New History Was Made - But Our Old History Lingers On

In his recent editorial in the Miami Herald, African-American columnist Leonard Pitts writes "we shall overcome." But it was not a declaration referring to his race, but rather to the millions of LGBT Americans discriminated against nationally.

Pitts wrote this column in regard to the recent outcomes of the gay marriage referenda in Florida, California, and Arizona. He points out that although black voters came out in record numbers to elect Barack Obama the first African-American President, they also supported a ban on gay marriage by a 2 to 1 margin.

Pitts acknowledges that the civil rights movement of the 1950s and 1960s in indeed different from the gay rights movement today, but writes:

"…that's not the same as saying blacks and gays have nothing in common. On the contrary, gay people, like black people, know what it's like to be left out, lied about, scapegoated, discriminated against, held up, beat down, denied a job, a loan or a life. And, too, they know how it feels to sit there and watch other people vote upon your very humanity, just as if those other people had a right. So beg pardon, but black people should know better. I feel the same when Jews are racist, or gays anti-Semitic. Those who bear scars from intolerance should be the last to practice it."

Although the civil rights movement is not over, and the chains of discrimination have not been fully lifted from the black community, a great deal of progress has been made over the past half century. Progress is equally likely - says Pitts - to come to the LGBT community as well.

Gay marriage is likely to become more accepted in the future, the Employee Non-Discrimination Act is likely to pass in the new Congress and signed by President Obama, and hate crime legislation is likely to be extended to LGBT individuals as well.

Yet, hate crimes have been part of the American judicial system for some time, and the violence still continues - as demonstrated by this disturbing video sent to us today.

Perhaps the saddest part of the story is how it is unsurprising. The anti-immigrant rhetoric mentioned by Ruben Navarrette is an obvious fuel for the fire. It is unsurprising because we've seen this movie before. As Bob Dylan wrote about the murder of Medgar Evers:

"A South politician preaches to the poor white man / "You got more than the blacks, don't complain / You're better than them / You been born with white skin," they explain / And the Negro's name / Is used it is plain / For the politician's gain / As he rises to fame / And the poor white remains / On the caboose of the train…

… He's taught in his school / From the start by the rule / That the laws are with him / To protect his white skin / To keep up his hate / So he never thinks straight…

… And he's taught how to walk in a pack / Shoot in the back / With his fist in a clinch / To hang and to lynch / To hide 'neath the hood / To kill with no pain / Like a dog on a chain…"

Dylan wrote "Only a Pawn in Their Game" over forty years ago - but today the words are still a reality to families like the Luceros. And the LGBT community, like the Latino community, has become a direct target of conservative politicians in recent years.

So even as the United States made history by electing its first black President, the old history of hate and discrimination sadly continues - and in new forms.

Or as Pitts writes, "Sometimes progress carries an asterisk."

The Battle for Congress Continues

Alaska

In Alaska, the Senate race between long-time Republican incumbent and convicted felon Ted Stevens and Democratic Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich rests on approximately 90,000 uncounted absentee ballots (or 30% of the electorate). Stevens currently leads by over 3,000 votes, but Begich is wisely waiting to see the results of the uncounted ballots.

The statewide House race in the Alaska is also in question as a result of the 90,000 ballots. Republican incumbent Don Young - who has had his fair share of troubles with corruption issues - leads Democrat Ethan Berkowitz by nearly 17,000 votes. Although the election could be overturned by these ballots, it is unlikely to see a scenario in which Berkowitz can win.

California

The extremely competitive Congressional race in California's 4^th District is down to a recount. As of Sunday night, Republican State Sen. Tom McClintock led Democratic challenger and former Air Force Lieutenant Colonel Charlie Brown by 889 votes.

By yesterday afternoon, McClintock's lead grew to 1,192 votes (or from half a percent to two-thirds of a percent) after the recount in Roseville County was completed. 40,000 ballots are still to be recounted, and both campaigns have begun new fundraising efforts to pay for election lawyers.

In an email to supporters, McClintock said "this is still too close to call, but I'd rather be me than the other guy." In an email to Brown supporters, campaign manager Todd Stenhouse said that the votes yet to be recounted are in counties which did well for Brown, who originally ran for the seat against an incumbent in 2006 against the retiring GOP Rep. John Doolittle.

Georgia

In Georgia, Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss faces a runoff with Democrat Jim Martin. Chambliss has recruited this year's GOP Presidential nominee, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) to stump with him in Cobb County tomorrow. Former presidential candidate and governor Mike Huckabee (R-AR) will be stumping for him as well, possibly on Sunday. Chambliss is also reported to have invited Mitt Romney (R-MA) and Governor Sarah Palin (R-AK), though neither have confirmed.

While it is unlikely that Martin will be able to bring President-Elect Barack Obama out to Georgia, Martin is receiving GOTV help from now unemployed Obama staffers in the Peach State. This will be immensely important for him in order to bring back the large

African-American demographic that voted in record numbers on November 4^th - but mostly because Obama was on the ballot.

According to Martin "Those ground troops are more important than big-name politicians for getting voters back to the polls."

