Party and former community board member; Jose Giraldo, a businessman and community leader who immigrated to the U.S. when he was 19; Julissa Ferreras, the chief-of-staff to Monserrate; and Francisco Moya, a business director, public affairs director, and former aid in the State Legislature.

A big issue in this race is “who is best qualified?” and every candidate - except for Moya - has addressed the issue by claiming the most experience. They also disagree on another big issue in North Queens - overdevelopment.

Though she was seen as the leading candidate and has racked up the most endorsements, Ferreras has recently been criticized for mismanaging funds at Libre, a non-profit which she chaired. Despite Monserrate being the first Latino to hold the seat, three of the four contenders are Latinos this time around and some feel the Party might be trying to hold it as a Latino seat.

District 32

Five candidates are vying to replace Joseph Addabbo, who won a State Senate race in November. They include Geraldine Chapey, a professor at City University of New York, a Democratic district leader, and a non-profit director; Glenn DiResto, a recently retired NYPD lieutenant; Michael Ricatto, a businessman; Lew Simon, an activist, former candidate, and Democratic district leader; and Eric Ulrich, a Catholic Church fundraiser, former teacher and campaign worker, and a Republican district leader.

The personalities and stories behind each of the candidates is more telling of the race than the positions they take.

DiResto, for example, has touted a party line of “families first” and, as a result, was disqualified from the ballot because too close to the Working Families Party (a New York union party) and special elections are technically non-partisan.

Ulrich is only 23 and would be the youngest member to serve on the council. This charismatic young Republican is moderate and gives the New York Republican Party a good deal of optimism.

And then there is Ricatto, the President of his family’s business empire and a newcomer on the political scene. The driver of his campaign van - who had a suspended license as it was - hit and killed a nine-year-old boy last month. In addition to that challenge, he did not even live in the district until very recently - moving in specifically for the race. At a recent debate the crowd even shouted “carpetbagger” at him.

District 49

The number of candidates competing to represent this northern Staten Island seat has dwindled from nine to five in recent weeks. They are vying to replace Michael McMahon who won his Congressional race back in November.

The remaining five candidates are Tony Baker, a veteran, former schoolteacher, and reverend; Kenneth Mitchell, McMahon’s chief-of-staff while on the Council; Donald Pagano, an electrical contractor; Deborah Rose, a community advocate and secretary of Community Board No. 1; and Paul Saryian, a retired NYPD captain.

With the exception of Saryian, an independent, the candidates are all registered Democrats, where the Party has held this seat on the mostly-Republican island for more than 25 years. This district is also home to a great wave of immigrants and - compared to the rest of Staten Island - is quite diverse. Rose and Baker are both trying to become the first African-American to win the seat and Saryian is of Hispanic and Armenian descent.

The big issue in this race has been traffic congestion. Each candidate has addressed this issue in their own way to seem independent of the others. Rose, Mitchell and Saryian have proposed different light rail ideas. Rose and Pagano have also suggested increasing traffic on the Hudson ferry. Each candidate hopes that some of the federal stimulus money can cover these expenses.

What can we gather from these different races?

New York City is so big and diverse that it should be no surprise that these races seem so very distant from one another. In fact, with a population of over 8 million, the Big Apple is about the size of the average state - complete with its own array of issues and political values according to the different communities.

Come back tomorrow to see who won!

The Realities of Strict Campaign Finance Law

Today WAYLA reports on local politics from South Carolina.

According to a recent article in The Post and Courier - a Charleston, SC newspaper - lobbyists and elected officials from South Carolina owe the State Ethics Commission over $2.5 million.

Quite a few of them, in fact, owe the state hundreds of thousands of dollars.

How did they manage to run up such a large debt?

The answer is quite simple: they failed to accurately or sufficiently fill out campaign finance reports. This was especially easy for local races in which candidates did not think the law would be so strict for their elections.

One example in the article is a former Town Council member from Jonesville.

"Lucius Rice III, a former Jonesville Town Council member, owes more than $212,000 — and counting.

Rice first ran afoul of the commission when he failed to file a campaign disclosure form for the 2004 election and was fined $100. In 2006, the state hit him with a second fine for failing to file a statement describing his economic interests.

