Looking Back at the Exit Polls

To better understand the new American electorate, we decided to take a day to look back at the 2008 Presidential Election and provide some demographical analysis. Our source is the 2008 Post-Election Analysis provided by the Glover Park Group.

What Do the Exit Polls Tell Us?

The first and most important bit of information was party identification.

Party ID	% of Electorate	Obama	McCain
Dem	39%	89%	10%
GOP	32%	9%	90%
Ind	29%	52%	44%

There are two significant pieces here. First, the independents – nearly 30% of the electorate – went overwhelmingly for Obama. Second, far more voters identified themselves as Democrats.

Compare this to 2004, where the electorate was split almost evenly between both parties (around 38% each). This doesn't mean that the Democrats were far more approved of. It does mean that either the Republicans were so unpopular that previous GOP voters identified themselves as independents this year, or that Republicans stayed home.

Another critical point was the extent that Obama carried demographics typically seen as Democratic, but waned in recent years. This is primarily young voters and minority voters.

Voters under 30-years-old made up about 18% of the electorate and carried Obama by 66% - compare that to 2004 where the same voters supported Kerry by 55%.

Black voters made up 13% of the electorate – the highest in history – and supported Obama with 95% of their vote, up 6% from 2004. Hispanics, who made up 9% of the electorate – backed Obama by 67%, up nearly 10% from four years ago. Other minority groups supported Obama with about 64% of the vote.

White voters made up only 74% of the electorate (compared to 77% in 2004 and 81% in 2000). While they supported McCain by a 55%-43% margin, it was a small improvement for Obama compared to Kerry's performance four years ago.

But beyond the demographical surprises, much of the race came down to the weak state of the nation.

The biggest factor on this subject – not surprisingly – was President Bush. Obama won substantially among voters that disapprove of Bush (the vast majority of the electorate).

Bush Approval	% of Electorate	Obama	McCain
Approve	27%	10%	89%
Disapprove	71%	67%	31%

And while voters were split on the question of whether McCain would take the country in a new direction, it was clear that even his supporters hoped he would.

McCain will…	% of Electorate	Obama	McCain
Cont. Bush policies	48%	90%	8%
Take U.S. in a new direction	48%	13%	85%

Not surprisingly, the #1 quality that voters cared about in the candidates was the capacity to bring needed change. And Obama won those voters in huge proportions.

Candidate Quality	% of the Electorate	Obama	McCain
Can bring about change	34%	89%	9%
Shares my values	30%	32%	65%
Has right experience	20%	6%	93%
Cares about people like me	12%	74%	24%

While it is no surprise that Obama failed to win (or even perform reasonably well) on the experience issue, it simply was not the issue of 2008. "Values" was also a low point for Obama, as Evangelical voters continued to support the GOP.

But his performance in the "cares about people like me" criteria was outstanding. Not only did it demonstrate Obama's ability to connect with the more non-political voters, but it demonstrates the Republican Party's poor image of helping the rich and special interests. The GOP will have to work hard over the coming years to rebrand their image so it appeals to such voters.

The biggest political issue of the year was, of course, the economy, and Obama won on that issue by a similar margin to his overall performance.

#1 Issue	% of Electorate	Obama	McCain
The economy	63%	53%	44%
Iraq War	10%	59%	39%
Terrorism	9%	13%	86%
Health Care	9%	73%	26%
Energy	7%	50%	46%

Obama won on almost all of the issues, with sizable margins. But there is no question that the economy – and how the Bush Administration has handled it – was the biggest concern. It was significantly more important than in 1992 ("it's the economy, stupid") when only 43% of the voters identified the economy as their #1 concern.

Surprisingly – however – Obama substantially carried voters that were optimistic that the economy would get better. The electorate believed the economy would get better by a 47%-23% margin, with Obama carrying 61% of the optimistic voters.

Finally, there was the importance of how well the campaigns were run. It is conceivable that Obama's success was directly linked to the hard work of his staff.

Voter Contact	% of Electorate	Obama	McCain
Contacted by Obama only	13%	80%	19%
Contacted by McCain only	6%	17%	82%
Contacted by both campaigns	13%	47%	51%
Contacted by neither campaign	66%	50%	48%

While both campaign managed high success with the voters they contacted, the Obama campaign was able to make 37% more voter contact than the McCain campaign.

The McCain campaign and the GOP – which had significantly fewer resources to begin with – waited to dump their cash into the race at the last minute on mailers and TV spots. But the chunk of the electorate that decides at the last minute almost always splits their votes 50-50. This year was no different.

Decision made…	% of Electorate	Obama	McCain
In last 3 days	7%	49%	48%
Anytime earlier	91%	53%	46%

This demonstrates not only the importance of early voter contact (and plenty of it) but it also demonstrates the lack of foresight and fundamental understanding of voters on the part of the McCain campaign.

The issues and hope for change might have been significant, but one cannot understate the significance of these last findings.

What Don't the Exit Polls Tell Us?

Unfortunately, the exit polls do not alone hold the keys to understanding this election. The most important reason was the large number of early and absentee voters this year. Nearly one in every four votes was cast early.

While exit polls do try to account for early and absentee voting, they are typically not very successful.

Another problem on Election Day is when the polls are taken – they are typically taken long before polling stations close, and miss large demographical proportions of the electorate. As a result, the exit polls may show us a very different view of what actually happens.

In fact, exit polls are not very scientific in many ways. You can read more from Exit Poll FAQs here, or a "Top Ten" summary by Nate Silver here.

But for what they're worth, the exit polls we've examined today have given us further insight into why Barack Obama won, and why the American electorate decided to chose him.