Illinois

Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin was hardly at risk for his seat this year, but new speculations are being raised about the replacement for his colleague - the junior Senator from Illinois - Barack Obama.

Democratic Governor Rod Blagojevich is facing pressure from African-American groups to choose a black successor - currently, Obama is the only African-American in the Senate. The most likely contender that comes to mind is Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr., a national co-chair of the Obama campaign. But Jackson has a long and well-known feud with Mayor Richard Daley of Chicago, and a lesser known antithesis with Blagojevich.

The other prominent names that are being thrown out there (both Democratic) are Tammy Duckworth (the Iraq War veteran who lost her legs and ran for Congress in 2006) and Emil Jones (the73-year-old black State Senate President).

But as Josh Kraushaar of Politico points out, Blagojevich is an extremely unpopular governor, and an appointment from him could be a "kiss of death."

Louisiana

One competitive House race in Louisiana will also come down to a runoff election on December 6^th. In the 4^th Congressional District, Democratic Caddo DA Paul Carmouche faces the former Republican Webster Coroner Josh Fleming, to replace the retiring GOP Rep. Jim McCrery.

According to Politico.com, Carmouche has conducted a new internal poll which shows the District Attorney is up by ten points. The Democrats are already running an ad for the runoff, attacking Fleming for supporting a large national sales tax and privatizing Social Security. The NRCC says they will be running ads soon too.

Maryland

The Baltimore Sun reported last night that GOP State Sen. Andy Harris of Baltimore County has conceded defeat to Democratic State Attorney Frank Kratovil. He appears to lead Harris by about .6% in this hotly contested race in a conservative district.

According to Political Scientist Matthew Grenson of Johns Hopkins University, the national Democratic successes this year played a role, as well as the Libertarian candidate who managed about 2.5% of the vote.

Minnesota

The most anticipated recount in the nation is the Minnesota Senate race between GOP incumbent Norm Coleman and the Democratic former comedian, Al Franken. Since Election Day, Coleman's lead over Franken has dropped from 725 votes to just 221.

Most surprisingly, nearly all of those new Franken votes came from only three precincts. The new numbers are a result of correcting typos made by "exhausted county officials" according to the Minneapolis Star Tribune. The recount will begin on November 19^th.

And if this race wasn't tense enough, Democratic Secretary of State Mark Ritchie said on MSNBC today of the Coleman campaign "Their goal is to win at any price."

Ohio

In Ohio's 15^th Congressional District, GOP State Senator Steve Stivers leads Democratic Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy by the closest margin of all House races nationally - 149 votes (according to Congressional Quarterly).

As of now there are more than 20,000 ballots to be counted in Franklin County. If the margin is within half a percent when the official results are released November 25^th, there will be an automatic recount. Obviously, we will have to follow this race closely.

Virginia

The 5^th Congressional District race in Virginia is looking good for the Democrats. Tom Perriello, a faith-based initiative organizer and Democrat won his race with a 407 vote lead over GOP incumbent Rep. Virgil Goode, according to the State Board of Elections.

But Goode is hanging on, claiming that roughly 20% of the precincts in the district reported irregularities. "We will continue to fight to make sure that every single legitimate vote in the Fifth District is accurately counted and reported," he said. The Goode campaign is sure to demand a recount.

Stay tuned to WAYLA where we continue to update the House and Senate spreads daily - until the last seat is finalized.

More on Realignment and the Scrambling GOP

Conservative columnist David Brooks wrote a good summary of the battle within the GOP in today's edition of the New York Times.

According to Brooks, there are currently two camps within the Republican Party - the "Traditionalists" and the "Reformists." Brooks says the Traditionalists are the typical right-wing hard-liners including Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, the Club for Growth, the Federalist Society, Americans for Tax Reform, and the Family Research Council.

The Traditionalists believe that the reason for recent GOP defeats is because the Party has not been conservative enough. They blame big-government policies of George W. Bush and East Coast conservatives who are now losing their offices for a reason. They argue for all of the typical neo-conservative points of view.

The Reformists, on the other hand, believe that the Republican Party has to modernize because the conservative hard-liners are making Americans become disillusioned with the highly ideological GOP. They want to address middle-class economic anxiety and global warming rather than abortion, gay marriage, and consistent calls for tax cuts as the only means to solve the nation's problems. They want the new GOP to be similarly modeled after what David Cameron is doing with the Tories in the UK.

But despite the fact that the Reformists might have the better argument as to where to take the Republican Party, the Traditionalists will have the upper-hand for some time.

"[First] Congressional Republicans are predominantly Traditionalists. Republicans from the coasts and the upper Midwest are largely gone. Among the remaining members, the popular view is that Republicans have been losing because they haven't been conservative enough.

Second, Traditionalists have the institutions. Over the past 40 years, the Conservative Old Guard has built up a movement of activist groups, donor networks, think tanks and publicity arms. The reformists, on the other hand, have no institutions.