Because Rice has yet to address the original violations, his late penalties grow by $200 per day. The state has been garnishing Rice's employment wages for more than two years to the tune of about $10,000.

Rice said that after his job moved him to Charlotte, he never heard anything more from the state until it began to garnish his wages for what he thought was child support. 'It's ridiculous,' Rice said when The Post and Courier told him of his massive ethics commission fine. 'I served my community on council, and this is what I get? It's sad that they are doing this to someone out there trying to make a living.'

Rice finds it odd that the state couldn't locate him to notify him of the fines but seemed to have no trouble finding his paycheck to garnish his wages.

… Herbert R. Hayden Jr., executive director of the commission … said there's no excuse for failing to file the information. It's easy to do, particularly now that forms can be filled out online. 'It's no more difficult than filling out your checkbook register.'

At the same time, he said the fine totals in Rice's case and others have gotten out of hand. 'So many of those figures are totally unrealistic as far as ever collecting that money.'"

A few years ago, the State Legislature did pass a bill capping penalties at $5,000 but it was vetoed by Governor Mark Sanford.

A particularly harsh example is Richard Johnson, who served on the Eastover City Council from 2000 to 2006. He owes the state more than $430,000. Yet his only expenditure was a $50 registration fee for being placed on the ballot. As he told The Post and Courier, "I didn't have no campaign fund [sic]. This is a small town." Eastover has a population of 830 and a municipal budget of only $600,000.

Campaign finance law exists for a good reason - to stop the influence of special interests and the super-wealthy from essentially buying a government. But in practice there can be serious consequences for those who wouldn’t otherwise expect it.

Hopefully this knowledge of legal backlash should serve as a warning to prospective candidates and sitting elected officials: no matter what your office is, you must take campaign finance laws seriously.

Conservatives Push Back on Stimulus

It’s Friday, February 20, 2009. Here is what we’re looking at:

The National Republican Congressional Committee has launched a campaign against House Democrats (mostly freshmen) for supporting the stimulus package. It includes robo-calls against 11 Democratic Congresspersons and radio ads in 30 other Democratic districts.

The NRCC aren’t the only conservatives pushing back - the American Issues Project has started running the following television ad:



Is the push-back working?

A new CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll shows that President Obama’s approval rating has dropped about 10 points this month. Yet he still stands strong with 67% job approval. While the survey also suggests 60% of Americans support the stimulus, it is plausible that the conservative push-back has had an impact on Democrats.

The Story of Recovery

To all of our readers, this is what we're looking at today.

Enjoy.

Looking Back on a Hundred Posts…

WAYLA is proud to announce that today is our 100th post! We decided to take a look back at some of the things we’ve been looking at since we launched the blog over four months ago.

At first we brought you (what seemed like) day-to-day analysis on the race between Barack Obama and John McCain. We looked at polls, ads, and campaign tactics to determine the strength and smarts of each side.

After the election, we began our first series: Know Your Third Parties. This fun and informative string of posts introduced you to the Greens, Libertarians, Constitutionists, Communists, Nazis, Prohibitionists, Modern Whigs, and more.

Between the beginning of 2009 and the Inauguration on January 20th we asked a panel of political consultants and professionals - as well as an academic and a political observer - to give us their ideas on Why Obama Won Our panelists were:
.

• Kelly Fero - Democratic Strategist from Austin, TX
.
• Jason Rae - Superdelegate from Milwaukee, WI
• Arnold Shober - Professor of Campaigns and Elections in Appleton, WI
• Scott Simpson - Political Consultant in Washington, DC
• Derrick Shapley - a former Field Operative from Starkville, MS
• Sherwin Hughes - Political Strategist in Milwaukee
• Dan Weinberg - a Political Observer in Gary, IN

Lately we have been bringing you coverage of local politics as the nation holds spring elections. Places include Chicago, Virginia, Los Angeles, Louisiana, New York and others. We also conducted our first contest, "Can You Find Your Congressman?"

As we continue in the future, we want to know what you think we should be looking at! Leave a comment below to let us know!


What on WAYLA have you liked the most so far? "Know Your Third Parties", "Why Obama Won" or "Can You Find Your Congressman?" Tell us on our Facebook Page!

New Campaign Ads for the IL-5 Race

Today WAYLA Reports on local politics from Chicago.

The race to replace Rahm Emanuel in the House of Representatives has headed into the final few weeks before the March 3rd primary. The “leading candidates” for the Democrats are State Rep. John Fritchey, State Rep. Sara Feigenholtz, and Cook County Commissioner Mike Quigley.

However, several candidates that are not among the “leading” contenders have come out with campaign ads for television. Here are a few.

We have already seen Economist Charlie Wheelan under water, now he has another hokey spot to win over your heart.



Feigenholtz touts her legislative experience in her first ad.



And Physician Paul Bryar campaigns by jumping into a workingman’s car.




Can candidates like Wheelan and Bryar pull it off?

Television ads may be able to make up years of press coverage in the way of getting the voters to know you, but it takes a variety of media (and a generally well-rounded campaign) to win.

However, this should send a signal to Fritchey and Quigley that it may be time to do some ads of their own before it’s too late.

Your Economic Stimulus

It’s Saturday, February 14, 2009. Here is what we’re looking at:

The economic stimulus bill passed the Senate last night 60-38. The vote lasted several hours in order for Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) to fly back to Washington from his mother’s wake and cast the critical 60th vote.

President Barack Obama gives his weekly address and speaks about the stimulus package.



Politico interviews several economists on the outlook of the stimulus plan - despite GOP reservations this week, the experts expect it to be generally stimulating.

What exactly can you all find in the stimulus bill? The AP breaks it down.

Finally, a sign of the times: Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s childhood home has been sold after foreclosure.


Have a Happy Valentine's Day!

The New and Emboldened GOP

In its second time through the US House of Representatives, the economic stimulus bill - once again - passed without a single Republican vote.

Just a day before the GOP tried to embarrass President Obama in terms of bipartisanship on the stimulus package, Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH) - Obama’s pick for Secretary of Commerce - withdrew his nomination on the grounds of policy differences on the stimulus bill and conducting the 2010 Census.

In these new political stunts the Republican Party appears to be an emboldened force again on Capitol Hill. As Charles Mahtesian at Politico writes:

“the New Hampshire senator's surprise decision to remove himself from consideration as President Barack Obama’s commerce secretary Thursday has provided the GOP with a new rallying cry, and a new hero against a foe who just a few weeks ago seemed almost unassailable.

In a way, it’s all a testament to just how far the Republican Party have fallen; what passes for victory now is an embarrassing flip-flop by an admired GOP senator and the passage of a massive economic recovery bill that most Republicans on the Hill oppose bitterly.”

Does an emboldened GOP mean danger for Democrats?

Despite this unity against the new President, the Congressional Republicans are taking some serious risks pertaining to how they will be viewed by the public. Not only will the withdrawal make Gregg and the GOP look undesirable in New Hampshire in 2010, but the opposition to the stimulus plan banks on the hope that the plan fails.

As a recent Gallup poll shows, nearly 60% of Americans currently support the stimulus plan. Even 28% of Republicans support the stimulus, which is only striking because exactly 0% of House Republicans do. More importantly, 56% of independents support the stimulus - enough that Republicans should be concerned about appearing too far to the right.

So the GOP is not showing this stubbornness out of popular opinion - they are specifically going “all-in” at the poker table, waiting for the final card to be flipped. And because the ideas of contracyclical economics are pretty solid, the odds are stacked against them.

Will Redistricting Make Virginia More Competitive?

Today WAYLA reports on local politics from Virginia.

Last month, Virginia State Senator R. Creigh Deeds (D-Bath) introduced a bill to require a bipartisan commission to redraw the state’s districts after the 2010 US Census. The goal was to make redistricting “less political”, reduce gerrymandering, and make elections more competitive for incumbents.

Earlier this month, the State Senate approved the bill unanimously. Democratic Governor Tim Kaine likes the bill. Yet it had already been shot down by the House of Delegates in a 4 to 2 decision within a Privileges and Elections subcommittee.

In fact, this is the seventh time Deeds has introduced the bill and the third time it has passed in the State Senate, but it has never been approved by the House of Delegates subcommittee.

Why won’t the lower House approve?

Backdrop: With their second Democratic governor in a row, two Democratic US Senators, a Democratic Congressional Delegation, a new Democratically-controlled State Senate, and their electoral votes for President Obama, the Commonwealth is quickly turning blue. The last bastion of GOP power is in the House of Delegates.