There is not yet an effective Republican Leadership Council to nurture modernizing conservative ideas. There is no moderate Club for Growth, supporting centrist Republicans. The Public Interest, which used to publish an array of public policy ideas, has closed. Reformist Republican donors don't seem to exist. Any publication or think tank that headed in an explicitly reformist direction would be pummeled by its financial backers. National candidates who begin with reformist records — Giuliani, Romney or McCain — immediately tack right to be acceptable to the power base.

Finally, Traditionalists own the conservative mythology. Members of the conservative Old Guard see themselves as members of a small, heroic movement marching bravely from the Heartland into belly of the liberal elite. In this narrative, anybody who deviates toward the center, who departs from established doctrine, is a coward, and a sellout."

Brooks finishes by noting that the GOP will probably move further to the right in coming years. But the trend of realignment will hold true. As issues change and the Reformists - with their finger on the pulse of the issues - grow in number, the cycle will swing the Republicans back from a hard-right minority status into a new age of competition with the Democrats or even to a clear majority.

Democrats Speculate Dean's Successor

Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean will be stepping down from his post in January. The former Vermont Governor and 2004 Presidential Candidate who helped reignite the Democratic Party has always said he would only serve one term.

But the Huffington Post reported today that there may be other reasons for his departure.

Despite his promise to not seek re-election at the DNC, many Democrats thought he would do well to stay on given the recent successes he brought to the party. But as President, Barack Obama will be the new leader of the Democratic Party and his choice for a new Chair will almost certainly be approved by the DNC when they hold the upcoming elections. And Obama's new Chief of Staff, Rahm Emanuel, is known to have been at odds with Dean.

In 2006, Emanuel, then Chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the architect of the Democratic takeover of the House, criticized Dean within the party ranks for the 50-State-Strategy, which Emanuel felt was wasting resources on unwinnable races.

While Emanuel was certainly not the only critic of the 50-State-Strategy, most Democrats have come to see the operation as a success. It was perhaps the riskiest of Dean's successful (and often revolutionary) accomplishments, including the Neighborhood Leadership Program and the long overdue advances to the party's Voter File technology.

According to the article, the DNC will likely return to the leadership style they used in the 1990s, with a sort-of honorary Chair and an "Operational Chair" who will deal with the day-to-day priorities of the party. The article also lists Senator Claire McCaskill (D-MO) as a possible Chair and Steve Hildebrand, Obama's Deputy Campaign Manager, as the Operational Chair.

Dean is reported to have told a party operative that he will seek a promise from his successor to preserve the current DNC model - including the 50-State-Strategy - which seems likely to happen given its success.

As for Dean's future, there has been talk of him earning a position in the Obama Administration, but others say his wife will not be willing to give up her medical practice to move to Washington.

Republican Politicians: "When are the next elections?"

It's Sunday, November 09, 2008. Here is what we're looking at.

GOP leaders deny ambitions for Presidential bids in 2012. But former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal already plan to visit Iowa before the year is out.

The recounts in Minnesota are getting closer. Senator Norm Coleman is trying to use the courts to stop as few as 32 previously uncounted absentee ballots from being included in the recount. Brace for another Florida.

Future White House Chief of Staff, Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-IL) speaks with Bob Schieffer on Face the Nation.

Keeping the Public Engaged

Now that the Presidential campaign has been over for four days, many major players are taking time to relax. Senator John McCain told an aide "I got nine racks of ribs, and I will be cooking them up," and President-Elect Barack Obama started wearing his weekend clothing.

The Press, however, seems to be having more difficulty accepting an end to the race. After all, they have known nothing but following the Presidential campaign for the past two years.

For reporters, the hardest part about the race being over was the end of reporting on Governor Sarah Palin. Lucky for the ones at Newsweek, former McCain campaign aides were all too happy to dish out the darkest secrets now that their candidates lost. Fox News quickly picked up the story.

Others, such as Politico, decided to devote a special webpage to reporting on the days between the Election and Inauguration.

Even the Obama staff has responded to the decrease in Obama-related internet traffic by introducing www.Change.gov, the official website of the Office of the President-Elect. Were you unaware that there was an official office of the President-Elect too?

Of course, if and when the media stops reporting on electoral politics, what will you be looking at then? Better yet, what will we be looking at?

(HINT: You'll have to keep coming back to find out)

Reshaping the Republican Identity

Since the nation-wide electoral defeats Tuesday night, the GOP has been discussing strategy for how to save their party in light of what appears to be realignment.

This comes as former Bush speechwriter David Frum writes extensively on the fall of the GOP in 2008 and how the Republicans can make a comeback.

Current divisions are growing tense within the Republican Party between the populist Evangelicals and the anti-tax neo-conservatives that better characterize intellectual libertarians than President Bush.

The best case study of this tension is Governor Sarah Palin, who continued to embolden the values voters and other populist Republicans, but seriously turned-off the elite neo-cons who were the center of Reagan's GOP.

Peggy Noonan, Christopher Buckley, Kathleen Parker, David Brooks, and Thomas Friedman all wrote negatively of the "Wasilla hillbilly" - including remarkable criticisms such as "she is out of her league" (Parker), "a mark against John McCain, against his judgment and idealism" (Noonan), and "she represents a fatal cancer to the Republican Party" (Brooks).