To make incumbents vulnerable with redistricting would put the Republicans at serious risk of losing control - or at least edging their control - of the House of Delegates where they currently hold an eight-delegate lead.

To make matters worse for them, seven Republican delegates have announced they are retiring or running for higher office. The blog Virginia Political Wire also expects as many as seven more Republicans to retire from the lower House. The Virginia GOP will not want to lose seats due to retiring incumbents north of Richmond.

In fact, this is not at all surprising. It is very typical for redistricting to protect incumbents when two state Houses are controlled by different parties. It is only when one party controls both Houses that redistricting makes elections competitive - and in such a way as to favor the party with power.

In Virginia, redistricting will favor incumbents of both parties - so long as the GOP can hold on to the House of Delegates after the 2009 elections. Other than that, races in the Commonwealth may become more competitive as the Democratic surge continues, but it will not be because of redistricting.

To see a great map of the House of Delegates districts - according to party - please visit http://www.bluecommonwealth.com/vahousemap

WAYLA Launches on Facebook!

“What Are You Looking At?” has joined the social networking world of Facebook with a new page!





Visit our page and become a fan today!

How Does Louisiana See Jindal?

Today WAYLA reports on local politics from Louisiana.

Governor Bobby Jindal (R-LA) has gained considerable attention in his state’s blogosphere lately concerning trips he has made across the country. The trips are often for fundraisers on behalf of other Republican politicians and conservative organizations.

Yet many are aware of his potential - and his ambitions - to be the Republican nominee for President in 2012.

From a recent editorial in the Daily Advertiser:

Jindal, who has been identified as "the rising star" in U.S. politics, seems to be rising higher as he travels around the country speaking at Republican gatherings. While the exposure will benefit him in whatever political path he takes, it will surely keep alive rumors of a run for the presidency.

He has also developed a mantra about the GOP: Republicans need to stop worrying about themselves and start worrying about the country by working with Democrats. He even went so far as to call the GOP the “party of corruption, big spending and earmarks”. Nonetheless, he has been strong to his ideology.

This all being said, the people of Louisiana have not been too enthusiastic about their governor starting a campaign for an election four years away.

Columnist John Maginnis writes:

Most people don't mind that we have a governor who is going places. But in these uncertain times, more are asking where, or if, he is leading us.

Fear is running through state government and universities among employees who don't know if they will have jobs when projected budget cuts are made. Hospital administrators and college presidents have been directed to prepare worst-to-best-case scenarios, though none of them are good…

…Jindal knows how to delegate and he needn't be holding his administrators' hands with every controversy. Yet there are moments when they should know that he has their back, because he says so publicly, even if some other people don't like it.

It doesn't matter how many weekends he spends out of state, or even that he's back at his desk first thing Monday morning. When it comes to leadership, it's not his perfect attendance that we need, but, rather, his presence.

Stephanie Grace, another columnist, writes “in political circles around here, ‘Where's Bobby’ is becoming a punchline.”

Some news services have introduced polls about the subject. Fifty-five percent of respondents to a Business Report survey say Gov. Bobby Jindal is spending too much time out of state at fundraising events. A similar poll at LANewslink.com showed over 73% feel he is gone too frequently.

While these internet polls are completely unscientific, it should be embarrassing to Jindal that these news services are asking the question at all.

We have reiterated the words of Tip O’Neill before: “all politics is local”. How many Americans do you think notice Jindal’s trips? Probably not too many. But one group of Americans certainly does - residents of Louisiana.

Many politicians unpopular in their own state find it difficult to win on the national level - just ask John Edwards. While Bobby Jindal may have ambitions to reach the peak of American government, he will find himself suffering backlash from his own constituency if he is not careful - and that would be the surest way to lose the prospect of Presidency.

"Can You Find Your Congressperson?" - The Winner

Thank you to everyone who participated in “Can You Find Your Congressperson”, our first contest at What Are You Looking At?

Here are some of your entries.

The first is from a source who wishes to remain anonymous:


Caption: Congressman Steve Kagen (D-WI-08) thinking “I hope nobody thinks this is my wife sleeping on my shoulder but I surely don’t mind her using her fur to keep me warm.”