Our personal favorite may be "If BS were currency, Palin could bail out Wall Street herself" (Parker again).

Even former Reagan Chief of Staff, Ken Duberstein, decided to endorse Obama because of Governor Palin.

Still today, as President-Elect Obama begins his transition to the White House, rumors about Palin continue to haunt the GOP.

On the issues, the Republican Party is having difficulty framing winning arguments on trickle-down economics, climate change, and health care reform. The key issues that Lee Atwater used to bolt the Republicans for over twenty years were welfare and crime, but today they have little resonance.

Demographically, Republicans are scared of their dwindling support among Latinos and other groups. House Minority Leader John Boehner has argued for the party to redirect efforts to win back voters in the Northeast and Great Lakes states.

Republicans may even have to take a cue from the UK Conservative leader, David Cameron, who has had to move his party away from the neo-conservative movement promoted by Thatcher and closer to the middle.

But no matter what the strategy is, the key will be winning moderates that are disillusioned with the populist Evangelical movement without offending their base.

There is even confusion as to how to handle an Obama presidency - over whether they should work with the President so to not appear hyper-partisan, or to criticize him at every move in order to win what battles they can.

Already, a memo has been circulating Washington criticizing Obama's pick of Rep. Rahm Emmanuel (D-IL) for Chief of Staff, and pointing out Iranian President Ahmadinejad's congratulations to Obama. At the same time, Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) applauded the Emmanuel pick, and Republican strategist Craig Shirley criticized the GOP for only knowing how to attack a political foe.

No matter what path the Republicans take now, it seems they will be unable to keep their current coalition together - let alone bring in enough moderates to win some elections - for some time.

Why 2008 is as Historic as They Say

On Tuesday, Barack Obama won eight more states than Al Gore did in 2000, and nine more than John Kerry in 2004. Yet he could not pick up Montana, North Dakota, Georgia, or Missouri, which newly became toss-up states this year.

But something happened in these states.

In fact, something happened across the entire country. According to a map in today's edition of the New York Times, the vast majority of counties nation wide saw dramatic increases in Democratic performance. Even in Utah, the most Republican state in the nation, not a single county showed more support for the Republican ticket than it did four years ago. Salt Lake City, for example, carried McCain by only 2,000 votes, compared to 80,000 for Bush in 2004.

The same was true in Indiana, which narrowly slid into the Obama column. Even in reliably Republican, rural counties, there was as much as a 20% increase in performance for the Democratic nominee.

A Brilliant Campaign

No one can deny that this was, in part, due to the brilliant and revolutionary campaign put together by David Plouffe and David Axelrod.

Conventional wisdom in campaign politics is, and has long been, "Fifty-Percent Plus One", and Karl Rove had been able to get as close to that number as possible in 2000 and 2004. The old "divide-and-conquer" negativity tactics of Lee Atwater were combined with new micro-targeting techniques to deliver moderate voters to George W. Bush while emboldening his evangelical base.

There is no question about it, Rovian political strategy delivered Bush his wins in 2000 and 2004 - but it was not a sustainable strategy for the Republican Party. Not only have Americans become desensitized to negative ads and micro-targeted contact with Republican operatives, they are tired of being pitted against one another.

So Plouffe and Axelrod followed the lead of Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean and employed the now-famous 50 State Strategy, opening offices in every state, including the Republican states of Montana, Utah, and Georgia, among others.

Democrats in these states, who had never seen a Democratic campaign before, eagerly volunteered to get out the word about the junior Senator from Illinois. They registered new voters and convinced independents and moderate Republicans to support the candidate of change.

They built upon the successes of other Democratic campaigns in states like New Mexico, Colorado, and Virginia, rather than ignoring these places to try to guarantee a win in more populated states such as Florida and Ohio.

Most importantly - while they failed to win all of these Republican states - they set up the infrastructure and volunteer bases for future Democratic candidates. As the blue shift continues, local Democratic parties and activists will be ready to capitalize on it. While "Fifty-Percent Plus One" might give you a victory for any particular election, it does not create the atmosphere for a party legacy.

A Brilliant Candidate

And then there was Barack Obama. His speeches and his ground game touched millions of voters who had always been cynical towards the electoral process. But he was not only inspirational – he was inclusive.

Part of it was that he had to be. Early on, he needed to win over white Democrats in Iowa to win the caucuses. When he won, he convinced the strong African-American base of the party that a black candidate – or at least this black candidate – was viable in the eyes of the majority.

Yet it did not end there. Throughout the entirety of his candidacy, his message was that of a united nation – inseparable by the divisions of class, religion, and race. There was no populist America or elitist America; no Christian America or non-Christian America; no black America or white America. From the very beginning, in his introduction to the country four years ago at the Democratic National Convention, he made his mantra clear: "There's not a liberal America and a conservative America, there's the United States of America."

Even after the decision was made, the votes were tallied, and he was clearly the President-elect of the country, the message continued. "We rise and fall as one people…to those Americans whose support I have yet to earn: I may not have won your vote tonight, but I hear your voices, I need your help, and I will be your President too."

Unlike the claims made by Bush after he won 51% for his second term, it was clear that Obama did not believe his victory was a mandate. He was well aware that nearly half of the country did not trust him, but he made clear he wanted to work with them, and listen to them "especially when [they] disagree".

And with this mantra he has kept throughout the past four years – with only the possible exception of a few words at a fundraiser in San Francisco – he touched the hearts and minds of people in Montana, Indiana, North Carolina, and even Utah.

Realignment

But a brilliant campaign and a brilliant candidate were not the only factors towards this victory. Regardless of whether or not the Obama campaign had succeeded in the primaries – or even began at all two years ago – the word of this election would still have been "change".

Throughout history, political realignment has been fairly consistent – a 25-35 year phenomenon in which a moment of historical significance brings people to shift their political leanings to one party, and pass the loyalty down to their children. But as time goes by, demographics change and loyalty fades, until a new moment of historical significance that creates new party loyalties.

It happened in 1860 when the new Republican Party rose to support abolition, free land, and tariff policies that were at odds with the South, creating a long period of Southern hate for the GOP.

It happened in 1896 when Democrat William Jennings Bryan evoked populist approval for his tirade against the Gold Standard, putting off the more populated Northeast, and giving way to firm Republican control of the country for the next 32 years.

It happened in 1932 when Roosevelt introduced his New Deal policies to relieve the country in the wake of the Great Depression, granting large Democratic majorities nationally.

It happened between the late 1960s and 1980 when FDR's coalition of Democratic supporters was split by the Civil Rights movement and the Vietnam War – and when Ronald Reagan brought the GOP into the neo-conservative movement.

Finally, the results of neo-conservative ideology and its populist Evangelical twist have created a new realignment.

Realignment Today

Nationally, Americans are more than ready for an end to the Bush Era. But there are other changes happening regionally as well.

Let's begin in the West, where Hispanic populations have boomed in states like Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado. Between the surge of Latino voters and other new voters going west for new jobs, Obama won big because Republicans were doomed.

From the New York Times:
The broader problem here was Republican infighting — over immigration, small government versus large government, and socially conservative issues," said David F. Damore, a professor of political science at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.

Between the libertarian tradition of the West – currently at a crossroads with the Evangelicals in the GOP – and the strong Republican rhetoric against illegal immigration, Republican candidates failed in Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada. Not only did Obama win these states, the Udall cousins won Senate seats in Colorado and New Mexico, and Democrats were elected in House races across the southwest.

In Montana, the folksy Democratic Governor Brian Schweitzer easily won his re-election. In Idaho, Democrat Walt Minnick was elected to Congress. Even in Wyoming, the home state of Vice President Dick Cheney, the Democrats nearly picked up a statewide seat.

On the opposite side of the country – the northeast – the GOP was all but eliminated. Christopher Shays (R-CT), the long-time incumbent and last Republican House member from New England lost his re-election to Jim Himes, a politically unknown challenger. Senator John Sununu (R-NH) lost his re-election to former Governor Jeanne Shaheen.

Their ties to Bush rocked the incumbents, but there was something else happening. After years of being labeled elitist, anti-American, not part of "real" America, Northeasterners were not going to tolerate the Republican Party anymore. The "Fifty-Percent Plus One" strategy that pitted the populists and Evangelicals of the country against the Northeast had come back to bite the GOP.

Then there are the Great Lakes states, which early on appeared to be the central front in the war for the White House. As the financial crisis got worse and worse, state after state became out of reach for John McCain.

He completely pulled out of Michigan, the RNC stopped their ad-buys in Wisconsin, and even Republican Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann seemed at risk in Minnesota – not to mention Senator Norm Coleman. Eventually, Ohio was declared "leaning Obama" and the so-often Republican state of Indiana was competitive.

But the one reliable region for the GOP – where Rove had built the base – was no longer safe. This is, of course, the South.

While states like Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee, and Louisiana (thanks to the demographic realignment of Hurricane Katrina) supported McCain in greater numbers than Bush, the Bible Belt was seriously competitive. Obama won in the former Confederate states of Virginia and North Carolina. Senator Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) could not garner the 50% needed to avoid a run-off, and Senator Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) was handedly defeated. Even Senator Wicker was at some risk in Mississippi.

But these gains for Democrats are not new, or a coincidence. They are part of a realignment that began in 2006.

The Iraq War, corruption scandals, and budget deficits left the competence of Republicans in question and Democrats were elected to enough seats to take back both the House of Representatives and the Senate.

Meanwhile, Democrats picked-up State Legislatures and statewide administrative offices nationally.

Perhaps the best example is Virginia where Governor (now Senator-elect) Mark Warner (D-VA) created jobs for southern Virginians and metropolitan liberals spilled into the DC suburbs. As a result, the Democratic Party grew a base in Virginia to elect Governor Tim Kaine and Senator Jim Webb.

Or in Rhode Island, where moderate Republican Senator Lincoln Chaffe was defeated for no other reason than the party he belonged to.

Or even Colorado, or Ohio, which had similar stories that year.