Randy Koehn used the same picture and said “Kagen Keen for Cameras”

Peter Griffith examined what Senator Mike Enzi (R-WY) was thinking to himself:



Garrett FitzGerald - who lives in the 5th Congressional District in Illinois - currently is without a Congressman since Rahm Emanuel vacated it to be Obama’s Chief of Staff. But he did find this interesting glitch in the photo:


Caption: “I hope no one notices that the top of my head is gone!”

Finally, the winning picture and caption was from Henry Ventimilla:


Caption: Congressman Elija E. Cummings (D-MD-07) hoping that the representative in front of him would “clap, cheer, or something, instead of dancing (or at least what he thinks is dancing)”

For his victory, Henry will receive Team of Rivals by Doris Kearns-Goodwin, a critically acclaimed book on the Lincoln Administration.

Thank you again for all of your entries! Be sure to stay tuned to WAYLA for more contests in the future and - as always - in-depth news and analysis of campaign politics and the political community.

Last Day to Play “Can You Find Your Congressperson?”

Don’t forget, today is the final day we are accepting entries for “Can You Find Your Congressperson?” - the first ever WAYLA contest!

Again, here is our example of an entry:


Caption: Justice Antonin Scalia and his clothing from the late 1400s.

The winner - along with our favorites - will be announced here on Monday

Will the Wisconsin Supreme Court Race be Different in 2009?

Today WAYLA reports on local politics from Wisconsin.

In 2008, Justice Louis Butler of the Wisconsin State Supreme Court was ousted because of an expensive campaign against him. One year earlier, the same happened to another candidate that was typically seen as liberal.

But the money and the controversial ads it produced was not coming from the campaign budgets of their conservative opponents, but rather from Wisconsin Manufacturers and Commerce (WMC), the premier business lobby in Wisconsin.

In 2009, Chief Justice Shirley Abrahamson - who has voted with Butler against WMC in the past - will be facing the conservative Jefferson County Judge Randy Koschnick. The only difference this year: WMC has promised to stay out of the race - as has the Club for Growth and the Coalition for American families.

Why is WMC shifting gears?

There are several reasons that might explain WMC's actions. First is the image they built with the ads they ran against Butler. The commercials which described the African-American Associate Justice as "Loophole Louie" used techniques that were seen as racist. FactCheck.org even compared it to the notorious Willy Horton ad. As a result, several businesses left WMC and others declared they would not do business with any of its members.

The second reason is the changing tides of campaign finance reform in Wisconsin. Many in the state now contend that judicial races ought to be publicly financed as to not let special interest groups buy court seats. Recent action taken on campaign finance reform - the new ban on contributions to state legislators during the budget proceedings - suggests that the winds are heading in that direction.

Others are suggesting pragmatic reasons - perhaps they felt Abrahamson was too strong or Koschnick was too weak for them to take a chance with their money.

Should we be skeptical of WMC?

The recent campaign finance reports filed for state races in Wisconsin shows Abrahamson ahead of Koschnick financially with a 56-to-1 advantage. Koschnick has raised less than $15,000 - well short of the nearly $4 million spent in favor of Judge Michael Gableman (Butler's opponent) last year.

It is unlikely that he would raise so little without expecting some outside support.

A few potential support sources would be All Children Matter (a conservative interest group from Michigan that spent $900,000 against Wisconsin Democrats last year) and the Wisconsin Institute for Leadership.

It is not inconceivable that WMC could spend money through these groups or others for the Supreme Court race.

Abrahamson will face Koschnick on April 7th.

Going Solar with Un-Tied Shoelaces

Today WAYLA reports on local politics from Los Angeles.

On March 3rd residents of Los Angeles will use their Californian tradition of direct democracy to decide whether or not to boost solar energy for the city’s electricity consumption.


Measure B was originally proposed by the leadership of the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers (IBEW) Local 13 due to fears that the city’s green energy plan was not moving along effectively. Under the measure, the solar panels would be owned by the union, installed for residents who wished to participate, and the city would provide initial financing as well as rebate programs to help residents afford the technology.

Yet the proposal has come under fire in recent days because David Nahai - head of the Department of Water and Power - was unable to provide the City Council with cost estimates. He will be delivering his report later this month - about four months after he urged the Council to place the measure on the ballot.