Conclusion

It is not certain that Obama could have done this without his Plouffe and Axelrod – or whether the three of them could have done it at all four years ago.

But this much does appear to be true: Barack Obama was the right candidate with the right campaign at exactly the right time.

What We've Done - Sherwin Hughes, Political Strategist, Milwaukee, WI

As an African American man living in the United States, it is very easy to grow increasingly cynical of a country that is often increasingly suspect of you.

This great electoral victory is not just a triumph for African American’s; it is a true national triumph in which we all shall share collectively. Is this Black history? Yes. Is this American history? Absolutely.

An Electoral College landslide and a decisive accumulation of popular votes, equate to a mandate so strong it shall re-write the pages of campaign strategy for the next 100 years.

When placed within the context of American history, this event assumes an even deeper significance. Every bead of sweat dripping from the very brows of tireless marchers for justice, every tear cried and opportunity lost as a result of De facto and De jure, every drop of blood shed during the struggle manifested itself perfectly on the evening of November 4^th, 2008. A civil rights movement executed. A dream no longer deferred.

President-elect Barack Hussein Obama has ignited the American spirit in ways not seen in a generation. 21 months ago, I could not fathom that the “skinny kid with a funny name” could oust the Clintons, build a swollen grassroots organization, and turn a bitterly divided nation into a place that has reignited my pride. We can now focus on being great once again. It is for that in which I am most thankful.

Make no mistake; Senator John McCain is a good man. Senator John McCain is an American hero. As evident by his very eloquent concession, he shall continue to be a servant of this nation. I wish he, nor his republican colleagues, no ill will. However, I remain ever cautious. For the Republican Party is returning to the proverbial drawing board and will eventually reinvent and rebuild.

Politics aside, this campaign was far more. It kindled our most intrinsic values of hope, optimism.

As I celebrated with the best of them into the early morning of November 5^th, I saw things that rocked my very core. Streets flooded with jubilant souls, horns honking, banners waving, and an indiscriminant expression of human love. This campaign did something to us – something absolutely divine.

Politics included, this campaign awoke the better angels of the American nature, and as a result, bent the seemingly fixed lines that characterized the political map of red and blue states.

Even though most of us, in the generation of X, have never bore witness to such a monumental testament of the American will for change, the work is not done.

It is the duty of every American, regardless of political stripe or affiliation, to make sure that President-elect Obama does not walk alone. What he needs now is far more tangible than a vote. He needs our hearts, minds, and steadfast will. I stand before you ready to submit all three—with shining pride.

A weak economy, coupled with two wars abroad and a healthcare crisis, shall take the same determination to resolve as the election took to win. Please pledge with me to commit. As we stand shoulder to shoulder under the direction of a new commander in chief who bears the burden of a nation fractured by eight years of thoughtless policy.

As cliché as these words may be, and as long as they have been a part of my oration, they have never possessed a much more poignant meaning: “God Bless America”.

Preview: What do these Democratic wins mean for Electoral Politics? By HSG

Barack Obama is the new President-Elect of the United States. The Democrats will control at least 56 seats in the Senate, and an estimated 258 of 435 seats in the House of Representatives.

In addition, Democrats won state races for Governor, State Legislatures, and other offices across the country.

What did the GOP do wrong? What did the Democrats do right? What does this mean for the American political landscape?

We will examine these questions tomorrow in a special Post-Election exploration of the revival of the Democrats and the fall of the Republicans.

Everything's Bigger in Texas - Even Irony - By Kelly Fero, Democratic Strategist, Austin, TX

Forty-four years ago, a Democrat from Texas signed the most far-reaching legislation in history to secure African Americans the vote, then famously remarked that he had just cost his political party the South for at least a generation.

Last night, America voted for an African-American to be their next President — and his stunning victory came, to a large degree, courtesy of a Republican from Texas.

If Lyndon Johnson and his fellow Texans were the improbable champions of civil rights, having grown up in the segregated South, George W. Bush and his Lone Star State ideologues were supposed to be the compassionate conservatives. Yet, Bush’s failed presidency ushered in the national hunger for change that propelled the first African American into the Oval Office.

They say everything is bigger in Texas — even irony, it would appear.

Happy Election Day

This is for anyone who has ever worked on a political campaign.

(WARNING: One Politico.com reader said he wanted to throw his laptop at the wall halfway through the video)



And a "thank you" to supporters:



From http://www.youtube.com/user/NatHeadquartersObama

One More Day

With only one more day until the Presidential Election, here is what we're looking at:

1) Barack Obama's grandmother passed away due to cancer this morning. The McCain campaign has offered their condolences.

2) Chuck Todd gives his Election Eve synopsis. Could he be the next Tim Russert? Yesterday he was considered a dark horse, today he's at the top of the list.

3) Pundits on "Morning Joe" discuss the growing success of the Democratic Party - particularly the success of the Obama campaign - and the uniqueness of this election.

4) Although we can no longer find a specific post for it, Politico.com reports that 40% of Florida's total population has already voted!

5) 14 Pundits contribute predictions to this year's Washington Post Crystal Ball Contest.

6) Finally, those of us who are Democrats and Irish-Americans will certainly appreciate this video from the homeland.




One last thing, make sure you know where to vote. Of course, it is likely that 100% of this blog's readers know exactly where to vote, and at least half of them probably voted early. But just in case, visit www.BarackObama.com.

Actual Racists for Obama

Early last week, we posted an article from Politico.com titled "Racists for Obama" for our discussion on the Bradley Effect and the shifting lines of prejudice. However, the Bradley Effect hardly compares to what we have found today.

Esquire.com reported yesterday that there are many White Supremacists that are supporting Barack Obama for President. While he notes that it is hardly a scientific poll of the community, author David Peisner includes statements from the different racists.

"I don't hate black people. I just think it's in the best interest of the races to be separated as much as possible. See, I'm a leftist. I'm not a rightist. I hate the transnational corporations far more than any black person" said Tom Metzger, former KKK Grand Dragon and a 1980 Democratic congressional candidate.

Erich Gliebe, Chairman of the National Alliance, told Esquire "Obama might be a better candidate for our cause because he's racially conscious… Young whites in universities, they've been stripped of any kind of racial identity. Obama may be a racist in a positive sense for his people… They'll see that non-white Americans are allowed to be proud of who they are, to be racially conscious, to talk about their people or their community without being attacked as being racist… I don't think McCain even acknowledges that a white race exists. He's all about granting amnesty to illegal aliens."

Rocky Suhayda, Chairman of the American Nazi Party says "we have a black man, who loves his own kind, belongs to a Black-Nationalist religion, is married to a black women -- when usually negroes who have 'made it' immediately land a white spouse as a kind of prize - that's the kind of negro that I can respect. Any time that a prominent person embraces their racial heritage in a positive manner, it's good for all racially minded folks."

In fact, many Klansmen and other white "racially minded" individuals have shifted ideology in recent years to supporting segregation instead of outright hatred of non-whites. But there are still some White Supremacists that disagree.

"Obama, I think he's a piece of sh**" said Ron Edwards, Imperial Wizard of the Imperial Klans of America. "I don't care that his mother was white…I'm going Republican and I talked to my guys and most of them are voting for McCain too."

On the other side of the spectrum, Esquire interviewed a Black Nationalist supporting McCain.

"Finding out Barack Obama is the Democratic nominee for president was one of the saddest days in black history. Another legacy of black death is about to begin, just like it began back in the '60s with probably the greatest traitor to black people in modern-day history, Martin Luther King. .. he's not even a black man in the terms of what real black people consider a black man. He's of African and white descent. How easily he dismissed his affiliation with Reverend Wright, was a clear indication that this is a politician, not a man of any real conviction. The same way he threw away that Reverend, once he becomes president, he must throw away black people" said Yahanna, General of the Israelite School of Universal Practical Knowledge, a black supremacist group that believes those of African decent are part of the lost tribes of Israel.

This goes to show that politics is not nearly as complex and surprising as extreme racists.

Early Voting Troubles?

There has never been such a large push for early voting, as there has been this year—especially by the Obama campaign. And it has undeniably helped his chance to win next Tuesday.

And voting early has never hurt anybody, right? Well apparently in Florida last week an old lady felt threatened enough to call 911 while voting early. In West Palm Beach she went in to vote and felt so threatened by "Obama's thugs" that she called 911 and left. This is just the beginning.

Racism, latent or otherwise, and how it will affect voters at the polls is a big concern this year. Whether it be public demonstrations, disfranchisement at the polls, or threats between supporters.

However, racism is not the only election day anxiety people are facing. Recently Time Magazine wrote an article about the 7 things that could go wrong on election day: Faulty databases, voting machine issues, and “Mickey Mouse” registrants are only a few of many concerns voters have this year.

Obama and McCain’s campaigns are both amassing lawyers by the hundreds to ensure their candidates’ supporters are protected on election day.

Will Democrats Win the 60th Senate Seat Next Year — in Texas? By Kelly Fero, Democratic Strategist, Austin TX

Questions abound as voters in some states cast their ballots and others prepare to go to the polls next Tuesday in what everyone agrees is a groundbreaking election. One of the most urgent is: Will Democrats win a 60-seat filibuster majority in the U.S. Senate?

The short answer might very well be: Yes — but not till 2009. In Texas.

The delicate Democratic majority of 51-49 currently depends on Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, a Socialist, and Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, a registered Independent, caucusing with the Democrats. That’s why party leaders are pushing for a nine-seat net gain next week to give Democrats the magic 60 number. And Alaska Senator Ted Stevens’ conviction this week on charges of failing to report more than $250,000 in gifts may have brought that goal even closer.

Today’s average of the most recent polls shows Democrats ahead in eight Senate races, including in Stevens’ Alaska. They are close in two other states.

If Democrats fall a seat short next week, the eyes of the political world will turn to Texas next year, where senior Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison is expected to step down early to launch a bid for Governor in the 2010 elections. Her resignation could trigger a special election to replace her for the remainder of her term (which ends in 2012). That special is likely to take place in September 2009 — and be the all-important battle for the Democrats’ sixthieth seat.