“Because the plan changed repeatedly until Nov. 7, the day the council put it on the ballot, there was no way to prepare an accurate analysis, Nahai said. ‘A fiscal analysis would have been meaningless had we done it before’ the final draft was adopted, he added. ‘What would we have analyzed?’

“Nahai has already had to contend with an unfavorable, if preliminary, analysis of the solar plan prepared by P.A. Consulting, a firm that expressed doubts about the DWP's ability to install so many new solar panels and obtain $1.5 billion in federal tax credits to pay for them.”

In addition to the IBEW, Measure B is supported by a large number of groups including the LA League of Conservation Voters as well as Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa.

Some on the Council are afraid they voted for it too quickly. "For some reason, they decided to wait until the last minute to take it to the council, probably because they thought they could slip it through without the facts, which they did," said Councilman Greig Smith, who now opposes the measure.

And the Los Angeles Times has turned critical to the way the issue was handled. This is what they said in a recent editorial:

"We remain open to the idea that this ballot measure may be the best way to get [smart solar power as an integral part of the city's green energy strategy]. But the process seems designed to get voters to sign off on a plan without sufficient knowledge of it, and it is undermining a broader discussion of solar power in Los Angeles. There is a point at which process gets so bad that it outweighs substance, no matter how good that substance may be. We're rapidly approaching that point."

In fact, it is not too uncommon that proposals are put to voters without a detailed analysis of the plan (especially in California - see Proposition 13) but it is especially detrimental when it becomes an issue that can derail a campaign. The nature of this new criticism makes Measure B seem unfit to support - not because it is a bad proposal, but because of procedure.

In this way, the Mayor and the City Council pursued a boost to solar energy like a child running through a hallway without his shoelaces tied. We’ll have to wait and see whether or not he trips.

Blagojevich Goes Out as Classy as Blagojevich Could

It's Tuesday, February 3, 2009. Here's what we're looking at:

Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH) will be the next Secretary of Commerce after his Democratic governor, John Lynch, agreed to replace him with a Republican. The replacement will be the moderate Bonnie Newman. While Obama may have tried to squeeze out the filibuster, the Democrats have only two years before they can target the New Hampshire senate race.

The American Heart Association sounds pretty concerned about the stimulus bill, arguing that the language could dissuade schools from building athletic facilities. Thus, they say, the package might be encouraging childhood obesity.

Tom Daschle has withdrawn from his HHS nomination. Hours earlier, Obama's pick for Chief Performance Officer (a new position) withdrew because of her own tax problems.

The Department of Justice has rehired Leslie Hagen, an attorney removed during the Bush Administration due to rumors that she was a lesbian.

Finally, the New York Times gives a good account of Blagojevich spending his finals hours in office. He told employees "We should have been more selfish, not selfless" (yes you're reading that right), that his successor "has done a whole bunch as the lieutenant governor — taken all kinds of trips all over the world and trade missions — like he's got anything to do with anything as lieutenant governor" and that he always thinks "creatively", saying "I don't give up".

Short of Cash in South Carolina

Today WAYLA reports on local politics from South Carolina.

The hard economic times facing the nation are especially hard in South Carolina, where the recession has hit yet another industry - campaign politics.

According to an article in The State yesterday, campaigns and fundraising consultants throughout South Carolina are finding it especially difficult to raise money in the current economic environment. It may even make the campaign timelines there shorter.

Techniques such as small frequent donations and payment plans aren't working. Many frequent contributors are still tapped out from the last election cycle, and the recession is not helping them regenerate.

In part, the Palmetto State is getting hit by the recession harder than most places. South Carolina now has the third highest unemployment rate in the country at 9.5% - the national rate is 7.2%. State budget difficulties convinced the State Senate to work only once a week this week in order to "cut back" as they claim.

Yet this is particularly scary for those of us who work in campaign politics - for we have always felt this was a safe industry given that politics doesn't stop with a recession. Perhaps South Carolina is only the first to see such a trend. After all, President Obama has said it will get worse before it gets better.

In other unfortunate news (for those of us in the North) the Groundhog did see his shadow today - which means six more weeks of winter. Nonetheless, happy Groundhog Day.