Certain to jump into the special election is former state comptroller John Sharp, the state’s leading Democrat. Republicans most often mentioned include curent Lt. Governor David Dewhurst and former Secretary of State Roger Williams.

Stay tuned, because the Democrats’ 60-seat goal could depend on an off-year election in the reddest-of red Lone Star State.

Palin in 2012

Palin has indeed been breaking free of the McCain campaign in recent days. She probably has her doubts as to the success of her ticket this year, and her taste of the national level has probably given her ambition for this stage in the future. That being said – it is unclear whether or not the GOP will take her again.

For starters, she has turned-off the “intellectual” Republicans of the national media. Commentators such as Christopher Buckley, Thomas Friedman, and even Peggy Noonan have decided that her lack of intellect has been a drag on the party and been a major factor towards the anticipated McCain defeat. More important – however – they would not trust her as a future President.

Of course the conservative and populist GOP base adorns her. But will they four years from now? Just as John Edwards – popular among populist Democrats – had difficulty four years after his veep candidacy, Palin will face an uphill battle in 2012. The most important reason will be that they will not see her as electable.

A much more suitable candidate would be Governor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota. Not only is he popular in the Midwest, he agrees with the base on almost all of the conservative issues. While he is not as well known as Palin will be, he will offer a better chance against a President Obama. Other viable options would be Bobby Jindal of Louisiana or Charlie Crist of Florida. Either way, a governor would be the GOP’s best option because of a lack of popularity among Republican Senators.

We would not put our money on a Palin nomination in 2012, although it is certainly conceivable that it is her goal at this point in 2008.

Showdown in Georgia

Pundits are becoming increasingly interested in Georgia this year, as the traditionally red state has been highly targeted by the Obama campaign, has seen record early-voting turnout, and has a competitive U.S. Senate election.

A column on the Huffington Post reported Friday that Obama could pull off an upset in Georgia because of an unusually high expected turnout among African Americans. In 2004, blacks made up about 25% of the voting population in the Peach State, but are expected to make up over 30% of the electorate this year due to the excitement of a black candidate.

The Obama campaign is capitalizing on this excitement. Between January and October, the campaign registered 400,000 new voters - about half of them black. In addition, Obama has seen success in early voting operations there. He is ahead by 6% among early voters - over 18% of the state's electorate. According to Politico today, 35% of early voters have been African Americans.

And Obama's success in Georgia has helped another Democrat on the ticket. Recent Democratic polls show Democrat Jim Martin within striking distance of incumbent GOP Senator Saxby Chambliss, and that is without weighing the higher expected black turnout.

Concerned about those prospects, the RNSC has released tough ads in Georgia characterizing Martin as a super-liberal.



Congressman David Scott (D-GA) of the Atlanta suburbs has not been so fortunate. He is facing a tough re-election against Republican physician Deborah Honeycutt, who has raised nearly $5 million and has been trying to tie Scott to corruption. But Scott, an African American, still has a lead in a traditionally Democratic district.

Of course, the Republicans still have the upper-hand in the Empire State of the South. The Presidential RCP Average has McCain leading Obama by 5.3% in Georgia and the GOP still has a strong Evangelical base to help their 72-Hour Program.

But if the Democrats are able to pull off upsets in Georgia, it will have a serious impact on the American political psyche, demonstrating that progressives can win anywhere with the smarts and effort needed of them - even in the Bible Belt.

Will Palin Meet the Press or Face the Nation?

Weekly Standard editor Bill Kristol – the same man that called for Sen. John McCain to fire his campaign in a column recently – told Fox News Sunday that Gov. Sarah Palin should appear on a Sunday morning talk show next week.

"I'm told she would be happy to do a TV show, if she hasn't gotten authorization…I hope she breaks free this week," said Kristol.

So far, McCain, Obama, and Biden have all appeared on Sunday morning talk shows, including a McCain appearance on Meet the Press this morning. However, Palin has declined every offer to appear.

What Are the Costs and Benefits of Appearing?

According to Chris Wallace on Fox News Sunday "this has been a challenge that all serious candidates have always felt they had to meet."

But it is not typically undecided voters who watch these talk shows. There is little-to-no benefit of such an appearance if it will not help win votes.

The potential costs, however, are very real. Palin has not had an impressive record in interviews so far. As mentioned before, she failed to name a Supreme Court decision other than Roe v Wade and defended the claim that she had foreign policy expertise because of Alaska's proximity to Russia during her interview with Katie Couric.

In front of Charles Gibson she failed to give a definitive support or opposition to the Bush Doctrine – quite likely because she was unfamiliar with the term. Most recently, in an interview with a local news station, she said that the Vice President was "in charge of the Senate".



While these interviews did little good for the ticket, they damaged Palin's reputation immensely as these clips from the interviews have been replayed over and over in the media. The risk of Palin making another mistake like the ones we've seen is too great for the McCain campaign to allow a Palin appearance on a Sunday morning talk show. For once, the McCain campaign seems to be making a smart and calculated decision. Perhaps Kristol was wrong about both of his assertions.